English
پارسی
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD hourly chart shows a constructive short-term bullish structure. Price is trading near 1.17591, above both the 20-period EMA and the 50-period EMA, while the Parabolic SAR remains below price. This alignment suggests that near-term trend control remains with buyers and that the pair is still trading within an active upward leg.
Recent price action also shows a sequence of higher lows and higher highs, especially after the rebound from the 1.1700-1.1720 area. That zone now acts as the first important support band. On the upside, the pair is pressing a nearby resistance zone around 1.1760-1.1770. A clean break above that area would strengthen the bullish continuation case and open room toward 1.1800 first, followed by 1.1850.
Momentum remains positive, but it is becoming stretched. The stochastic oscillator is high at 88/77, which signals strong upside momentum but also warns that the pair is approaching overbought conditions on the hourly timeframe. In practical terms, the trend remains bullish, but immediate upside may require either a breakout confirmation or a brief consolidation before the next leg higher.
Fundamental Note
The latest macro backdrop is mildly supportive for EUR/USD. The dollar index was at 98.39, near its lowest level since March 2, while the euro rose to $1.1759, as markets balanced the U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping against renewed hopes for diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. That softer-dollar backdrop is helping keep EUR/USD supported near the top of its recent range.
The euro is also getting some support from the rates side. Reuters reported on April 13 that ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said any future ECB rate rise would depend on whether the energy shock produces second-round inflation effects, while traders were pricing a 70% chance of a third ECB hike by December. In a separate Reuters report, markets were described as pricing higher-for-longer ECB rates, with as much as an 80% chance of an April hike and roughly 2.6% seen for the key rate over the next 15 months. That keeps the euro fundamentally underpinned, even though any renewed escalation in the Middle East could still revive safe-haven demand for the dollar.
Trading Signal
Signal: Buy on breakout
Entry: 1.1762
Stop Loss: 1.1728
Take Profit 1: 1.1800
Take Profit 2: 1.1850
This setup is based on price holding above both moving averages, the Parabolic SAR staying below price, and the market pressing resistance from a rising structure. The only caution is the elevated stochastic reading, which means confirmation above resistance matters more than chasing price inside the range.
Comments