EconoTicker

• Unemployment Rate (Jul): 5.6% (vs. 5.7% prior, 5.8% expected), marking a slight improvement in labor market conditions.

Market impact: Supportive for BRL, as easing unemployment reinforces Brazil’s economic resilience and may reduce pressure for near-term monetary easing.

Historical context: The jobless rate has hovered near multi-year lows since late 2023, reflecting steady labor demand despite tighter financial conditions.

• GDP Annualized (QoQ, Q2): -4.0% (vs. -3.5% prior, +3.5% expected), marking a steep downturn in growth.

Market impact: Negative for ILS, as the sharp contraction signals mounting economic pressures, potentially increasing calls for supportive fiscal and monetary measures.

Historical context: This is Israel’s deepest quarterly contraction since the pandemic shock in 2020, reversing the moderate recovery seen in early 2024.

• M3 Money Supply (Jul): ₩5,906.8B (vs. ₩5,851.1B prior)
• M2 Money Supply (YoY, Jul): +6.4% (vs. +5.4% prior)

Market impact: Neutral-to-mildly negative for KRW, as faster money growth could stoke inflationary concerns, keeping the Bank of Korea cautious on policy.

Historical context: M2 growth has picked up to its fastest pace since late 2022, reflecting stronger liquidity conditions despite a challenging economic backdrop.

• Export Price Index (YoY, Aug): -1.0% (vs. -4.5% prior)
• Import Price Index (YoY, Aug): -2.2% (vs. -5.9% prior)

Market impact: Mildly supportive for KRW, as the slower decline in trade prices suggests easing deflationary pressures in external trade.

Historical context: Both export and import price declines have moderated from earlier in 2024, reflecting more stable commodity prices and currency effects, though levels remain below last year.

• CPI (YoY, Aug): +2.9% (vs. +2.8% prior, +3.1% expected)
• CPI (MoM, Aug): +0.7% (vs. +0.6% prior, +0.4% expected)

Market impact: Supportive for ILS, as stronger monthly inflation may keep the Bank of Israel cautious on rate cuts despite inflation staying within the target range.

Historical context: Inflation remains below the 3% ceiling of the BoI’s target but has edged higher for two consecutive months, signaling persistent price pressures.

• IBC-Br Economic Activity Index (Jul): -0.50% (vs. -0.20% prior, -0.10% expected), signaling a sharper slowdown in monthly growth momentum.

Market impact: Negative for BRL, as weaker activity raises concerns over Brazil’s near-term growth outlook and may fuel expectations of looser monetary policy.

Historical context: This is the steepest monthly decline in activity since late 2023, underscoring fragile recovery dynamics amid tighter financial conditions and external headwinds.

• Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Aug): 2.9% (vs. 3.1% prior), marking an improvement in labor market conditions.

Market impact: Supportive for ILS, as lower unemployment underscores economic resilience and may reduce pressure on the Bank of Israel to ease policy.

Historical context: This is the lowest unemployment rate since mid-2023, reflecting strong labor demand despite global and regional uncertainties.

• Exports (Aug): $35.10B (vs. $37.24B prior)
• Imports (Aug): $61.59B (vs. $64.59B prior)
• Trade Balance (Aug): -$26.49B (vs. -$27.35B prior)

Market impact: Neutral-to-mildly supportive for INR, as the deficit narrowed, though weaker exports highlight ongoing challenges from soft global demand.

Historical context: India’s trade deficit remains historically wide, with monthly shortfalls above $20B persisting since early 2022, reflecting strong import dependency and volatile export performance.

• Budget Balance (Aug): ₺96.7B (vs. -₺23.9B prior), marking a sharp swing back into surplus.

Market impact: Positive for TRY in the near term, as stronger fiscal discipline supports investor confidence. However, seasonal factors may partly explain the sharp improvement.

Historical context: This is Turkey’s largest monthly budget surplus since early 2024, offering some relief after consecutive deficits driven by high spending and debt servicing.

• WPI Inflation (YoY, Aug): +0.52% (vs. +0.30% prior, -0.58% expected)
• WPI Food (YoY, Aug): -3.06% (vs. -6.29% prior)
• WPI Fuel (YoY, Aug): -3.17% (vs. -2.43% prior)
• WPI Manufacturing (YoY, Aug): +2.55% (vs. +2.05% prior)

Market impact: Supportive for INR, as a return to positive wholesale inflation signals reviving price pressures, reducing expectations of near-term monetary easing by the RBI.

Historical context: This marks the second straight month of recovery from deflation, with food price declines narrowing and manufacturing costs firming, highlighting a gradual normalization in India’s price environment.

• August Exports (YoY): +1.2% (vs. +1.3% prior, +4.3% expected)
• August Imports (YoY): -4.1% (vs. -4.0% prior, +3.3% expected)
• Trade Balance: $6.51B, unchanged from prior, below $9.08B expected.

Market impact: Mixed for KRW — while the surplus remains solid, weaker-than-expected export growth and persistent import contraction highlight fragility in trade momentum.

Historical context: The surplus has stayed positive for 17 consecutive months, but export growth has slowed notably from the rebound seen earlier this year.

• Service Sector Growth (MoM, Jul): +0.3%, slightly below June’s +0.4%, but still positive.
• Service Sector Growth (YoY, Jul): +2.8%, matching June and showing steady annual momentum.

Market impact: Slightly positive for BRL, as services remain a key driver of domestic demand resilience.

Historical context: The sector has posted positive annual growth for over a year, underscoring its role in cushioning Brazil’s economy amid volatile industrial output.