English
پارسی
Background – the 1979 Revolution
In 1978‑79 a popular uprising in Iran toppled the monarchy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The coalition that overthrew the Shah was broad – it included secular nationalists, left‑wing groups and conservative clerics. The movement expressed itself through Shiʿi Islam and was guided by cleric Ruhollah Khomeini, who proposed a form of populist government overseen by a spiritual authority. On 11 February 1979 the armed forces declared neutrality and the revolutionary movement seized power, creating an Islamic republic. Afterward, conservative Islamist forces sidelined their left‑wing and nationalist allies and enforced conservative social values. The new regime suppressed dissent and repeated anti‑government protests have occurred throughout the republic’s history.
Roots of the 2025‑26 uprising
Economic and political grievances
The latest wave of unrest erupted on 28 December 2025 when merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar closed shops in protest at the collapse of the rial (1.4 million rial to US $1) and inflation exceeding 40 % on essential goods. Within days, demonstrations spread to more than 170 locations in 25 provinces. Protesters initially demanded economic relief but soon shifted to slogans calling for the end of the Islamic Republic. This was the largest uprising since 1979, reflecting deep frustration with decades of corruption, political repression and lack of civil liberties.
The regime’s response
Deadly crackdown and human cost
Authorities responded with unprecedented force. Human‑rights groups estimate that 7 000–7 005 people were killed in the January 2026 crackdown, although opposition activists claim tens of thousands died. Many more were wounded or disappeared. Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that over 11 000 people were injured and more than 7 000 detained, while survivors described torture and sexual violence in custody. Iran’s government has admitted to only 3 117 deaths. At least 26 protesters have been sentenced to death, and courts continue to issue death sentences; one report noted that 14 protesters were condemned in a single online hearing.
Continuing protests and the “40‑day” tradition
Iranians traditionally mark the 40th day after a death with chehelom ceremonies. In February 2026, relatives held memorials for protesters killed in January. Reuters reported that many ceremonies in Abdanan, Mashhad and Hamedan turned into anti‑government protests. Security forces opened fire on mourners, wounding people and arresting others. Internet access was heavily restricted. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty verified videos showing crowds at Tehran’s Behesht‑e Zahra cemetery chanting “A thousand people stand behind every dead person” and shouting “Death to Khamenei” in the town of Abdanan. The crackdown on these mourning rituals draws comparisons with 1979, when 40‑day memorials helped catalyze the revolution.
Leadership and internal tensions
President Masoud Pezeshkian has sought to calm public anger. At the anniversary of the 1979 revolution, he claimed Iran is willing to negotiate over its nuclear program and said Iran does not seek nuclear weapons. He apologised for government “shortcomings” and urged cooperation to address grievances. However, he has limited authority; state media cut off his criticism of the broadcaster during a cabinet meeting and an IRGC commander publicly challenged him on live television, highlighting the elected government’s lack of control over powerful institutions. Parliament continues to be dominated by hard‑line factions, and the Supreme Leader retains ultimate authority.
International human‑rights actions
The European Union designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation and imposed asset freezes and funding bans. The United States imposed visa restrictions on 18 senior Iranian officials and telecommunications executives for their role in suppressing proteststhemedialine.org. These measures reflect international condemnation of Iran’s human‑rights abuses but have not halted the crackdown.
Nuclear programme and diplomacy
Iran’s position
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei maintains that Iran has a “right” to pursue a nuclear industry and deterrent weapons. In a February 17 speech he rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment and limit ballistic missiles. Iran’s negotiating team has offered only temporary halts to enrichment or a regional enrichment facility on Iranian soil, proposals Washington has rejected because they would allow future enrichment. Iran also refuses to discuss its ballistic‑missile arsenal or support for proxy forces, calling those issues red lines. Atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami insists Iran’s program complies with International Atomic Energy Agency rules and that no country can deprive Iran of enrichment rights.
U.S. demands and negotiations
The U.S. is demanding that Iran abandon uranium enrichment, curtail ballistic missiles and stop supporting proxies and repressing protesters. Negotiations restarted in Geneva and Oman in mid‑February. Both sides agreed on “guiding principles” but remain far apart. Iran is expected to submit a written proposal addressing U.S. concerns. U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance said the talks made some progress but major gaps remain. Washington has insisted that diplomacy is its first option; however, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned there are many reasons to strike Iran and the president is keeping all options open.
Fortification of nuclear sites
Satellite imagery analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security shows Iran fortifying nuclear facilities. At the Parchin military complex, a concrete “sarcophagus” has been built over the Taleghan 2 building to shield equipment from aerial attack. Iran is also burying tunnel entrances at an underground complex near Isfahan and reinforcing the Natanz site. ISIS founder David Albright said the new structure at Parchin is a high‑explosives containment vessel buried under soil to protect it. These fortifications suggest Tehran expects potential strikes and is hardening its program.
Military build‑up and geopolitics
U.S. and allied deployments
As talks stall, the U.S. has assembled its largest Middle East force since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Two aircraft carriers – the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford – operate near Iran. The Lincoln strike group, which includes destroyers USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., USS Spruance and USS Michael Murphy, has been conducting flight operations in the Arabian Sea; on Feb 5 a carrier‑based F‑35C shot down an Iranian Shahed‑139 drone. The Ford carrier is transiting through the Mediterranean and could station near Israel and Jordan, bringing extra aircraft and anti‑missile capacity. The U.S. has also repositioned dozens of aircraft: F‑16s from Spangdahlem and Aviano bases, F‑16s from McEntire Joint National Guard Base, F‑22 Raptors from Langley‑Eustis to RAF Lakenheath, F‑15E Strike Eagles, A‑10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft, and multiple F‑35A squadrons already in the region. Support assets such as E‑3 Sentry AWACS, E‑11 BACN, RC‑135 Rivet Joint signals‑intelligence planes, P‑8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and refuelling tankers have deployed to bases in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Crete. The USS Pinckney, an additional Arleigh Burke‑class destroyer, has joined the build‑up.
