EconoTicker

• Foreign Exchange Reserves: $698.27B, up from $694.23B the prior week, marking another step toward record levels.

Market impact: Positive for INR, as stronger reserves enhance external stability and buffer against global volatility.

Historical context: Reserves are hovering near the $700B mark, the highest since mid-2022, reflecting robust capital inflows and a resilient current account position.

• CPI (YoY, Aug): +2.07%, slightly below expectations (+2.10%) but higher than July’s +1.61%, showing a modest pickup from ultra-low levels.

Market impact: Neutral for INR, as inflation remains well below the RBI’s 4% target midpoint, keeping monetary policy accommodative.

Historical context: Despite the slight uptick, August marks the second-lowest CPI reading since early 2023, underscoring India’s disinflation trend.

• Current Account (Jul): +$1.77B, stronger than expected (+$1.60B) and reversing June’s -$2.01B deficit, marking a return to surplus.
• End-Year CPI Forecast (Sep): 29.86%, slightly above August’s 29.69%, showing persistent inflation expectations.

Market impact: Positive for TRY in the near term due to the surplus, but longer-term pressure remains from sticky inflation expectations.

Historical context: July’s surplus is Türkiye’s first since March, while end-year CPI forecasts remain near 30%, far above the CBRT’s official 5% target.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 56.99, slightly down from 57.62 in August, but still well above the neutral 50 mark, indicating continued consumer optimism.

Market impact: Neutral for INR, as sentiment remains firmly positive, though the dip suggests some caution amid inflationary pressures.

Historical context: The index has stayed above 50 since late 2020, making India one of the most resilient consumer markets in the IPSOS survey universe.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 46.39, down from 47.87 in August, remaining below the neutral 50 mark and signaling persistent household caution.

Market impact: Negative for KRW, as subdued sentiment reflects pressure from high living costs and slowing growth momentum.

Historical context: The index has stayed under 50 since mid-2022, underscoring structural consumer pessimism despite gradual labor market stability.

• Manufacturing Production (YoY, Jul): -0.7%, reversing June’s +1.9%, signaling renewed weakness in the sector.
• Manufacturing Production (MoM, Jul): -0.5%, after +0.4% in June, reflecting softer monthly activity.

Market impact: Negative for ZAR, as manufacturing weakness offsets recent strength in mining, raising concerns about broader industrial momentum.

Historical context: July marks the first annual contraction since March, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability to power shortages and weak domestic demand.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 47.10, up from 43.45 in August, though still below the neutral 50 mark, signaling cautious household sentiment.

Market impact: Slightly positive for ZAR, as the rebound points to recovering consumer confidence, though overall pessimism lingers.

Historical context: Despite September’s bounce, the index has remained under 50 since early 2022, reflecting ongoing structural pressures from inflation, unemployment, and weak growth.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 44.92, down from 45.39 in August, remaining well below the neutral 50 mark, reflecting persistent household pessimism.

Market impact: Negative for ILS, as subdued sentiment underscores the drag from inflation, high rates, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Historical context: The index has stayed under 50 for over a year, highlighting weak consumer confidence compared to pre-2022 levels.

• Gold Production (YoY, Jul): -0.4%, slipping from June’s +2.9%, reflecting weaker gold output.
• Mining Production (YoY, Jul): +4.4%, well above expectations (+2.5%), supported by gains in other minerals.

Market impact: Slightly positive for ZAR, as broader mining strength offsets weakness in gold, boosting export prospects.

Historical context: July marks the fifth month of positive mining growth in 2025, underscoring resilience in South Africa’s key resource sector despite volatility in precious metals.

• Current Account Balance (Q2): -82.8B ZAR, sharply larger than Q1’s -47.8B.
• Current Account (% of GDP, Q2): -1.1%, compared to -0.6% previously, reflecting weaker trade performance and income outflows.

Market impact: Negative for ZAR, as the wider deficit highlights external financing needs and vulnerability to global capital flows.

Historical context: The deficit is the largest since 2022, underscoring pressure from softer export revenues and high import demand.

• Retail Sales (MoM, Jul): -0.3%, in line with forecasts (-0.3%) and down from June’s -0.1%, reflecting weaker monthly demand.
• Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +1.0%, above expectations (+0.8%) and higher than June’s +0.3%, showing modest annual growth.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL, as the monthly weakness offsets the mild annual improvement, keeping consumption trends mixed.

Historical context: Despite the July dip, retail activity remains stronger than in 2023, but far below pre-pandemic growth rates.

• Industrial Production (MoM, Jul): -1.2%, below expectations (-0.2%) and June’s -0.3%, showing broad-based weakness.
• Industrial Production (YoY, Jul): -2.7%, far weaker than forecasts (-0.9%) and June’s -0.4%, marking the steepest annual drop since 2020.

Market impact: Negative for MXN, as the contraction signals fragile industrial demand and raises downside risks to GDP growth.

Historical context: July’s slump breaks the recovery trend seen earlier in 2024, highlighting Mexico’s exposure to weaker U.S. demand and domestic bottlenecks.