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OPEC June 2026 Oil Market Report Overview
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 presents a global oil market that remains supported by resilient economic growth, elevated crude prices, tight product inventories, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, the report also shows signs of moderation, particularly in 2026 oil demand growth, which OPEC revised lower from the previous month.
The main message from the June report is that the oil market is moving toward a more balanced structure in 2026. Demand growth has slowed compared with earlier expectations, while non-DoC liquids supply remains stable and continues to expand. At the same time, commercial oil inventories have declined sharply, refinery margins are diverging across regions, and tanker freight rates remain historically high despite monthly declines.
In the June report, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.0 million barrels per day (mb/d), down by 0.2 mb/d from the May report. However, OPEC raised its 2027 oil demand growth forecast to 1.7 mb/d, suggesting that the organization still expects a stronger rebound next year.
On the supply side, OPEC kept its outlook largely unchanged. Non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow by about 0.6 mb/d in 2026 and another 0.6 mb/d in 2027, mainly driven by Brazil, the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Qatar. Meanwhile, crude oil production from DoC countries fell slightly in May, averaging 33.13 mb/d, down 0.19 mb/d month-on-month.
Overall, the June report reflects a market where demand growth has been adjusted lower for the current year, but supply growth remains stable, inventories are tightening, and regional refining dynamics are creating important differences in crude and product markets.
Crude Oil Prices: OPEC Basket Rises While WTI Softens
Crude oil prices remained elevated in May 2026, although market performance differed across benchmarks.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) rose by $5.49 per barrel month-on-month to average $114.55/b in May. This was a strong recovery from the May report, where the ORB had averaged $108.79/b in April.
ICE Brent also increased, rising by $1.25/b to average $103.71/b in May. However, NYMEX WTI slipped slightly by $0.16/b, averaging $98.51/b. The GME Oman front-month contract declined by $1.81/b to $102.10/b.
The Brent-WTI spread widened to $5.20/b in May, compared with $3.79/b in April. This widening suggests relatively stronger support for Brent-linked markets, especially as supply risks and regional crude availability remained key drivers of market pricing.
OPEC noted that forward curves for major crude benchmarks remained steeply backwardated during May. This indicates that prompt supply conditions were still perceived as tight, even though speculative long positions were reduced. Hedge funds and money managers cut bullish positions in both Brent and WTI, reflecting expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East and improving supply conditions.
Comparison with May Report
Compared with the May report, the June report shows a more mixed crude price environment. In April, Brent and WTI had both strengthened, while Oman had dropped sharply. In May, the ORB and Brent continued to rise, but WTI and Oman weakened. This suggests that the market was no longer moving uniformly higher, and traders were becoming more selective across regional benchmarks.
Commodity Markets: Energy Prices Correct, Metals Stay Strong
Commodity markets showed mixed performance in May. The energy price index fell by 8.7% month-on-month, mainly because average crude oil prices declined and U.S. coal prices were flat. However, the index was still 59.3% higher year-on-year, showing that energy prices remained elevated compared with 2025.
Australian thermal coal prices rose by 4.5% month-on-month, supported by gas-to-coal switching in Asia and Europe. U.S. coal prices were unchanged on the month but remained 11.0% higher year-on-year.
Average crude oil prices fell by 3.3% month-on-month after three consecutive months of gains, although they were still 60.1% higher year-on-year. U.S. natural gas prices rebounded by 5.8% month-on-month, supported by higher LNG demand and Middle East supply disruptions. European TTF gas prices increased by 4.9% month-on-month, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and below-average storage levels.
Outside energy, the non-energy commodity index rose by 2.5% month-on-month. Base metals increased by 3.8%, supported by Chinese industrial policies and a weaker U.S. dollar. Copper prices rose 4.5%, nickel increased 4.6%, aluminum gained 1.7%, and iron ore rose 1.9%.
