Q4 2025 Earnings Season: Beats, Sectors & Guidance (Feb. 8)

1) Where we are in the season (S&P 500 “official” scoreboard)

As of Feb 6, 2026, about 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results. Of those reporters, ~76% beat EPS estimates, and the index is tracking ~13.0% blended earnings growth for the quarter. On the top line, the season has also been firm: ~73% of reporters beat revenue estimates, with the S&P 500 tracking ~8.8% blended revenue growth.

A key nuance: the mix of beats has mattered more than the headline beat rate. “Beat + raise” has been rewarded, while “beat but guide cautiously” (or “beat but capex ramps hard”) has often been punished—especially in mega-cap tech.

2) Beat rates by index: S&P 500 vs Nasdaq-100 vs Dow 30

S&P 500 (season-to-date, broad index view):

• EPS beat rate: ~76%
• Revenue beat rate: ~73%

Nasdaq-100 (among the most known companies of NDX reporters, not the full 100):

Based on the Nasdaq-100 constituents such as (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA, AMD, QCOM, PEP, PYPL, AMGN, SBUX, BKR, LIN, HON, ARM, NFLX), the sample is running:

• EPS beat rate: ~82% (14/17 beat; 3 miss)
• Revenue beat rate: ~94% (16/17 beat; 1 miss)

Dow 30 (among the most known companies of DJIA reporters, not the full 30):

From the Dow constituents such as (e.g., JPM, GS, MSFT, AAPL, BA, CAT, AMZN, DIS, HON, IBM, PG, UNH, VZ, MMM, CVX, AMGN, AXP), the sample is running:

• EPS beat rate: ~82% (14/17 beat; 2 miss; 1 inline)
• Revenue beat rate: ~77% (13/17 beat; 4 miss)

Important: Nasdaq-100 and Dow rates above are sample-based. For the full-index “official” beat rates, the most consistently published public scorecard is the S&P 500 (FactSet).

3) Sector read-through (what the tape is telling you)

Financials: strong prints, but guidance sensitivity is rising

The first-wave financial reporters such as (JPM, BAC, WFC, C, GS, MS, BK, PNC, USB, BLK, SCHW, IBKR, AXP, PGR) mostly beat EPS and often beat revenues, consistent with a season where capital-markets activity and fee lines are supporting results.

What investors are listening for now: credit cost trajectory, deposit betas/funding costs, and whether management teams sound more cautious on loan growth.

Tech / “AI complex”: beats are common—capex and commentary drive the reaction

The dominant pattern has been solid numbers from mega-cap and large-cap tech, paired with heavy scrutiny on forward spending (AI infrastructure, data centers, chips) and any signs of demand normalization. That’s why you can see down moves even on beats (e.g., AMD/Qualcomm/Arm-type reactions among many companies). The market narrative has been especially sensitive to large capex guidance and the implied margin path.

Industrials: “execution beats macro,” but pockets are mixed

Your industrial set is broadly constructive (CAT, HON, GE, MMM), while Boeing is the headline outlier in most known sticks (massive swing vs an expected loss). This is a classic “results vs quality” sector: backlog/price realization and margin commentary matter as much as the quarter itself.

Consumer: resilient demand, but dispersion is widening

Consumer staples are relatively steady (PEP beat; PG narrowly missed revenue), while discretionary and consumer-facing service names show bigger divergence (e.g., DIS beat; SBUX EPS miss; AMZN EPS fractionally light but revenue ahead). The message: consumers still spend, but brand/segment positioning and pricing power are separating winners and losers.

Health care: strong GLP-1/innovation winners, but not everyone clears the bar

Most known stocks includes LLY (beat), AMGN (beat), JNJ (inline EPS, rev beat), UNH (inline EPS, rev miss), PFE (beat). The market is rewarding clear growth runways and clean forward commentary, while punishing ambiguity on pricing/volume and 2026 trajectory.

Energy: results OK, but the sector is the season’s laggard on revenue

Even with individual beats (XOM, CVX, BKR), the broader season backdrop shows Energy as the only S&P 500 sector posting a year-over-year revenue decline in FactSet’s season tracking—i.e., the sector is working against a tougher price/margin setup than tech or health care.

4) Biggest surprises so far Among the top stocks

Largest positive EPS surprises / “wow” prints:

• Boeing (BA): huge swing versus an expected loss (standout season outlier in list).
• Prologis (PLD): EPS far above forecast (very large upside surprise).
• Toyota Motor (TM): very large EPS upside surprise (a major beat).
• Arm (ARM) & Reddit (RDDT): meaningful upside EPS surprises (and high attention names).
• SanDisk (SNDK): very large beat vs forecast.

Notable disappointments / mixed beats:

• PayPal (PYPL): EPS and revenue both below forecast (double miss).
• NextEra (NEE): miss vs forecast on both EPS and revenue.
• American Airlines (AAL): EPS miss and slight revenue miss.
• Starbucks (SBUX): EPS miss despite revenue beat (classic “profitability/guidance” sensitivity).

5) The “so what”: what to watch next

1. Guidance quality (not just the quarter): the market is rewarding clarity on 2026 demand and margin path.
2. AI capex vs profitability tradeoff: strong results can still sell off if spending ramps faster than expected.
3. Sector leadership: FactSet’s season math highlights revenue growth being lifted by Information Technology, Communication Services, Health Care, and Industrials—that’s where the bar is highest and where reactions can be most violent.
4. What the season implies for next quarters: analysts are looking for double-digit earnings growth into 2026, so the market is effectively trading forward confidence, not backward beats.