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• Industrial Production (MoM, Jul): -0.2%, in line with expectations and weaker than June’s flat 0.0%.
• Industrial Production (YoY, Jul): +0.2%, slightly below forecasts (+0.3%) but a recovery from June’s -1.3%, marking the first positive print in months.

Market impact: Neutral-to-supportive for BRL, as monthly weakness is offset by the return to annual growth, hinting at a tentative industrial recovery.

Historical context: The +0.2% YoY figure is above the 12-month average (~-0.5%), signaling a modest rebound, though the sector remains fragile compared with its pre-pandemic trend.

• Consumer Confidence (Aug): 46.7, higher than July’s 46.0, signaling a modest uptick in household sentiment.
• Consumer Confidence n.s.a. (Aug): 46.5, also up from 45.8 previously, confirming broad-based improvement.

Market impact: Supportive for MXN and local equities, as stronger consumer sentiment suggests resilience in domestic demand.

Historical context: At 46.7, confidence is above the 12-month average (~45.5) but still well below pre-pandemic highs (~50+), highlighting gradual but incomplete recovery in household optimism.

India’s M3 Money Supply grew +9.8%, down from +10.0% previously, signaling a mild slowdown in liquidity expansion.

Market impact: Neutral for INR — growth remains strong enough to support activity, but slower money supply may ease inflationary concerns.

Historical context: The +9.8% pace is slightly below the 12-month average (~10.2%), but still above the 5-year average (~9.0%), showing liquidity remains ample by historical standards.

South Africa’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) eased to 50.1, slightly below July’s 50.3, but remained above the neutral 50 mark, signaling modest expansion.

Market impact: Neutral for ZAR — continued expansion supports stability, though the slowdown tempers optimism.

Historical context: The 50.1 print is close to the 12-month average (~49.9) and marks the second straight month above 50, showing the sector is stabilizing after a prolonged contraction period.

• Exports (Aug): $21.8B, sharply lower than July’s $24.9B, pointing to weaker external demand.
• Trade Balance (Aug): -4.17B, an improvement from July’s -6.40B, as imports contracted faster than exports.

Market impact: Mixed for TRY — narrower deficit supports the currency, but falling exports highlight pressure on Turkey’s growth outlook.

Historical context: The $21.8B export figure is below the 12-month average ($23.5B), while the -$4.17B deficit is narrower than the 12-month average (-$5.2B), showing trade imbalances are easing mainly due to softer import demand.

• CPI (MoM, Aug): +2.04%, higher than expectations (+1.79%) and close to July’s +2.06%.
• CPI (YoY, Aug): +32.95%, above forecasts (+32.60%) but easing slightly from July’s +33.52%.
• PPI (MoM, Aug): +2.48% vs. +1.73% prior. PPI (YoY): +25.16%, up from +24.19%.
• Core CPI (ex E,F,B,T&G, YoY): +33.0%, down from +34.7%; monthly core +1.7%, in line with estimates.

Market impact: Mixed for TRY — sticky inflation keeps pressure on households and risks weighing on growth, but slowing core readings may give the CBRT some breathing room.

Historical context: The 32.95% CPI YoY remains far above the 5-year average (~27%) but marks the lowest level since early 2024, showing disinflation progress is gradual and fragile.

India’s S&P Global Services PMI (Aug) climbed to 62.9, up from July’s 60.5 but below expectations of 65.6, showing continued robust expansion despite missing forecasts. The Composite PMI also rose to 63.2% (exp. 65.2%, prev. 61.1%), confirming broad-based growth momentum.

Market impact: Supportive for INR and equities, as activity strengthened further, though the softer-than-expected print may temper overly bullish sentiment.

Historical context: At 62.9, Services PMI remains well above the 12-month average (~60.8%), reinforcing India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies, even with some cooling versus expectations.

South Korea’s FX Reserves (Aug) increased to $416.29B, up from $411.33B in July, marking a solid monthly gain. The build-up reflects central bank interventions and valuation effects.

Market impact: Supportive for KRW, as stronger reserves enhance external stability and provide more policy flexibility.

Historical context: At $416.3B, reserves are near record highs and above the 12-month average (~$414B), reinforcing South Korea’s strong external buffer despite global volatility.

Brazil’s GDP (YoY, Q2) expanded +2.2%, in line with expectations but below Q1’s +2.9%. On a quarterly basis, GDP (QoQ, Q2) rose +0.4%, slightly above forecasts (+0.3%) but sharply lower than Q1’s +1.3%. The data confirms a deceleration in momentum, though still showing resilience.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL and local assets; steady growth reduces fears of recession but weaker YoY pace may keep monetary policy accommodative.

Historical context: The +2.2% YoY growth is below Brazil’s 5-year average (~+2.6%) and marks the slowest annual pace since early 2023, highlighting cooling demand after last year’s strong rebound.

Brazil’s IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (MoM, Aug) rose just +0.04%, far below July’s +0.28%, signaling a sharp deceleration in consumer price pressures.

Market impact: Negative for BRL, as softer inflation strengthens expectations for further monetary easing by the central bank.

Historical context: The +0.04% reading is the weakest since late 2023 and well below the 12-month average of around +0.25%, confirming a clear cooling trend in inflation momentum.

South Korea’s CPI (MoM, Aug) fell -0.1%, missing expectations (+0.2%) and below July’s +0.2%. On an annual basis, CPI (YoY) slowed to 1.7%, under forecasts (2.0%) and July’s 2.1%.

Market impact: Negative for KRW as softer inflation strengthens the case for easier monetary policy by the Bank of Korea.

Historical context: The 1.7% YoY CPI is the lowest since early 2021 and well below the 12-month average of ~2.7%, confirming a clear disinflation trend in the Korean economy.

South Africa’s Manufacturing PMI (Aug) fell to 49.5, down from 50.8 in July, moving back into contraction territory.

Market impact: Negative for ZAR and local equities, as weakening factory activity signals softer economic momentum.

Historical context: The 49.5 print is below the 12-month average of ~50.3, showing the sector continues to struggle with volatility and demand pressures.