Precious metals moved in the opposite direction. The precious metals index fell by 1.7% month-on-month, with gold prices down 2.8% due to higher real interest rates, delayed Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, and financial repositioning. However, gold remained 38.6% higher year-on-year, while silver was up 138.1% year-on-year.
Comparison with May Report
The May report showed the energy price index rising 12.1% month-on-month in April, supported by crude oil and U.S. coal. The June report marks a clear reversal in energy momentum, as crude prices corrected and speculative positioning became more cautious. However, non-energy commodities continued to strengthen, especially base metals.
Global Economy: Growth Forecasts Remain Resilient
OPEC left its global economic growth forecasts unchanged at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. The report emphasized that the global economy remained resilient in the first half of 2026 despite geopolitical tensions, higher energy costs, and trade policy uncertainty.
The United States continued to show solid growth, supported by fiscal measures, consumer activity, and investment. OPEC kept the U.S. growth forecast unchanged at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027.
Non-OECD Asia remained one of the strongest areas of global growth. China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, while India is forecast to grow by 6.6% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. OPEC highlighted AI-related investment, semiconductor trade, fiscal support, and steady global trade as important growth drivers.
The Eurozone outlook weakened slightly. OPEC revised its 2026 Eurozone growth forecast down to 1.0%, while keeping the 2027 forecast at 1.2%. Japan’s forecasts remained unchanged at 0.8% for 2026 and 0.9% for 2027.
Inflation pressures increased in several major economies, mainly due to energy, transport, and selected food prices. The report noted that central banks are likely to remain data-dependent, balancing weaker growth risks against renewed upside inflation risks.
Key Economic Risks
OPEC identified several risks to the global economic outlook:
- Middle East geopolitical tensions
- U.S. tariff and trade-policy uncertainty
- Possible U.S.-EU auto tariffs
- USMCA review deadlines
- U.S.-China trade negotiations
- Higher energy and transport costs
- Inflation uncertainty and delayed monetary easing
Despite these risks, OPEC’s overall global growth view remains constructive.
World Oil Demand: 2026 Forecast Revised Lower
The most important change in the June report is OPEC’s downward revision to 2026 oil demand growth.
OPEC now expects global oil demand to grow by 1.0 mb/d in 2026, down from 1.2 mb/d in the May report. This reflects a 0.2 mb/d downward adjustment, mainly due to weaker early-year data and softer demand momentum in some regions.
Total world oil demand is forecast to average 106.13 mb/d in 2026, compared with 105.16 mb/d in 2025. OECD demand is expected to rise by only 0.06 mb/d, reaching 46.01 mb/d. Non-OECD demand is forecast to increase by 0.91 mb/d, reaching 60.12 mb/d.
The main sources of 2026 oil demand growth are:
- China: +0.22 mb/d
- Other Asia: +0.22 mb/d
- India: +0.14 mb/d
- Africa: +0.15 mb/d
- Latin America: +0.12 mb/d
- United States: +0.21 mb/d
In contrast, Europe and OECD Asia Pacific are expected to contract slightly, while Middle East demand is forecast to decline by 0.04 mb/d in 2026.
2027 Oil Demand Forecast
For 2027, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.7 mb/d, up from the 1.5 mb/d growth forecast in the May report. Total world oil demand is projected to reach 107.86 mb/d.
Most of the 2027 growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, which are forecast to add 1.52 mb/d. The strongest contributors are India, Other Asia, China, and the Middle East.
Comparison with May Report
The June report lowers the 2026 demand outlook but raises the 2027 forecast. This creates a two-stage demand narrative: slower growth in the near term, followed by a stronger rebound next year. Non-OECD Asia remains the main driver in both years.
World Oil Supply: Non-DoC Growth Forecast Unchanged
Unlike the demand outlook, OPEC left its supply projections broadly unchanged.
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, averaging 54.8 mb/d. The main growth drivers are Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina.
For 2027, non-DoC liquids production is expected to rise by another 0.6 mb/d, reaching 55.4 mb/d. Growth is expected to be led by Qatar, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
2026 Supply Breakdown
In 2026, OECD liquids production is expected to rise by 0.26 mb/d to average 32.58 mb/d. This growth is mainly driven by OECD Americas, particularly the United States and Canada.
