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Global Macro & Central Bank Update — September
- Markets navigated a busy week of data and policy decisions:
- The ECB left all rates unchanged (Deposit Rate: 2.00%, Main Refinancing Rate: 2.15%), signaling a cautious stance as inflation cools and growth remains weak. Neutral-to-dovish tone for the euro.
- CBRT surprised with a larger-than-expected cut, lowering the one-week repo rate to 40.50%. The lira weakened as easing came earlier than expected despite persistent inflation.
- U.S. Inflation showed mixed signals: core steady at 3.1% y/y, but headline CPI ticked up to 2.9%, the highest since early 2024. That keeps Fed cut bets in check.
- U.S. Labor Market softened, with jobless claims climbing to a three-month high (263K) and real wages slipping -0.1% m/m, hinting at cooling momentum.
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