EconoTicker

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 35.4, up from 32.7 in August, though still well below the neutral 50 level, reflecting persistent pessimism.

Market impact: Neutral for TRY, as sentiment remains subdued despite the uptick, highlighting ongoing household strain from high inflation and tight monetary policy.

Historical context: While September’s reading marks a 6-month high, consumer confidence in Türkiye has been below 50 since 2018, underscoring long-standing structural challenges.

• One-Week Repo Rate: 40.50%, down from 43.00% in August and below expectations of 41.00%.
• Overnight Borrowing Rate: 39.00%, from 41.50%.
• Overnight Lending Rate: 43.50%, from 46.00%.

Market impact: Negative for TRY, as the rate cut signals earlier-than-expected easing despite persistent inflationary pressures.

Historical context: This marks the CBRT’s first policy rate cut since 2023, reflecting a pivot toward growth support, though risks to price stability remain elevated.

Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +13.0%, easing from June’s +14.7%, showing softer annual momentum.

Retail Sales (MoM, Jul): -0.2%, reversing June’s +1.3%, reflecting weaker short-term demand.

Market impact: Slightly negative for TRY, as cooling retail activity signals consumer headwinds under tight monetary policy.

Historical context: Despite the July slowdown, annual growth remains in double digits, but still well below the inflation rate, highlighting pressure on real consumption.

• CPI (MoM, Aug): +1.9%, matching July and just below expectations (+2.0%), showing persistent but stable monthly pressures.
• CPI (YoY, Aug): +33.6%, slightly below forecasts (+33.7%) and easing from July’s +37.6%, marking the lowest annual rate since early 2023.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for ARS bonds, as disinflation continues, though price growth remains very high by global standards.

Historical context: Inflation has slowed for five straight months, but at over 30% y/y, Argentina remains among the world’s most inflationary economies.

Foreign Exchange Flows: +$0.28B, reversing the prior week’s -$0.23B, as foreign capital returned to Brazilian markets.

Market impact: Slightly positive for BRL, with renewed inflows supporting currency stability.

Historical context: The swing back to positive flows highlights ongoing volatility in capital movement, but overall, 2025 has seen steadier FX inflows compared to 2023.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 51.66, up from 51.04 in August, staying above the neutral 50 mark, signaling ongoing optimism.

Market impact: Slightly positive for BRL, as resilient sentiment supports household demand despite tight monetary conditions.

Historical context: The index has remained above 50 for six consecutive months, its longest positive stretch since 2019, reflecting steady improvement in consumer outlook.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 43.91, down from 44.24 in August, remaining well below the neutral 50 level, underscoring persistent consumer pessimism.

Market impact: Negative for ARS, as weak sentiment reflects household strain from high inflation and economic instability.

Historical context: The index has stayed below 50 since mid-2022, highlighting deep structural challenges and eroded purchasing power.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 52.74, down from 53.15 in August, but still above the neutral 50 level, indicating ongoing consumer optimism.

Market impact: Neutral for MXN, as sentiment remains positive but shows mild weakening amid inflation and growth concerns.

Historical context: The index has stayed above 50 for eight consecutive months, highlighting resilience in consumer outlook compared to the post-pandemic lows.

CPI (YoY, Aug): +5.13%, nearly in line with expectations (+5.10%) and slightly below July’s +5.23%.

CPI (MoM, Aug): -0.11%, softer than forecasts (-0.15%) and a reversal from July’s +0.26%.

IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM, Aug): -0.04%, down from +0.35% previously, showing mild disinflation.

Market impact: Slightly positive for BRL bonds, as softer inflation supports expectations of stable rates. Neutral for FX, since annual CPI remains above the 3% target midpoint.

Historical context: This is the first negative monthly CPI print since 2023, highlighting easing food and transport prices, though annual inflation is still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Industrial Production (YoY, Jul): +5.0%, down from +8.3% in June, showing a moderation in factory activity.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for TRY, as growth remains positive but decelerating, raising concerns about momentum under tight monetary conditions.

Historical context: Despite the slowdown, July marks the sixth consecutive month of annual expansion, highlighting resilience compared to last year’s contractionary trend.

Unemployment Rate (Aug): 2.6%, up slightly from 2.5% in July, but still near historic lows, reflecting a tight labor market.

Market impact: Neutral for KRW, as the marginal uptick does not alter the broader view of labor-market stability.

Historical context: Korea’s unemployment rate has hovered between 2.4–2.8% since early 2023, among the lowest in the OECD, underscoring structural labor resilience.

Auto Production (MoM, Aug): +3.0%, slowing sharply from July’s +15.7%, but still positive, indicating moderating output growth.

Auto Sales (MoM, Aug): -7.3%, reversing July’s strong +14.2%, reflecting weaker consumer demand.

Market impact: Slightly negative for BRL, as softer auto sales outweigh production gains, signaling fragile domestic demand.

Historical context: Following a strong rebound in July, August's data highlights volatility in Brazil’s auto industry, a key indicator of industrial and consumer activity.