OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – June 2025

Explore key insights from OPEC’s June 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, including updated global demand forecasts, production trends, inventory shifts, price movements, and the impact of recent geopolitical events on the oil market outlook.

author: Economician

Reading Time:

6 minutes

category:commodities

Oil Market Highlights

June 2025

The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value decreased by $5.36, or 7.8%, m-o-m in May to average $63.62/b. Crude oil futures prices also declined on average, with ICE Brent down $5.06, or 7.3%, at $64.01/b, and NYMEX WTI falling by $5.31, or 8.0%, to $60.94/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened slightly to $3.07/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI softened but remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers reduced net long positions in both contracts.
The global economic growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 2.9%, followed by 3.1% in 2026. The 2025 GDP growth forecast for the US stands at 1.7%, the Eurozone at 1.0%, Japan at 1.0%, China at 4.6%, India at 6.5%, Brazil at 2.3%, and Russia at 1.8%. In 2026, US growth is forecast at 2.1%, the Eurozone at 1.1%, Japan at 0.9%, China at 4.5%, India at 6.5%, Brazil at 2.5%, and Russia at 1.5%. Global economic growth remains stable, with upside potential stemming from improvements in services and manufacturing sectors and a continued recovery in global trade. Downside risks include elevated interest rates, high debt levels, and geopolitical developments.
World oil demand growth in 2025 remains broadly unchanged from the previous assessment at 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y. In the OECD, oil demand is anticipated to increase slightly by around 0.2 mb/d, while in the non-OECD, oil demand is forecast to rise by about 1.1 mb/d. In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from the previous assessment. OECD oil demand is forecast to increase by around 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d.
Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d in 2025, followed by an increase of 0.7 mb/d in 2026. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2025 are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. However, production is expected to decline in other regions, including Norway and Mexico. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, to average 5.5 mb/d and 5.6 mb/d, respectively. In May, OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 26.63 mb/d, higher by 29 tb/d, m-o-m, according to available secondary sources.
OECD commercial oil stocks rose m-o-m by 4.7 mb in April to stand at 2,739 mb. This is 188 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. Crude stocks rose by 7.2 mb, while product stocks fell by 2.5 mb. Days of forward cover in April fell m-o-m by 0.1 days to stand at 59.7 days.
The demand for OPEC crude in 2025 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 28.5 mb/d, which is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2024. The demand for OPEC crude in 2026 is also unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.2 mb/d, around 0.7 mb/d higher than in 2025.

Global Oil Demand Forecasts (2025 and 2026)

OPEC projects global oil demand to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025 and by +1.3 mb/d in 2026, essentially unchanged from the previous month’s outlook. For 2025, this consists of roughly +0.2 mb/d demand growth in OECD economies and +1.1 mb/d in non‑OECD. In 2026, OECD demand is expected to rise by about +0.1 mb/d, while non‑OECD demand rises by ~+1.2 mb/d. These forecasts rely on modest global GDP growth (~2.9% in 2025) and assume that any trade tensions will not derail demand. (OPEC notes that minor revisions to first‑quarter data had little effect on the demand outlook.)

Non-OPEC and OPEC Production Trends

The report separates non-OPEC+ (countries outside the OPEC+ Declaration) and OPEC+ supply. Non-OPEC+ liquids supply is forecast to expand by about +0.8 mb/d in 2025, primarily led by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina; growth for 2026 is slightly trimmed to +0.7 mb/d. In contrast, output from OPEC+ members (the Declaration of Cooperation) is increasing only gradually. Crude oil production by OPEC+ averaged 41.23 mb/d in May, up ~0.18 mb/d from April. OPEC+ natural gas liquids (NGL) and non‑conventional output are forecast to rise only +0.1 mb/d in each of 2025 and 2026. Overall, OPEC+ is expected to offset declines in some members by modestly higher production elsewhere (the report notes that 2025 OPEC+ crude demand is projected at 42.7 mb/d, implying a small above-2024 increase).

Crude Oil Price Developments

Crude benchmarks weakened in May 2025. The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $63.62/b in May, down from April’s ~$69, a fall of $5.36 (–7.8%) month-on-month. Similarly, ICE Brent fell to ~$64.01 and NYMEX WTI to ~$60.94. The Brent‑WTI spread narrowed to about $3.07. Forward curves remained in backwardation during the month, reflecting tightness in the near term. OPEC attributes the recent price slide partly to the planned acceleration of OPEC+ production increases in May–June (and concerns over global demand), though in early June geopolitical tensions reversed this trend. In mid-June, Brent jumped to ~$74/b after Israeli strikes on Iran. Overall, as of the report date, prices were still well below the peak reached in 2024, trading in the mid-$60s to low-$70s.

Crude Oil Price Movements