Non-OECD liquids production is expected to rise by 0.35 mb/d to 19.68 mb/d, with Latin America providing the strongest contribution. Latin American liquids supply is forecast to increase by 0.57 mb/d, supported by offshore ramp-ups and production growth in key producers.
The Middle East, excluding DoC participants, is expected to decline by 0.21 mb/d in 2026.
2027 Supply Breakdown
In 2027, non-DoC liquids supply is forecast at 55.45 mb/d, up 0.62 mb/d from 2026. Growth will come mainly from Latin America, the Middle East, and processing gains, while Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to decline.
OPEC also expects DoC NGLs and non-conventional liquids to rise by 0.1 mb/d in 2026 to 8.8 mb/d, and another 0.1 mb/d in 2027 to 8.9 mb/d.
DoC crude oil production fell by 0.19 mb/d in May, averaging 33.13 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Comparison with May Report
The supply outlook is almost unchanged from the May report. OPEC continues to see stable growth from non-DoC producers, with Brazil, the U.S., Canada, Argentina, and Qatar playing a central role. This supply stability contrasts with the lower 2026 demand forecast and supports the view that the market could become better balanced this year.
Refinery Margins: Asia Weakens Sharply, Europe Recovers
Refining margins diverged sharply across regions in May.
U.S. Gulf Coast
USGC refining margins against WTI fell for the second consecutive month, averaging $35.19/b in May. This was down $3.83/b from April but still $21.80/b higher year-on-year.
Weakness came mainly from middle distillates, especially jet/kerosene, as crack spreads corrected from unusually high levels. Naphtha also weakened as refinery runs recovered after maintenance. However, gasoline and high-sulphur fuel oil provided some support as the U.S. driving season began.
U.S. refinery intake increased by 810 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) month-on-month to 16.94 mb/d. Refinery utilization rose to 93.23%.
Rotterdam
Rotterdam margins moved in the opposite direction, rising to $26.76/b, up $4.26/b month-on-month and $17.20/b year-on-year. The improvement was linked to unplanned refinery outages and renewed supply risks.
Product stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region fell 3.7% month-on-month and 20.3% year-on-year, mainly due to declines in fuel oil and gasoline.
Singapore
Singapore refining margins against Oman fell sharply to $9.33/b, down $25.57/b from April. This was a 73.3% month-on-month decline.
The fall was driven by improved Asian refinery runs, alternative crude arrivals, weak steam cracking margins, and pressure on jet/kerosene, gasoil, and naphtha. Combined refinery intake for Japan, China, India, Singapore, and South Korea rose 120 tb/d to 24.67 mb/d.
Comparison with May Report
In April, USGC margins averaged $39.02/b, Rotterdam margins averaged $22.50/b, and Singapore margins averaged $34.90/b. The June report therefore shows a major regional shift: Asian margins collapsed, U.S. margins softened, and European margins recovered.
Tanker Market: Freight Rates Remain High but Ease Further
Tanker freight rates remained elevated in May, although they continued to decline from the record highs seen in March.
Dirty tanker rates were supported by long-haul demand, but some pressure eased as vessels repositioned to more active markets. VLCC spot freight rates on the West Africa-to-East route declined 4% month-on-month, but they remained 121% higher year-on-year.
Suezmax rates showed a similar trend. On the U.S. Gulf Coast-to-Europe route, spot freight rates fell 22% month-on-month but were still 130% higher year-on-year.
Aframax rates saw the sharpest monthly decline. Mediterranean-to-Northwest Europe Aframax rates fell 51% month-on-month as prompt buying eased.
Clean tanker rates remained strong east of Suez due to Asian demand but weakened west of Suez. Middle East-to-East clean tanker rates rose 9% month-on-month, while Mediterranean clean tanker rates fell 32%.
