EconoTicker

The dollar strengthened, gold eased and stocks rebounded on Thursday after President Donald Trump dropped tariff threats and said he would not seize Greenland “by force,” telling audiences at Davos: “I won’t do that… I don’t have to use force, I don’t want to use force, I won’t use force.” The shift delivered visible relief across markets, though investors remained cautious given this week’s whipsaw headlines and lingering uncertainty over how durable the de-escalation will be.

Market impact: Near-term risk-on tone (supportive for equities, USD firmer, gold softer), but pricing likely stays headline-sensitive—any reversal on tariffs or Greenland rhetoric could quickly reintroduce volatility.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 (1 Bahman 1404) that he is concerned about suggestions from people involved in the Iran file that a deal could be possible if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei changes course. In a post on X, Graham argued that anyone expecting a meaningful shift misunderstands the regime’s history, likening the idea to believing one could have negotiated with Adolf Hitler; he further described Khamenei as a “religious Nazi” and insisted that “you can’t deal with evil—you have to confront it,” framing that as standing behind the Iranian people. His comments came after Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy, said diplomacy could be possible if Tehran demonstrates serious behavior change.

In a social-media statement, President Trump said he had a “very productive” meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and that the two sides have formed a framework for a future deal on Greenland and the wider Arctic region. Trump added that, based on this understanding, he will not impose the tariffs previously scheduled to take effect on February 1, and said further discussions are ongoing around a “Golden Dome” concept tied to Greenland. He also named Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and special envoy Steve Witkoff among those leading negotiations and reporting directly to him.

Market impact: Near-term risk-on relief (supportive for equities and EUR, negative for safe havens like gold/JPY/CHF) if confirmed by NATO/Europe; however, the story remains headline-sensitive until formal statements and concrete terms are published.

Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East, said on Wednesday, Jan. 21, 2026 (1 Bahman 1404) on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos that the killing of protesters in Iran is appalling and that any diplomatic outcome would hinge on a serious shift in Tehran’s conduct. He indicated Washington is not in formal direct negotiations with Iran at this stage, while acknowledging that channels of communication with Iranian officials have remained active; he has also framed diplomacy as the preferred path, with any deal expected to tackle core issues including uranium enrichment, missiles, Iran’s existing stockpiles, and its proxy network.

News: French President Emmanuel Macron warned at the World Economic Forum that the world is increasingly drifting toward a system where international rules and norms are disregarded, risking geopolitical instability. He criticized unilateral power plays and emphasized the need to reinforce multilateral cooperation—echoing the Spirit of Dialogue theme amid tensions, including disputes around Greenland.

Market impact: Heightened geopolitical risk pricing and increased volatility in markets sensitive to international norms and global cooperation frameworks.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in Davos the EU is working on a package to strengthen Arctic security, while stressing Denmark/Greenland’s sovereignty is “non‑negotiable.” She also referenced investment ambitions tied to Greenland’s economy/infrastructure, framing Trump-linked tariff pressure as a strategic mistake.

Market impact: Supports European defence/Arctic-capability themes (e.g., icebreakers, surveillance, logistics); adds a geopolitical premium that can lift safe havens and volatility.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned on January 21, 2026 (1 Bahman 1404) that the ongoing impasse between Iran and the agency—over the status of enriched uranium stockpiles and access to inspect nuclear facilities that were bombed—could lead to a formal determination that Iran is not meeting its international obligations. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Grossi said Iran has yet to submit a promised special report on the issue, stressing that the situation cannot continue “forever,” according to Reuters.

In an opinion piece published by The Wall Street Journal, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that if Iran comes under renewed attack, Tehran will respond with a “fiery” retaliation and said Iran’s armed forces would have “no qualms about firing back with everything we have.” The message comes as U.S.–Iran rhetoric and military signaling intensify amid the crackdown inside Iran and rising regional tension.

Austria’s Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) issued a statement to Iranians in Austria describing the Islamic Republic as an “illegitimate regime” and portraying the IRGC as an Islamist violent organization, comparing it to ISIS and al-Qaeda. The party said it understands Iranians’ concerns about the crackdown and pledged to push for the IRGC’s designation as a terrorist organization at the EU level.

Reporting citing U.S. officials says President Donald Trump—despite holding back from strikes last week—is still pressing the White House and Pentagon for what he calls “decisive” military options against Iran and has not ruled out action. In parallel, the U.S. is visibly reinforcing its Middle East posture, with an aircraft carrier group moving toward the region, F-15E fighters deploying to Jordan, and additional air and missile defenses—including Patriot and THAAD—being sent to bolster protection against potential retaliation.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Tuesday interview on NewsNation’s Katie Pavlich Tonight that he has issued “very firm instructions” for an overwhelming U.S. response if Iran acts on alleged assassination threats against him, saying Iran would be “wiped off the face of this earth” and that the response would be unprecedented. Trump also criticized the previous U.S. administration’s handling of Tehran’s threats, arguing a lack of toughness encouraged continued intimidation.

Mai Sato, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran, warned that the death toll from Iran’s recent protest crackdown is continuing to climb and said the scale and pattern of violence could create grounds for international bodies to examine potential crimes against humanity. She urged an independent investigation and noted that existing UN mechanisms—such as the fact-finding framework created after the 2022 protests—could be expanded or renewed to scrutinize the latest abuses.