At least 50 additional U.S. combat aircraft – F‑35s, F‑22s and F‑16s – were ordered to the region this week. An official told Reuters that the entire force should be in place by mid‑March. This surge positions the U.S. to carry out sustained air and missile campaigns if ordered. It follows warnings by President Donald Trump that he may use force if negotiations fail. Reports suggest the military is prepared to strike as early as the weekend following Feb 19. Trump has also threatened to use the Diego Garcia base and the airfield at RAF Fairford if needed.
Israeli preparations
Israel, which bombed Iranian nuclear facilities during a 12‑day war in June 2025, is preparing for possible Iranian missile retaliation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists any deal must end Iran’s nuclear program, curb its missiles and cut ties with militant groups. Israel has hundreds of fighter aircraft and has coordinated with the U.S. on potential operations.
Russia and Iran drills, Russian warnings
Iran conducted joint naval drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman, involving live‑fire exercises and boarding operations by the IRGC’s Sepah Navy Special Force. A Russian Steregushchiy‑class corvette joined the exercise. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that any new U.S. strike on Iran would have serious consequences and could risk a nuclear incident. Lavrov urged Washington to seek a solution that respects Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program. Russia also cautioned against an “unprecedented escalation,” highlighting that U.S. forces plan to complete their build‑up by mid‑March.
Regional and international reactions
Fear of war has prompted governments to take precautions. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Polish citizens to immediately leave Iran, warning that in “a few, a dozen or several dozen hours evacuation may no longer be possible”. Oil prices have risen on fears of conflict. The U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to meet Netanyahu on Feb 28 to discuss Iran. The Times of India summarised that at least 150 cargo flights have transported weapons and ammunition to the region, making the current U.S. posture its largest Middle‑East deployment since 2003.
Political and societal changes inside Iran
Erosion of legitimacy
The government’s legitimacy is eroding as economic hardship persists and protests continue. The rial’s collapse and high inflation have impoverished ordinary Iranians, while Western sanctions restrict trade. Youth unemployment remains high, and the internet blackout during protests deepened public anger. Mourners now place flowers, candles and personal items not only on graves but on the streets and hospitals where victims were killed. Public mourning rituals increasingly incorporate music, dance, kite flying and other forms of cultural expression, reflecting a shift from religious ceremonies to secular acts of defiance. Social media amplifies videos of anti‑government chants at state‑sponsored rallies, undermining official narratives of unity. Disputes between President Pezeshkian and the state broadcaster illustrate how unelected institutions such as the IRGC and state media can openly challenge the elected government.
Civil activism and fear of reprisals
Human‑rights organisations report continued harassment of journalists, lawyers and activists, and heavy internet restrictions hamper reporting. Families of victims face intimidation when organising memorials. Despite these risks, protests and strikes persist; teachers’ unions, students and workers have held demonstrations, highlighting ongoing grievances. The “chehelom” rituals demonstrate resilience and reveal the depth of public anger; many Iranians say the Islamic Republic has delivered war, economic misery and death.
Latest developments (past 48 hours)
- Feb 17 – 19 2026: New anti‑government protests erupted during 40‑day mourning ceremonies across Iran. Security forces opened fire on mourners in Abdanan and other cities, injuring people and making arrests. Internet restrictions were imposed in these areas.
- Feb 18 2026: Reuters reported that Iran deployed security forces to cemeteries and invited citizens to attend state‑organised ceremonies to prevent independent gatherings. The authorities apologised to those affected but blamed “terrorists” for the violence.
- Feb 18 2026: Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that a new U.S. strike would have serious consequences, urging restraint and respect for Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear enrichment.
- Feb 18 2026: RFE/RL confirmed that at memorial ceremonies in Tehran, Shiraz and other cities, mourners chanted anti‑government slogans and security forces fired into the air to disperse them.
- Feb 19 2026: AP/Reuters articles reported that Iran and Russia held naval drills, while the U.S. moved the USS Gerald R. Ford into the eastern Mediterranean; U.S. officials ordered another 50 combat aircraft to the region and said the force build‑up would be complete by mid‑March. Trump threatened that if Iran does not make a deal, the U.S. may use bases in Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford.
- Feb 19 2026: Reuters reported that Poland’s prime minister urged Poles in Iran to leave immediately and that oil prices rose on fears of conflict.
- Feb 19 2026: U.S. national security advisers met at the White House; sources told CNN that the military is ready to strike as early as the coming weekend, although Trump has not made a final decision. Diplomatic efforts continue, but press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that numerous arguments could justify a strike.
Conclusion
The 2025‑26 Iranian uprising has become the most serious challenge to the Islamic Republic since its founding. Economic collapse, widespread corruption and repression have produced nationwide protests, and the regime’s lethal crackdown has deepened anger. Forty‑day mourning rituals for those killed are evolving into acts of resistance reminiscent of 1979. Diplomacy continues but remains deadlocked: Iran refuses to abandon enrichment or its ballistic‑missile program, while the U.S. demands both and warns that military action remains on the table. The United States and its allies have deployed substantial naval and air assets around Iran, while Iran is fortifying its nuclear facilities and conducting joint drills with Russia. Russia warns that a new strike would be “playing with fire,” yet Poland and other governments are evacuating their citizens. The coming weeks – as the U.S. build‑up completes and the diplomatic window narrows – will be critical in determining whether the crisis escalates into war or moves toward a negotiated settlement.
Comments