English
پارسی
Technical Analysis
The daily GBP/USD chart shows that sterling is recovering after forming a base around the 1.3200 zone. Price is trading near 1.34585, above the 20-period Triple Exponential Moving Average, which has turned higher and is now supporting the latest rebound. This shift suggests that short-term momentum has improved and that buyers have regained some control after the late-March weakness.
The chart structure is constructive, but not yet a full breakout. Price has moved back above the 1.3350 support area and is now pressing the 1.3450-1.3500 resistance region. A sustained break above 1.3500 would strengthen the bullish case and open the way toward 1.3550 first, followed by 1.3700. On the downside, 1.3350 is the first key support, while 1.3200 remains the broader floor that buyers need to defend to preserve the recovery structure.
Momentum is supportive rather than overstretched. The RSI stands at 57, which is above the neutral 50 line and points to improving upside momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Volume has also remained relatively active during the rebound phase, which supports the idea that this move is more than just a temporary bounce. Overall, the near-term bias is moderately bullish while price holds above 1.3350.
Fundamental Note
The latest macro backdrop is mildly supportive for GBP/USD, mainly because the U.S. dollar has weakened as geopolitical stress eased. Reuters reported that the dollar is heading for its largest weekly drop since January 2026 as hopes around a U.S.-Iran ceasefire improved risk sentiment and reduced demand for the greenback as a safe haven. Reuters also reported that sterling posted its biggest one-day gain in three weeks after the ceasefire announcement and traded around $1.342, then held near $1.3407 as markets continued to react to Middle East developments.
At the same time, sterling’s upside is not fully open-ended. Reuters said UK services firms reported the biggest rise in input costs since 2021, while business optimism faded and the services PMI slowed to 50.5 in March. Reuters also reported that markets have scaled back expectations for Bank of England tightening, with some analysts arguing that sterling’s gains may remain limited because the Bank of England is still seen as less hawkish than some peers. That leaves GBP/USD supported by dollar softness but still constrained by a mixed UK growth and policy backdrop.
Trading Signal
Signal: Buy on breakout
Entry: 1.3505
Stop Loss: 1.3345
Take Profit 1: 1.3550
Take Profit 2: 1.3700
This setup is based on the rebound above the short-term trend average, the recovery from the 1.3200 base, and the improving RSI profile. A daily close back below 1.3350 would weaken the bullish structure materially and increase the risk of a return toward 1.3200.
Comments