EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2025

The spot price of Brent crude oil averaged 79perbarrel(b) in January,79perbarrel(b) in January,5/b higher than in December. Crude oil prices increased immediately following the January 10 announcement of a new round of sanctions on Russia's oil shipments.

author: Economician

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category:commodities

Global oil prices and inventories

Prices gradually fell over the month as concerns around weak global oil demand growth and oversupply regained focus from market participants. The Brent spot price began February around $76/b, about the same as at the start of January.

On February 1, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order announcing the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. Subsequently, the implementation of tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada was delayed by 30 days, so the effects of those two policies are not reflected in this outlook. U.S. tariffs placed on imports from China through that Executive Order, as well as China’s retaliatory tariffs placed on select imports from the United States, are incorporated in this outlook and remain through the entire forecast period. Although the future imposition of tariffs could affect oil trade routes, we do not presently anticipate the tariffs put forward in the February 1 executive order would significantly affect global oil supply. Still, the possibility of future tariffs and the new sanctions on Russia are sources of uncertainty for oil prices going forward.