Comparison with May Report
The May report showed larger monthly declines in dirty tanker rates but stronger clean tanker performance. The June report suggests that tanker markets remain tight historically, but extreme freight pressure has started to ease.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
Global crude and product trade flows continued to reflect shifting regional demand, refinery activity, and supply disruptions.
In May, U.S. crude imports were steady at 5.7 mb/d, while crude exports averaged 5.2 mb/d. U.S. product exports remained strong at 7.8 mb/d for the third consecutive month.
OECD Europe crude imports averaged 7.7 mb/d in April, while product imports stood at 2.1 mb/d. Product exports rose to 2.6 mb/d, reaching the top of the five-year range, supported by higher flows to the United States.
Japan’s crude imports fell to 853 tb/d in April. Product imports averaged 679 tb/d, while product exports dropped to 291 tb/d.
China’s crude oil imports fell to 9.4 mb/d in April as refinery runs declined. Product imports fell to 1.2 mb/d, while product exports declined to 819 tb/d, partly due to government efforts to limit product exports.
India’s crude imports recovered to 4.9 mb/d, near the five-year range. Product imports continued to decline to 647 tb/d, while product exports averaged 895 tb/d.
Comparison with May Report
Compared with the May report, U.S. trade flows remained strong, while China’s crude imports fell sharply from the previous month. India recovered from weaker imports, and Europe increased product exports. These trends highlight the importance of regional refinery conditions in shaping global crude and product flows.
OECD Commercial Stocks: Product Draws Tighten the Market
OECD commercial oil inventories fell sharply in April 2026.
Preliminary data show that OECD commercial oil stocks dropped by 48.4 million barrels month-on-month to 2,748 million barrels. Stocks were 6.9 million barrels lower year-on-year, 53.7 million barrels below the latest five-year average, and 179.5 million barrels below the 2015–2019 average.
Crude stocks increased by 4.2 million barrels, but product stocks fell by 52.7 million barrels. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,348 million barrels, while total product stocks stood at 1,399 million barrels.
Days of forward cover fell by 1.6 days to 60.1 days, which was 1.3 days below the latest five-year average.
Comparison with May Report
The May report showed March OECD commercial stocks at 2,774 million barrels, down 21.6 million barrels month-on-month. The June report shows a much larger draw, driven mainly by products. This reinforces the view that product markets remain tight despite weaker refining margins in some regions.
Balance of Supply and Demand
OPEC revised its demand for DoC crude lower in the June report.
Demand for DoC crude in 2026 is now forecast at 42.5 mb/d, down 0.2 mb/d from the previous month’s estimate. However, this is still 0.2 mb/d higher than in 2025.
For 2027, demand for DoC crude remains at 43.5 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.
Comparison with May Report
The May report had projected demand for DoC crude at 42.7 mb/d in 2026 and 43.6 mb/d in 2027. The June revision therefore reflects a softer 2026 demand outlook, while the medium-term balance still points to higher DoC crude requirements in 2027.
Market Analysis: What the June OPEC Report Means for Oil Prices
The June 2026 OPEC report carries a mixed signal for crude oil prices.
On the bearish side, OPEC lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast by 0.2 mb/d, while keeping non-DoC supply growth unchanged. This means the market may be less tight than previously expected. The sharp drop in Singapore refining margins also suggests weaker crude demand from Asian refiners if profitability remains under pressure.
On the bullish side, OECD inventories fell sharply, especially product stocks. Crude forward curves remain backwardated, tanker rates remain historically high, and geopolitical risks continue to support risk premiums. In addition, OPEC raised its 2027 demand forecast, suggesting that the medium-term demand outlook remains strong.
For Brent and WTI, the key question is whether lower 2026 demand growth will dominate, or whether inventory draws and geopolitical risks will keep prices supported. The report suggests a market that is no longer aggressively bullish, but still not weak enough to justify a deep bearish shift.
Possible Market Effect
Crude Oil: Neutral to moderately bullish. Prices remain supported by inventory draws and geopolitical risk, but demand downgrades limit upside.
