Q4 2025 Earnings Season First Two Weeks: What We Know So Far

Two weeks into the S&P 500 Q4 2025 earnings season, about 13% of companies have reported 75% beat EPS and 69% beat revenue, but the surprise magnitude is still running below recent averages. Blended growth is tracking about +8.2% YoY for earnings and +7.8% YoY for revenues, with leadership from Information Technology and Materials and a continued drag from Energy. This review summarizes the early scorecard, the “Magnificent 7” concentration effect, and what to watch next as reporting volume accelerates (with 103 S&P 500 companies scheduled in the coming week).

author: Economician

264

published:Jan 26, 2026 9:59

category:stocks

How far along are we?

By Friday, January 23, 2026, about 13% of the S&P 500 had reported Q4 2025 results (roughly ~65 companies).

One week earlier (January 16, 2026), about 7% had reported (roughly ~35 companies).

Beat rates (EPS and revenue)

Week 1 (through Jan 16):

EPS beat rate: 79% of reporters beat EPS estimates
Revenue beat rate: 67% beat revenue estimates
Beat magnitude: earnings +5.8% vs estimates; revenues +0.3% vs estimates

Week 2 (through Jan 23):

EPS beat rate: 75% of reporters beat EPS estimates
Revenue beat rate: 69% beat revenue estimates
Beat magnitude: earnings +5.3% vs estimates; revenues +0.6% vs estimates

Key takeaway: beats are still healthy, but EPS beat rates and beat magnitude are slightly below recent averages, while revenue beats are roughly in-line with history and the revenue surprise magnitude remains modest.

Growth: the season is tracking solid YoY expansion

FactSet’s blended view (actuals + estimates) as of Jan 23:

Earnings growth: +8.2% YoY
Revenue growth: +7.8% YoY

If these hold through the season, it will mark the 10th straight quarter of earnings growth and the 21st straight quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Sector shape: breadth improving, but Energy is a drag

Earnings: 7 of 11 sectors are (so far / projected) showing YoY earnings growth, led by Information Technology and Materials. Declines are led by Energy, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary.
Revenues: 10 of 11 sectors are (so far / projected) showing YoY revenue growth; Energy is the notable laggard.

“Magnificent 7” concentration remains a defining feature

FactSet flags that the top contributors to S&P 500 earnings growth for Q4 2025 include NVIDIA, Boeing, Alphabet, Micron, and Microsoft—with 3 of the top 5 coming from the “Magnificent 7” cohort.

FactSet estimates the Magnificent 7 are expected to deliver ~20.3% earnings growth in Q4, versus ~4.1% for the other 493 companies (blended).

Guidance tone: early read

As of the FactSet Jan 23 cut, for Q1 2026 guidance, more companies had issued negative EPS guidance than positive (6 negative vs 4 positive in the early tally).

This is still a small sample and will shift as megacaps and cyclicals report, but it reinforces that the market is scrutinizing forward commentary as much as “beat/meet/raise.”

Market context: valuations are not forgiving

FactSet’s forward 12-month P/E was around 22.2 (above 5- and 10-year averages) in the first week update—meaning the bar for “good enough” results is elevated.
Reuters also noted the market entering earnings with high valuations and heavy focus on whether AI investment is translating into tangible returns as mega-cap tech reports approach.

What matters most for the next phase (Weeks 3–5)

Megacap tech read-through on AI monetization and capex discipline (a key driver of index-level growth expectations).
Breadth outside the “Magnificent 7”—whether the “other 493” can keep pace as more industrials, health care, staples, and discretionary names report.
Energy’s drag—both earnings and revenue headwinds remain a swing factor for aggregate results.