EconoTicker

GDP Annualized (QoQ, Q2): +0.8%, above expectations (+0.5%) and Q1’s +0.1%, signaling slight quarterly momentum.

GDP (YoY, Q2): +0.6%, just below forecasts (+0.8%), reflecting subdued annual growth.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for ZAR, as modest growth eases recession fears but remains too weak to shift policy outlook.

Historical context: The economy continues to grow at a sluggish pace, with structural constraints—power shortages, logistics bottlenecks—limiting a stronger recovery.

Industrial Production (YoY, Jul): -1.1%, sharply down from +9.4% in June, marking the first annual contraction in 2025.

Market impact: Negative for ARS, as weakening factory activity underscores fragile domestic demand and policy uncertainty.

Historical context: The swing from strong June growth to July contraction highlights volatility in Argentina’s industrial sector amid persistent inflation and economic adjustment pressures.

Turkey’s Treasury Cash Balance (Aug) came in at +84.2B TRY, a sharp turnaround from July’s -68.5B TRY deficit, reflecting stronger revenues and tighter fiscal management.

Market impact: Positive for TRY and Turkish bonds, as a large cash surplus eases financing pressures and supports fiscal stability.

Historical context: The +84.2B TRY surplus is the largest monthly gain since late 2022 and well above the 12-month average (~-25B deficit), marking a notable improvement in Turkey’s fiscal position.

IGP-DI Inflation Index (MoM, Aug): +0.20%, rebounding from -0.07% in July, signaling mild price pressures in wholesale and construction sectors.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for BRL, as inflation remains subdued, giving policymakers room to maintain accommodative conditions.

Historical context: The IGP-DI has fluctuated around zero in recent months, reflecting uneven cost dynamics across Brazil’s economy compared to the strong inflationary spikes of 2021–22.

Israel’s Foreign Exchange Reserves (Aug) rose to $230.32B, up from $226.77B in July, reflecting a steady buildup of external buffers.

Market impact: Supportive for ILS, as stronger reserves enhance the Bank of Israel’s ability to stabilize markets and manage FX volatility.

Historical context: At $230.3B, reserves are near record highs and well above the 12-month average (~$220B), underscoring Israel’s robust external position despite regional and global uncertainties.

Brazil’s PPI (MoM, Jul) declined -0.3%, a smaller drop than June’s sharp -1.25%, showing continued but easing producer price deflation.

Market impact: Slightly negative for BRL in the short term, as persistent producer deflation pressures industrial margins, though easing declines may soften concerns.

Historical context: The -0.3% fall is milder than the 12-month average (~-0.7%), but July marks the 10th negative print in the past year, highlighting ongoing disinflation in Brazil’s industrial sector.

India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves rose to $694.23B, up from $690.72B the previous week, marking a modest increase in external buffers.

Market impact: Supportive for INR, as stronger reserves enhance stability and provide more room for RBI intervention if needed.

Historical context: At $694B, reserves are near record highs and well above the 12-month average (~$640B), reinforcing India’s position as one of the strongest reserve holders among emerging markets.

• Foreign Reserves (Aug): $70.42B, up from July’s $69.16B, showing modest accumulation.
• Net FX Reserves (Aug): $65.90B, higher than July’s $65.14B, reinforcing external stability.

Market impact: Supportive for ZAR, as stronger reserves provide the central bank with more capacity to defend the currency amid volatility.

Historical context: At $70.4B, reserves are near their 12-month high and above the yearly average (~$68.5B), signaling improved external buffers despite challenging global conditions.

• Gross Fixed Investments (YoY, Jun): -6.4%, worse than expectations (-4.6%) but an improvement from May’s -7.1%.
• Gross Fixed Investments (MoM, Jun): -1.4%, below forecasts (0.0%) and May’s +0.9%, signaling renewed monthly weakness.

Market impact: Negative for MXN and Mexican equities, as sluggish investment dampens growth prospects despite slight year-on-year improvement.

Historical context: The -6.4% YoY drop is well below the 12-month average (~-2.5%), showing that fixed investment remains one of the weakest components of Mexico’s economy.

• FX Reserves (Aug): $416.29B, up from $411.33B in July, showing stronger external buffers.
• Current Account (Jul): $10.78B, below June’s $14.27B, reflecting a narrower surplus as imports and services balances weighed.

Market impact: Mixed for KRW — higher reserves support stability, but a smaller current account surplus may limit upside for the currency.

Historical context: FX reserves at $416.3B are near record highs and above the 12-month average ($414B). The $10.78B surplus is below the 12-month average ($11.5B), marking one of the weaker monthly balances this year.

• S&P Global Services PMI (Aug): 49.3, improving sharply from July’s 46.3, though still below 50, indicating a slower pace of contraction.
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug): 48.8, also higher than July’s 46.6, suggesting overall business activity is stabilizing.

Market impact: Supportive for BRL and local equities, as the easing contraction points to tentative recovery momentum.

Historical context: The 49.3 Services PMI is the highest since April 2024 and above the 12-month average (~48.5), signaling progress toward stabilization even if growth has not yet returned.

Brazil’s Foreign Exchange Flows recorded -0.231B USD, a much smaller outflow compared to July’s -1.982B USD, signaling easing external pressure.

Market impact: Supportive for BRL, as reduced capital outflows improve liquidity conditions and stabilize the currency outlook.

Historical context: The -0.231B figure is well below the 12-month average outflow (~-1.1B), marking one of the mildest capital exits in over a year, suggesting sentiment toward Brazil’s assets is stabilizing.