EconoTicker

Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said he hopes both Russia and Ukraine will join the administration’s proposed “Board of Peace,” adding: “I have a feeling we’re going to get a positive answer.” The remark comes as Witkoff confirmed he is set to meet President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, following what Reuters described as constructive Davos talks between U.S. and Russian envoys on a possible Ukraine settlement.

Market impact: A credible diplomatic track can reduce geopolitical risk premia (supporting European risk assets and pressuring gold/volatility), but headline risk stays high until concrete terms emerge—keeping EUR, energy, and rates sensitive to fast-moving updates.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff said he will travel to Moscow on Thursday to meet President Vladimir Putin, with reporting also saying Jared Kushner will join the trip. Witkoff said the meeting was requested by the Russian side, as Washington intensifies diplomacy around a potential framework to end the Russia–Ukraine war.

Market impact: Event risk rises for EUR assets, energy, and FX—a credible de-escalation signal would typically support risk assets and weigh on havens, while a stall/harsh terms narrative could keep gold, volatility, and oil risk premia firm.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe must move faster toward strategic independence in an “increasingly lawless” world—built on a strong economy, the single market, tech/innovation, unity, and credible defence—while stressing that Greenland’s future is for Greenlanders to decide. She also criticised the idea of extra U.S. tariffs justified on security grounds as wrong/a mistake, arguing the EU and U.S. are already aligned on Arctic security and cooperate via NATO.

Market impact: Adds to EU–U.S. geopolitical and trade headline risk, which can pressure EUR sentiment and European cyclicals while supporting defence names and safe-haven positioning (gold, CHF/JPY).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticised French President Emmanuel Macron after France pushed for a NATO exercise in Greenland, saying that if “this is all” Macron has to focus on while France’s budget is in poor shape, he should prioritise domestic issues. The remarks, delivered around the Davos meetings, add fresh heat to the Greenland dispute that is already spilling into broader transatlantic tensions and trade-war risk.

Market impact: Heightens EU political/trade headline risk, supportive for defence names and safe-haven positioning (gold/CHF/JPY), while keeping EUR sentiment and volatility premia fragile if escalation continues.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 21, 2026, brushed off concerns that European investors could pressure Washington by selling U.S. Treasuries, saying “Denmark’s investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant,” while arguing Treasury auctions continue to draw strong foreign demand. The comments land as President Trump threatens 10% tariffs from February 1, rising to 25% from June 1 if no Greenland deal is reached—raising the risk of EU retaliation and a wider transatlantic trade dispute. Separately, Bessent also aimed Europe’s energy stance, arguing that continued purchases of Russian oil “four years later” amount to financing the war against itself.

Market impact: Elevated headline risk for EUR and European cyclicals; supportive for safe-haven positioning (gold, CHF/JPY) and volatility premia; watch U.S. term-premium sensitivity and EU energy pricing given Europe’s growing reliance on U.S. LNG.

France has asked NATO to stage a military exercise in Greenland and said it is ready to contribute, according to President Emmanuel Macron’s office. The move comes as Greenland has become a new flashpoint in transatlantic politics, with European leaders pushing back against U.S. pressure and warning against intimidation tactics.

Market impact: Adds to geopolitical risk premium and supports the case for higher European defense spending (tailwind for EU defense names). It may also reinforce risk-off undercurrents—supportive for havens—if the Greenland dispute continues to spill into trade and alliance cohesion headlines.

The Pentagon is planning to reduce U.S. participation in parts of NATO’s force structure and nearly 30 NATO-linked advisory groups, affecting roughly 200 military personnel, according to reports citing officials familiar with the matter. The approach is gradual—roles would be left unfilled as tours end, rather than an immediate withdrawal—potentially taking years to fully play out. Reported areas include advisory work tied to energy security, naval/maritime operations, special operations, and intelligence, with cuts also touching roles across several NATO command centers.

Market impact: Increases the risk premium around transatlantic cohesion and may accelerate expectations for higher European defense spending (supportive for EU defense stocks), while adding headline risk for EUR assets if allies perceive a broader U.S. retrenchment.

Tensions at Davos escalated as global leaders vigorously debated U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy toward Greenland and tariff threats. European officials — including French President Macron and EU Commission President von der Leyen — condemned the U.S. stance as undermining international norms, while Canadian leadership urged calm and defense of stability. Financial markets reacted with stocks dropping and gold rising.

Market impact: A risk-off swing as geopolitical friction takes center stage; supportive for safe havens (gold, sovereign bonds) and increases volatility pricing.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran during an official visit, after separate talks with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi and Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani. Iraqi media and Iranian readouts say Hussein stressed in contacts with other leaders that regional security is interconnected, framing the Iran–Iraq channel as key to wider stability. The visit comes amid unconfirmed reports—cited by outlets including CNN via Iran International—that Iran-aligned Iraqi militia fighters crossed into Iran to assist the crackdown, alongside eyewitness claims that some forces involved were not Iranian; neither government has publicly verified those allegations.

China’s foreign ministry said it has received a U.S. invitation to join President Donald Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” focused initially on Gaza, but Beijing did not say whether it will participate. The initiative is being pitched as a new conflict-resolution mechanism, and diplomats have raised concerns it could compete with or sideline the United Nations.

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Doha does not want to see military escalation in the region and has advised Washington— “as a partner”—that the best way forward is a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear file. He also warned against a regional nuclear arms race and argued the current moment could be an opportunity for the wider region to come together and address mutual security concerns.

Israeli officials have reportedly told the U.S. that even an extreme Iranian barrage of around 700 ballistic missiles would be “manageable” given Israel’s layered air defenses—and that the strategic cost would be “worth it” if a military campaign produced regime collapse in Iran, according to a Ynet (Yedioth Ahronoth group) report that references senior U.S. sources. The same discussion comes as Israeli and regional assessments warn Iran has rebuilt its heavy-missile stockpile to roughly 2,000 only months after the June 2025 12-day war, and that Tehran may seek to overwhelm defenses by launching far larger salvos at once rather than staggered waves over days.