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Brazil’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (consumer sentiment) rose to 55.14 in January, up from 53.15 previously, pointing to a clearer improvement in household confidence at the start of the year. A move like this typically reflects easing inflation stress, better real income expectations, and/or improving labor-market perceptions—factors that can support near-term consumption momentum.

Market impact: Mildly BRL-supportive at the margin and constructive for domestically oriented Brazilian equities (retail, banks) if the trend persists. Policy impact is usually limited unless sentiment strength feeds into faster spending and renewed inflation pressure.

South Korea’s monetary aggregates point to a gradual cooling in liquidity growth. M3 stood at KRW 5,999.3T in November (vs KRW 6,006.1T prior), while M2 money supply growth eased to 6.8% (vs 7.1% prior). The deceleration suggests financial conditions are becoming less expansionary at the margin—consistent with slower credit impulse and a more measured domestic demand backdrop.

Market impact: Typically KRW-neutral in the near term. Softer money growth can be modestly bond-supportive and gives the Bank of Korea more flexibility if activity weakens, but FX direction remains dominated by USD moves, risk sentiment, and the semiconductor cycle.

South Korea’s unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in December, up sharply from 2.7% previously, pointing to a notable deterioration in labor-market conditions at year-end. While seasonal factors can amplify December moves, the magnitude of the increase suggests genuine softness in hiring and employment momentum, adding to concerns about domestic demand and growth resilience amid a slowing global cycle.

Market impact: Mildly KRW-negative at the margin and supportive for Korean bonds, as a weaker labor market can give the Bank of Korea more room to lean dovish if growth risks intensify. Equity impact is mixed, with domestic-facing sectors more exposed than exporters.

South Korea’s Export Price Index rose 5.5% YoY in December (vs 6.8% prior), while the Import Price Index increased just 0.3% YoY (vs 1.9% prior). The step-down in both measures points to easing price pressures in Korea’s trade channel—consistent with a cooler global goods inflation impulse and less imported-cost pressure. A wider gap between export and import price inflation can also be read as mildly supportive for terms-of-trade dynamics, depending on volumes and currency effects.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Korean disinflation and could be bond-friendly at the margin, potentially giving the BoK more flexibility if domestic growth softens. For KRW, the direct effect is usually limited; FX remains driven by global risk tone, USD moves, and semiconductor-cycle expectations.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, escalating a trade dispute that began a year earlier when Ottawa imposed tariffs on Chinese electric-vehicle imports. The measures have effectively shut Canadian canola out of what had been its largest export market, adding pressure on Canada’s farm sector and complicating Prime Minister Mark Carney’s effort to rebalance trade ties as relations with the U.S. turn more uncertain. Analyst Ong argued the EV tariff was introduced during the Biden era and is now strategically less necessary if alignment with Washington is no longer Ottawa’s top priority, noting China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner after the U.S. Political pushback is emerging at home: Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Carney not to “back down,” saying EV tariffs should only be lifted if China commits to building manufacturing capacity in Ontario.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney departs for China on Tuesday for a Jan. 14–17 trip—Canada’s first prime-ministerial visit to Beijing since 2017—to discuss trade and international security as Ottawa grapples with more uncertain ties with Washington amid a trade war and Trump’s annexation rhetoric. Carney agreed to the visit after meeting Xi Jinping in South Korea in October 2025, as Canada explores new partnerships following years of friction that worsened after the 2018 arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and subsequent diplomatic fallout.

Taiwan is seeking to reduce U.S. tariffs on its exports to 15% from 20%, and reporting says the Trump administration is nearing a trade deal that would deliver that cut while pressing TSMC to commit to at least five additional facilities in Arizona. Taiwan has framed its offer around helping the U.S. replicate its “science park” model—building tech clusters around dedicated hubs—while TSMC has already pledged $165 billion in U.S. investment and declined to comment on any further expansion. Notably, Taiwan’s chips are not subject to the U.S. tariffs, so the negotiations are primarily about broader Taiwanese exports and the investment quid pro quo.

Market impact: Supportive for Taiwan/HK tech sentiment and for the “reshoring” capex narrative (U.S. construction/equipment supply chain), but could raise margin and execution questions if commitments become more binding. For semis, the headline is more about capacity location and geopolitics than near-term chip pricing, given the tariff exemption for chips.

Brazil’s seasonally adjusted inflation measure ticked up in December. The IPCA inflation index (SA) rose 0.26% m/m, up from 0.12% previously, suggesting somewhat firmer underlying monthly price momentum once seasonal effects are stripped out. While the level is not extreme, the acceleration can be read as a reminder that disinflation is gradual and may not be perfectly smooth month-to-month.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Brazilian rates at the margin (less room for aggressive easing) and broadly BRL-neutral unless followed by stronger core measures. FX remains driven mainly by commodities, global risk sentiment, and fiscal policy credibility.

Brazil’s December CPI came in slightly softer than expected, reinforcing a gradual disinflation signal at the margin. Headline CPI rose 0.33% m/m (0.35% expected, 0.18% prior) and slowed to 4.26% y/y (4.30% expected, 4.46% prior). The annual deceleration is constructive, even as the monthly print picked up from the prior month—suggesting price pressures are easing on trend but not disappearing.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Brazilian bonds and slightly BRL-negative at the margin—softer inflation can support a more dovish policy bias if the trend holds, though BRL remains heavily influenced by commodities, global risk, and fiscal headlines.

Mexico’s November industrial data was mixed but slightly better than feared. Industrial production rose 0.6% m/m (0.0% expected, 0.9% prior), showing activity held up on a monthly basis and beat forecasts. However, the annual picture remains soft: output fell -0.8% y/y (-1.2% expected, -0.3% prior), meaning industry is still contracting versus last year, albeit less than expected.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Mexican risk assets and local bonds at the margin—better monthly momentum helps sentiment, but persistent y/y contraction keeps the growth narrative cautious. For MXN, the signal is modest, with FX still dominated by global risk appetite and rate differentials.

Turkey’s industrial sector showed a clear improvement in November. Industrial production rose 2.5% m/m (prior -0.7%), a strong rebound that suggests a pickup in near-term activity after the prior month’s contraction. On an annual basis, output growth also edged higher: industrial production increased 2.4% y/y (prior 2.2%), indicating moderate but steady expansion.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Turkish growth sentiment and local risk assets, but TRY impact is mixed—stronger activity can be supportive, yet it may also complicate disinflation and keep policy tight for longer. FX remains primarily driven by inflation credibility, reserves dynamics, and CBRT communication.

South Korea’s external balance improved sharply in November. The current account surplus widened to $12.24B from $6.81B previously, pointing to stronger net inflows and a healthier trade/income balance. A larger surplus typically signals solid export performance and provides a stabilizing buffer for the currency, especially during periods of global risk volatility.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for KRW at the margin—stronger external surpluses reduce vulnerability to funding shocks. However, near-term KRW direction remains highly sensitive to global risk sentiment, U.S. yields, and the semiconductor cycle.