OPEC Report | October 2025

In September 2025, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by 66¢ month-on-month (m-o-m) to average $70.39/b, reflecting modest price support from Middle Eastern grades. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by 32¢ to $67.58/b, while NYMEX WTI declined 49¢ to $63.53/b. The GME Oman front-month contract climbed 81¢ to $70.04/b, narrowing its discount to Brent. The Brent–WTI spread widened by 81¢ to $4.05/b, highlighting persistent logistical and regional pricing differences.

author: Economician

Reading Time:

7 minutes

category:commodities

Oil Market Highlights

Crude Oil Price Movements

In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by 66¢, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $70.39/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by 32¢, m-o-m, to average $67.58/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by 49¢, m-o-m, to average $63.53/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased by 81¢, m-o-m, to average $70.04/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI front-month spread increased by 81¢, m-o-m, to average $4.05/b. The forward curves of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI flattened, but the front-end of the curve remained in backwardation. In contrast, the forward curve of GME Oman and Dubai strengthened. Hedge funds and other money managers maintained their bearish stance on crude oil futures in September, with combined NYMEX and ICE WTI positions remaining net short for most of the month.

World Economy

The global economy maintained its stable economic growth trajectory, supported by the consistent and strong momentum observed in 1H25. The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.0% for 2025 and at 3.1% for 2026. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and at 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.0% for 2025 and at 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026, and Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and at 1.5% for 2026.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at around 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d this year. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by around 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is projected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina once again as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 630 tb/d in September, m-o-m, to average about 43.05 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In September, refinery margins increased in line with seasonal trends at all three reported trading hubs. This was due to lower product output, given the heavy refinery maintenance season in the Northern Hemisphere, which led to upward pressure on product crack spreads and refining economics. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), middle distillates represented the primary source of strength, driven by limited availability and healthy exports. In Rotterdam, lower middle distillate output from Russia further contributed to a tightening of the diesel market, amid a pickup in gasoline exports to West Africa, and firm regional jet/kerosene requirements. In Singapore, gains were registered across the barrel, except high-sulphur fuel oil. Most of the strength emerged from gasoil, jet/kerosene, and naphtha, which was attributed to increased regional demand amid unplanned refinery outages and reduced product exports from China. According to preliminary data, the global refinery intake declined 1.4 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 82.2 mb/d in September.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates saw mixed movement in September. VLCC spot freight rates surged as increased outflows from the Middle East were reflected in tonnage lists. Spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route jumped 56%, m-o-m, and a similar gain was seen on the Middle East-to-West route. Activities were more muted in the Suezmax market, although balanced tonnage kept the market firm. Spot freight rates on the West Africa-to-USGC route edged up by 3%, m-o-m. Aframax spot freight rates experienced mixed movement, as disruptions limited tonnage demand in the Mediterranean. Cross-Med spot freight rates fell 6%, m-o-m. In contrast, rates on the Indonesia-to-East route rose 16%, m-o-m. Spot freight rates were also mixed in the clean tanker market. Some improvement was seen in short-haul rates, while the onset of refinery maintenance limited Middle East clean tonnage demand. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route declined by 10%, m-o-m, while rates on the Singapore-to-East route increased by 5%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In September, US crude imports returned to average seasonal levels, at 6.1 mb/d. US crude exports registered a high for the year so far at 4.3 mb/d. US product imports increased to 1.9 mb/d, while product exports edged lower, although they remained at robust levels. In OECD Europe, crude imports dipped seasonally in August but remained close to the five-year average. Product imports into the region also strengthened, except for diesel, with jet fuel inflows leading the gains. Japan’s crude imports continued to edge higher, m-o-m, in August to average 2.2 mb/d. Product imports, including LPG, continued to recover, supported by LPG and naphtha. China’s crude imports averaged 11.7 mb/d in August. Product imports, including LPG, declined in August but remained at a high level, supported by strong demand for petrochemical feedstocks. Product exports from China declined as decreases in jet fuel, naphtha, and gasoline outweighed higher flows of fuel oil and diesel. India’s crude imports picked up from a 22-month low the month before to average 4.6 mb/d in August. Product imports remain at the upper end of the five-year range, supported by LPG inflows. Product exports remained strong amid a recovery in flows to Europe.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary August 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories stood at 2,793 mb, which is 0.5 mb lower than the previous month. At this level, commercial stocks in the OECD were 45.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 92.2 mb less than the latest five-year average, and 192.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks fell by 10.4 mb, m-o-m, while product stocks rose by 9.9 mb, m-o-m. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,316 mb. This was 13.1 mb lower than a year ago, 49.9 mb below the latest five-year average, and 130.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,477 mb. This is 32.6 mb lower than a year ago, 42.3 mb less than the latest five-year average, and 61.0 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks in August rose by 0.2 days, m-o-m, to stand at 60.2 days. This is 1.1 days lower than the level registered in August 2024, 3.6 days less than the latest five-year average, and 2.9 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 42.5 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.4 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 also remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 43.1 mb/d, approximately 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 projection.

Crude Oil Price Movements

In September, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by 66¢, m-o-m, to average $70.39/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased in September by 32¢, m-o-m, to average $67.58/b, while the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by 49¢, m-o-m, to average $63.53/b. The GME Oman front-month contract increased in September by 81¢, m-o-m, to settle at $70.04/b.

The ICE Brent–NYMEX WTI front-month spread increased by 81¢, m-o-m, to average $4.05/b in September. The forward curves of key light sweet crude benchmarks ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI flattened in September, but the front end of the curves remained in backwardation. This suggests that, despite speculative activity in the futures market, near-term physical crude fundamentals remained broadly supportive. The forward curve of GME Oman and Dubai strengthened in September. The improvement was underpinned by firm buying interest for prompt-loading cargoes from Asia-Pacific refiners.

Hedge funds and other money managers maintained a bearish stance on crude oil futures in September, with combined NYMEX and ICE WTI positions remaining net short for most of the month. Speculative trading was volatile, amplifying price fluctuations. Speculators increased their short positions in ICE Brent to a four-month high while reducing their longs, amid concerns about an uncertain economic outlook, as well as concerns about the oil supply and demand outlook. However, money managers turned bullish on refined products, raising ICE gasoil net long positions by 33.4% over September to their highest level since March 2022.

Crude spot prices

Crude spot prices were mixed in September. Light sweet benchmarks edged lower m-o-m, while medium sour grades posted gains. North Sea Dated and WTI came under pressure from softer refinery demand amid the autumn maintenance season in the US and Europe, and higher WTI availability from the USGC. Additional downward pressure stemmed from selling activities in the futures market. However, losses were partly offset by more substantial refining margins, particularly for middle distillates, and stronger buying interest from Asia-Pacific refiners. Improved west-to-east arbitrage economics also supported demand for Atlantic Basin crudes.

In September, North Sea Dated and WTI front-month prices fell m-o-m by 34¢ and 45¢, to average $67.90/b and $63.63/b, respectively. The North Sea Dated–ICE Brent spread narrowed m-o-m, reflecting relatively balanced near-term supply and demand conditions despite seasonal maintenance. On a monthly average basis, the spread declined by 66¢ to a premium of 32¢/b in September.

However, medium sour crude prices increased m-o-m, supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions in Eastern Europe amid geopolitical tensions and sanctions, which boosted buying interest for similar grades in other regions, particularly the Middle East. The Dubai front-month price increased by 58¢ m-o-m to average $70.01/b.