Brent: Slightly stronger than WTI due to the wider Brent-WTI spread and stronger Atlantic Basin dynamics.
WTI: Neutral. Strong U.S. exports help, but refinery margin weakness and stable supply growth may cap gains.
Refined Products: Mixed. Gasoline remains supported by the driving season, while jet/kerosene, gasoil, and naphtha are weaker.
Energy Equities: Selective upside for integrated oil companies and exporters, but weaker refining margins may pressure pure refiners.
Inflation Outlook: Higher oil and energy prices remain an upside risk for global inflation, especially if geopolitical tensions intensify.
Conclusion
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 shows a market that is still supported by elevated prices, tight inventories, and geopolitical risk, but no longer has the same demand momentum expected earlier in the year.
The key change is OPEC’s downward revision to 2026 global oil demand growth, now expected at 1.0 mb/d. This lowers the near-term demand outlook and suggests a better-balanced market in 2026. However, the 2027 demand forecast was raised to 1.7 mb/d, indicating that OPEC still expects a stronger demand rebound next year.
Supply forecasts remain stable. Non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027, led by Brazil, the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Qatar. This stable supply growth reduces the risk of a severe shortage, but sharp OECD product stock draws and still-high tanker rates show that the market is not oversupplied.
Compared with the May report, the June edition is less bullish for 2026 demand but still constructive for medium-term oil fundamentals. The most important areas to watch in the coming months are Asian refinery margins, OECD product inventories, Middle East tensions, tanker freight rates, and whether global demand strengthens into the second half of 2026.
FAQ
What is the main message of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report June 2026?
The main message is that OPEC sees a more balanced oil market in 2026. It lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.0 mb/d, kept non-DoC supply growth unchanged at 0.6 mb/d, and reported a sharp draw in OECD commercial oil inventories.
How much did OPEC revise its 2026 oil demand forecast?
OPEC revised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast down by 0.2 mb/d, from 1.2 mb/d in the May report to 1.0 mb/d in the June report.
What is OPEC’s 2027 oil demand forecast?
OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.7 mb/d in 2027, up from the previous forecast of 1.5 mb/d. Most of the growth is expected to come from non-OECD economies, especially India, China, Other Asia, and the Middle East.
What is the forecast for non-DoC oil supply in 2026?
Non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, averaging around 54.8 mb/d. The main growth drivers are Brazil, the United States, Canada, and Argentina.
Did OPEC change its oil supply forecast in the June 2026 report?
No. OPEC kept its non-DoC supply forecast largely unchanged from the May report. Non-DoC supply is still expected to grow by 0.6 mb/d in both 2026 and 2027.
What happened to crude oil prices in May 2026?
The OPEC Reference Basket rose to $114.55/b, Brent averaged $103.71/b, WTI averaged $98.51/b, and Oman averaged $102.10/b. Brent strengthened while WTI and Oman weakened slightly.
Why did Singapore refining margins fall sharply?
Singapore refining margins fell because Asian refinery runs improved, alternative crude supplies increased, and product-market tightness eased. Weakness in jet/kerosene, gasoil, and naphtha outweighed gains in gasoline and high-sulphur fuel oil.
What happened to OECD oil inventories?
OECD commercial oil inventories fell by 48.4 million barrels in April to 2,748 million barrels. The draw was mainly driven by product stocks, which fell by 52.7 million barrels.
Is the June 2026 OPEC report bullish or bearish for oil prices?
The report is mixed. It is bearish because OPEC cut its 2026 demand forecast, but bullish because inventories fell sharply, tanker rates remain elevated, and geopolitical risk continues to support oil prices.
What are the biggest risks for the oil market after the June 2026 OPEC report?
The biggest risks are Middle East geopolitical tensions, weaker Asian refinery margins, U.S. tariff uncertainty, global inflation pressures, and whether demand growth improves in the second half of 2026.
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Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2026, compared with OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – May 2026.
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