OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – November 2025: Supply Glut Risks and Demand Outlook

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for November 2025 provides an updated view of global oil market dynamics as the industry heads into 2026. The report reviews recent trends in OPEC and non-OPEC+ production, revisions to demand growth, changes in global inventories, and the latest outlook for crude prices and refining margins. It also highlights regional shifts in consumption, supply contributions from key producers, and the balance between tightening fundamentals and rising concerns over a potential supply surplus next year. This post summarizes the key data, charts, and takeaways from the November 2025 MOMR for traders, analysts, and energy professionals.

author: Economician

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published:Nov 22, 2025 15:48

category:commodities

Oil Market Highlights

Crude Oil Price Movements

In October, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $5.19/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $65.20/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped in October by $3.63/b, m-o-m, to average $63.95/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $3.46/b, m-o-m, to average $60.07/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped in October by $5.09/b, m-o-m, to average at $64.95/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread averaged $3.88/b in October, down by 17¢/b, m-o-m. The market structure of all three crude benchmarks ─ ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman ─ weakened further in October. However, the front end of the forward curves remained in backwardation, reflecting healthy physical oil market fundamentals. Hedge funds and other money managers maintained a bearish stance on crude oil futures for most of October.

World Economy

The global economy is expected to maintain its stable growth trajectory, supported by the momentum observed so far this year. The global economic growth forecasts remain at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, both unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 1.8% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026. Japan’s economic growth forecast is revised up to 1.1% for 2025 and remains at 0.9% for 2026. The Eurozone economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2025 and 2026. China’s economic growth forecasts remain at 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.5% for both 2025 and 2026. Brazil’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026. Russia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 is revised down slightly to 1.6%, but remains at 1.5% for 2026.

World Oil Demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. In the OECD, oil demand is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d in 2025, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.

World Oil Supply

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.9 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, revised up slightly by around 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, mainly due to received historical data in 2025. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 remains at 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, to average 8.6 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 73 tb/d in October, m-o-m, to average about 43.02 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

Product Markets and Refining Operations

In October, refining margins improved across regions, with gains driven primarily by middle distillates, amid lower refinery processing rates due to heavy turnarounds, and lower crude prices. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), tighter product balances led to considerable gains for the middle and bottom sections of the barrel. In Rotterdam, margins exhibited the softest m-o-m increase compared to the other reported trading hubs, as gains in jet/kerosene and high-sulphur fuel oil offset losses in gasoline, naphtha, and low-sulphur fuel oil. A contraction in product availability, along with concerns about the impact of sanctions on product flows, contributed to the upward pressure in Northwest refining margins. In Singapore, subdued Chinese product exports and key refinery outages in the Middle East and India contributed to sizeable strength across the barrel in Southeast Asia. Global refinery intakes declined by about 1.7 mb/d, m-o-m, to stand at 80.2 mb/d in October; however, this remains about 781 tb/d higher, y-o-y.

Tanker Market

Dirty tanker spot freight rates moved higher across the board in October. VLCC spot freight rates showed further gains, building on the previous month’s surge in rates. Gains were driven by higher demand for long-haul routes. VLCC spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose by 3%, m-o-m, while rates on the Middle East-to-West route were 6% higher over the same period. Activities in the Suezmax market rose, supported by higher flows from Russia and the Middle East. Rates on the US Gulf Coast to Europe route increased 14%, m-o-m. Aframax spot freight rates rebounded amid higher flows from Europe and Russia. Cross-Med spot freight rates rose 31%, m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, spot freight rates declined on all monitored routes. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route fell by 15%, m-o-m, while rates around the Mediterranean dropped by about 1%, m-o-m.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In October, US crude imports fell to 5.6 mb/d, while crude exports from the US reached an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d. US product imports fell back from the strong performances seen in the previous two months to average 1.6 mb/d, while product exports edged up to just under 7 mb/d amid higher outflows of gasoline. OECD Europe crude imports rose, m-o-m, in September on higher flows from the US, which offset declines from Russia. Product imports into the region were broadly flat, m-o-m, with gains in LPG and fuel oil offsetting declines in jet fuel imports. Japan’s crude imports picked up further in September in line with seasonal trends to average 2.4 mb/d. Japan’s product flows moved seasonally, with imports falling, m-o-m, on lower outflows of LPG, and exports edging higher, supported by gasoline. China's crude imports in September averaged 11.5 mb/d, down about 1%, m-o-m, but around 4% higher y-o-y. China’s product imports, including LPG, rose by over 7%, m-o-m, amid higher inflows of fuel oil, which is a key feedstock for independent refiners. Product exports from China edged 2% lower, m-o-m, as limited export quotas for clean products resulted in declines in diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. India's crude imports continued to rise in September, surpassing the five-year average to reach 4.9 million barrels per day (mb/d). India’s product imports increased by over 8%, m-o-m, to reach a 10-month high, boosted by fuel oil, while exports rose by 12%, m-o-m, to a 12-month high amid increased flows to Europe and the Middle East.

Commercial Stock Movements

Preliminary September 2025 data show that OECD commercial inventories rose by 6.0 mb, m-o-m, to stand at 2,845 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 37.7 mb higher than the same time last year, but 22.4 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 122.3 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude and product stocks increased by 1.0 mb and 5.0 mb, m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude oil commercial stocks stood at 1,331 mb. This was 21.3 mb higher than a year ago, but 29.6 mb below the latest five-year average, and 103.9 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,513 mb. This is 16.4 mb higher than a year ago, 7.3 mb above the latest five-year average, but 18.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.1 days, m-o-m, in September, to stand at 61.3 days. This is 0.6 days higher than a year ago, but 2.0 days lower than the latest five-year average, and 1.2 days lower than the average for 2015–2019.

