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Technical Analysis
The daily BTC/USD chart shows a meaningful recovery phase after the late-January to early-February breakdown. Price is trading around 73,378.00, above the 20-day EMA at 70,008.77 and the 50-day EMA at 72,622.20. That is a constructive shift in the short-term structure, because buyers have managed to push bitcoin back above both key moving averages.
Even so, the chart is not yet a fully confirmed bullish trend continuation. The 20-day EMA remains below the 50-day EMA, which means the broader medium-term structure is still in repair rather than fully reversed. Price is also approaching the next resistance area around 75,000, while the higher resistance band near 80,500-85,000 remains the larger upside zone to watch. On the downside, the first support comes in around the 72,600-70,000 area, with deeper chart support near 67,000 and then 64,000.
Momentum has improved, but it is not extreme. RSI is at 58, which places it above the neutral 50 line and points to improving upside momentum without yet entering overbought territory. On-Balance Volume has stabilized after a long decline, but it still does not show a strong breakout in participation. In practical terms, the chart favors a cautiously bullish recovery bias, but the market still needs a clean push through resistance to confirm stronger trend continuation.
Fundamental Note
The latest macro backdrop has become somewhat more supportive for bitcoin. Reuters reported that after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, the dollar fell to a one-month low against major peers and bitcoin climbed above $71,000 as investors rotated back into risk assets. Reuters also reported on April 10 that the dollar was on track for its largest weekly drop since January as markets looked ahead to U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad and as traders assumed oil shipping could recover if the ceasefire holds. A softer dollar and improving risk sentiment are constructive for bitcoin in the near term.
At the same time, the macro environment is not fully risk-free. Reuters reported that U.S. CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year in March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly four years, driven heavily by fuel. Separately, Hong Kong granted its first licences for fiat-backed stablecoins on April 10, reinforcing the longer-term regulated digital-asset infrastructure story. Together, those developments create a mixed fundamental picture for bitcoin: sticky inflation can limit the pace of Fed easing, but a weaker dollar and continued regulatory maturation remain supportive.
Trading Signal
Signal: Buy on breakout
Entry: 73,600
Stop Loss: 70,900
Take Profit 1: 75,000
Take Profit 2: 80,500
This setup is based on price trading above both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, RSI holding above 50, and the chart pressing a key recovery zone. A daily close back below 72,622 would weaken the bullish structure, while a break above 75,000 would strengthen the case for an extension toward the higher resistance zone.
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