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Market Condition: Buy / Intraday Bullish, Medium-Term Cautious
The EUR/USD H1 chart is showing a modest recovery attempt after a broader short-term downtrend. Price is trading around 1.13666, while the 14-period DEMA has flattened, and price is trying to hold just above it. More importantly, the Parabolic SAR dots are now below the price, which suggests the latest intraday bias has shifted from bearish to mildly bullish.
From a price-action perspective, the pair is trying to build a base above the 1.1360–1.1365 area. As long as this support holds, the market can continue its rebound toward the next resistance at 1.1385, followed by the marked target zone near 1.1408–1.1410. On the downside, the first support sits at 1.1350, and if that level breaks, the next support comes in around 1.1330. That means the structure is constructive for an intraday recovery, but only while the price remains above the nearby support band.
Momentum also supports a rebound scenario. The stochastic oscillator is around 40/28, with the fast line rebounding from near-oversold territory. That does not confirm a major trend reversal by itself, but it does support the case for a short-term bounce as long as buyers keep control above 1.1350.
Fundamental Note:
The latest macro backdrop is mixed for EUR/USD. Reuters reported on June 25 that the dollar eased after U.S. inflation data softened immediate rate-hike expectations, with May PCE inflation at 4.1% year-on-year, July Fed hike odds falling to about 30% from 34.2%, and the euro rising to around $1.1375 on the day.
At the same time, the broader dollar backdrop is still firm. Reuters reported on June 24 that the dollar index touched a 13-month high, supported by expectations for further Fed tightening and safe-haven demand, with the euro slipping to about $1.1357. Reuters also reported on June 11 that the ECB raised rates for the first time since 2023, while warning that inflation pressures were broadening even as eurozone growth remained weak.
That leaves EUR/USD caught between a softer immediate U.S. inflation reaction and a still-hawkish broader Fed backdrop. For this H1 chart, that mix fits a short-term rebound inside a still fragile wider structure.
Trading Signal:
Signal: Buy on intraday stability
Entry: 1.1368
Stop Loss: 1.1348
Take Profit 1: 1.1385
Take Profit 2: 1.1408
This setup favors a controlled intraday long position because the price is trying to stabilize above the DEMA, Parabolic SAR has flipped supportive, and stochastic is recovering from weak levels. A break below 1.1348 would invalidate the bullish intraday setup and shift the bias back to downside pressure.
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