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) is revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.4 mb/d in 2025. This represents an increase of 0.3 mb/d compared to the 2024 estimate. The demand for DoC crude in 2026 is also revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 43.0 mb/d, about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2025 forecast.

Global oil inventory developments

Global oil inventories are grouped into three major components. The first covers OECD commercial oil inventories and Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), with data sourced from OECD national government reports. The second covers commercial oil inventories and SPRs in non-OECD countries, which have grown in significance since non-OECD oil demand surpassed that of the OECD in 2015. Tracking non-OECD oil inventory levels, however, remains challenging due to the lack of available good-quality data. Estimates for these stocks are primarily based on monthly data from major producer and consumer countries, as published by the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), alongside official sources from major non-OECD countries. The third component of global oil inventories is ‘oil at sea’, including ‘oil afloat’ and ‘oil in transit,’ which serves as an important operational link between exporting and importing countries. Since the beginning of 2025, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels (mb) to reach 8,482 mb at the end of September 2025, according to the latest available data (Graph 1). The OECD commercial oil stocks increased by 90 mb, while OECD SPR dropped marginally by 4 mb. The non-OECD oil stocks and oil at sea increased by 62 mb and 156 mb, respectively.

The build in OECD commercial stocks from 1Q25 to 3Q25 could be attributed to higher imports into the region. For OECD SPRs, the decline was due to stock draws in OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific. However, SPRs in OECD Americas saw a build. This was driven mainly by steady additions to the US SPR, which have risen by about 3 mb per month, as the Administration replenishes the significant releases made back in 2022.

Between January and September 2025, the observed build in total OECD commercial oil inventories was driven by an increase in OECD crude and product stocks of 38 mb and 52 mb, respectively (Graph 2). The build in OECD crude oil stocks was a result of steady and robust supply, combined with higher imports within OECD countries. More recently, the build-up in oil at sea is attributed to higher output from a few key producing countries, which increased their crude exports.

In the OECD regions, combined crude and refined product stocks held in OECD Americas increased by 58 mb. This build was driven by a 12 mb increase in crude stocks, combined with a rise of 46 mb in products stocks over the same period. The crude build occurred on the back of year-on-year lower refinery utilisation. In OECD Asia-Pacific, both crude and product inventories have risen this year, resulting in a combined oil stock build of 26 mb. Higher crude imports supported crude stocks, while lower demand caused product stocks to increase. In OECD Europe, most of the build since the beginning of this year has come from a 7 mb increase in crude stocks, while product stocks have experienced a slight drop of 1 mb. Despite all of this, OECD commercial oil stocks in September remain 122 mb below the 2015-2019 average.

In addition to the OECD commercial oil stocks build, the global oil stock increase was driven by the rise in non-OECD oil stocks and oil at sea. The build in non-OECD oil stocks was spurred by the ongoing build in China's SPR. In the first three quarters of 2025, crude oil inventories in China increased by 37 mb, or 135 tb/d. In terms of days of forward cover, total oil inventories in non-OECD countries stood at 50 days at the end of September, which is still well below the OECD country level of 88 days. As oil demand in non-OECD countries continues to rise in the coming years, driven by economic expansion, there will be a need to further expand storage facilities to maintain an adequate level of forward cover in terms of days.

Crude Oil Price Movements

In October, ORB value dropped by $5.19/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $65.20/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $3.63/b, m-o-m, to average $63.95/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract dropped by $3.46/b, m-o-m, to average $60.07/b. The GME Oman front-month contract dropped in October by $5.09/b, m-o-m, to settle at $64.95/b.

The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI front-month spread narrowed slightly in October, m-o-m. The market structure of all three crude benchmarks ─ ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman ─ weakened further. However, the front end of the forward curves remained in backwardation, reflecting healthy physical oil market fundamentals.

Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bearish on crude oil futures for most of October before sentiment reversed in the last week of the month. Money managers sold the equivalent of 157 mb in the ICE Brent market between the weeks of 30 September and 21 October. Net long positions in ICE Brent futures and options fell sharply, reaching a one-year low in the week to 21 October. This was partly due to short positions in ICE Brent futures and options reaching a record high, according to Intercontinental Exchange data going back to 2011, which added downward pressure on prices. However, in the final week of the month, money managers covered a significant portion of these short positions following the announcement of new restrictions, which were viewed as potentially impacting oil supply.

In October, the premium of light sweet crude over medium sour crudes widened across all major trading hubs. This increase was driven by the weaker performance of heavy/medium sour crudes relative to light sweet crudes. Sour crudes came under pressure as supply risk premiums receded and strong demand for prompt-loading cargoes eased.

Crude spot prices

Crude spot prices declined in October, partly reversing the gains of the previous month. Prices came under pressure from heavy selling in the futures market and the easing of supply risk premiums. Global refinery intakes fell by around 1.7 mb/d in October, marking the third consecutive monthly drop amid planned and unplanned outages in major refining hubs. This reduced crude demand in the spot market and weighed down on prices. The EIA also reported a build in US crude oil stocks during the first half of the month, adding to the bearish sentiment.

Ample crude supply in Northwest Europe, including inflows from the US Gulf Coast, together with elevated freight rates, further pressured differentials in the Atlantic Basin.

Graph 1 - 1: Crude oil price movements