OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2025

The data, analysis and any other information (the “information”) contained in the Monthly Oil Market Report (the “MOMR”) is for informational purposes only and is neither intended as a substitute for advice from busi ness, finance, investment consultant or other professional; nor is it meant to be a benchmark or input data to a benchmark of any kind.

author: Economician

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23 minutes

category:commodities

Oil Market Highlights

Crude Oil Price Movements

In August, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.24 month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $69.73/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $2.29, m-o-m, to average $67.26/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $3.22, m-o-m, to average $64.02/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $2.19, m-o-m, to average $69.23/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first-month spread widened by 93¢, m-o-m, to average $3.24/b. The market structure for all major crude benchmarks, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman, remained in backwardation in August, reflecting solid physical crude market fundamentals, despite heavy speculative selling pressure weighing on front-month contracts. Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bearish on crude oil futures in August, with combined NYMEX and ICE WTI contracts moving net short during the last three weeks of the month.

World Economy

The global economy maintained its stable economic growth trajectory, supported by the consistent and strong momentum observed in 1H25. The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.0% for 2025 and at 3.1% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and at 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and at 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, and Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and at 1.5% for 2026.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while oil demand in the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is expected to expand by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 is also unchanged at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.7 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 509 tb/d in August, m-o-m, to average about 42.40 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In August, USGC refinery margins continued to trend upwards, showing gains for the second consecutive month, as strength from the top section of the barrel outweighed the middle distillate and residual fuel weakness. However, in Rotterdam and Singapore, margins declined m-o-m, pressured by the downward correction in gasoil crack spreads and softer fuel oil margins. Additionally, strong refinery runs led to lengthening product balances, weighing on margins for middle distillates and residual fuel. According to preliminary data, global refinery intake in August rose further to reach 83.9 mb/d.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates largely recovered in August from the previous month’s declines. Suezmax rates saw the strongest gains, with spot freight rates on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast route increasing by 38%, m-o-m. Average VLCC spot freight rates were supported by gains on East of Suez routes. Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 19%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route increased by a more moderate 3%. The Aframax market was mixed, with spot freight rates around the Mediterranean up by about 9%, while rates on the Indonesia-to-East route declined by 7%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot rates were broadly lower, with only the Middle East-to-East route registering growth, up by 13%, m-o-m. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates around the Mediterranean declined by 1%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In August, US crude imports increased to 6.5 mb/d, amid higher inflows from Brazil, Mexico and Canada. US crude exports averaged 3.9 mb/d, the highest since March, with flows increasing to South Korea and India. US product imports reached a 12-month high, while product exports were broadly unchanged, m-o-m. In OECD Europe, crude imports picked up in July, approaching the five-year average. Product imports into the region remained at the bottom of the five-year range, while product exports improved seasonally. Japan's crude imports recovered slightly, m-o-m, in July to average 2.0 mb/d. Product imports, including LPG, recovered from the more than 5-year low seen the month before, supported by gains in gasoline and naphtha. China's crude imports in July averaged 11.1 mb/d, supported by inventory buying. China’s product imports, including LPG, averaged 2.4 mb/d in July, with gains led by LPG and fuel oil. India's crude imports dropped to a 22-month low of 4.4 mb/d in July, amid tariff- and sanction-related uncertainties. Product imports fell back from a seven-month high the month before to average 1.2 mb/d but remained well above the five-year range. Product outflows from India saw declines across all major product categories, led by gasoline.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary July 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories stood at 2,761 mb, which is 2.4 mb higher than the previous month. At this level, commercial stocks in the OECD were 66.5 mb lower than the same month last year, 128.5 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 208.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 3.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 1.3 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,317 mb. This was 17.3 mb lower than a year ago, 71.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and 144.8 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,444 mb. This is 49.2 mb lower than a year ago, 56.6 mb less than the latest five-year average, and 63.7 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, in July to stand at 59.6 days. This is 1.3 days lower than the level registered in July 2024, 4.4 days less than the latest five-year average, and 2.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 42.5 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is also unchanged from the previous month at 43.1 mb/d, approximately 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection.

Crude Oil Price Movements

In August, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.24, m-o-m, to settle at $69.73/b. All ORB component-related crude benchmarks dropped, which largely offset an increase in most official selling prices for the Asian market, particularly for medium sour grades.

The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped in August by $2.29, m-o-m, to average $67.26/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $3.22, m-o-m, to average $64.02/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped in August by $2.19, m-o-m, to settle at $69.23/b.

The ICE Brent–NYMEX WTI front-month spread widened in August, as WTI came under heavier speculative selling pressure compared with ICE Brent. The spread averaged $3.24/b, up 93¢ m-o-m.

Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bearish on crude oil futures in August, with combined NYMEX and ICE WTI contracts moving net short during the last three weeks of the month. Speculators had been steadily reducing bullish bets in WTI since mid-July, fuelling uncertainty among market participants, increasing volatility, and exerting downward pressure on prices. Money managers also cut bullish positions in ICE Brent, selling an equivalent of 55 mb in August.

The structure of all three main crude oil futures contracts – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman – remained in backwardation in August, despite heavy speculative selling pressure weighing on front-month contracts. This reflected solid physical crude market fundamentals and a positive near-term global oil supply/demand outlook. The forward curves of major benchmarks were consistently in backwardation, particularly sour crude grades, which found further support from firm demand by Asia-Pacific refiners and concerns about sour crude supply amid sanctions. This boosted demand for prompt-loading cargoes, including from the Middle East. A decline in US crude stocks also lent support to the NYMEX WTI forward curve.

Premiums of light sweet crude over medium sour grades narrowed in Asia and on the US Gulf Coast (USGC), in line with a sharp decline in the Brent–Dubai spread, which moved into a deep discount. This reflected a stronger sour crude market amid concerns over supply disruptions to medium sour grades due to sanctions and geopolitical developments. However, though sweet–sour crude differentials in Europe widened slightly, they remained relatively low.