EconoTicker

Türkiye’s Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Manufacturing PMI edged up to 48.9 in December (48.0 prior), signaling a modest improvement in operating conditions but remaining below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The uptick suggests the pace of deterioration eased into year-end, yet the still-sub-50 reading indicates manufacturing remains under pressure—likely reflecting tight financial conditions, weak domestic demand pockets, and ongoing cost dynamics.

Market impact: Slightly supportive for TRY at the margin as the improvement reduces near-term growth downside fears, but the sub-50 level keeps the broader macro tone cautious. For Turkish assets, the data argues for continued sensitivity to rates, liquidity conditions, and inflation trends—PMI stabilization helps sentiment, but does not on its own signal a clear growth re-acceleration.

South Korea’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in December (49.4 prior), moving back above the 50 threshold and signaling a tentative return to expansion. While the improvement is modest, it suggests factory conditions stabilized into year-end after a prior month in contraction—an encouraging datapoint alongside stronger trade figures, though the narrow margin above 50 implies the rebound is still fragile.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for KRW and local equities—crossing back above 50 can improve near-term sentiment around growth. However, the thin expansion reading is unlikely to materially shift Bank of Korea expectations on its own, keeping broader risk pricing driven by inflation, global demand, and USD direction.

South Korea’s December trade data surprised to the upside, pointing to a firmer external backdrop into year-end. Exports rose 13.4% y/y (8.3% expected, 8.4% prior), while imports increased 4.6% y/y (2.4% expected, 1.1% prior). The trade balance improved to a $12.18B surplus ($10.00B expected, $9.74B prior), signaling stronger net exports and a supportive impulse for Q4 growth momentum, even as import growth indicates domestic demand is holding up.

Market impact: Generally supportive for KRW and South Korea risk assets—stronger exports and a wider surplus can reduce macro headwinds and ease balance-of-payments concerns. For global markets, the data is modestly constructive for broader Asia sentiment, while also reinforcing expectations that trade-sensitive sectors may remain resilient if external demand stays firm.

South Africa’s trade balance improved markedly in November, posting a ZAR 37.73B surplus, up from ZAR 15.58B previously. The stronger external position points to favorable export dynamics and/or softer imports, improving the near-term balance-of-payments backdrop.

Market impact: Supportive for ZAR—an expanding trade surplus strengthens external fundamentals and can help cushion the currency against global risk swings, with durability depending on commodity prices and import demand.

Turkey’s exports came in at $22.50B in November, below the $22.70B forecast and down from $23.90B previously. The trade balance posted a -$7.98B deficit, wider than both the -$7.80B expectation and the -$7.58B prior print, indicating a modest deterioration in the external trade position.

Market impact: Mildly negative for TRY—softer exports and a wider deficit can add pressure to the external financing narrative, though FX direction remains heavily influenced by inflation dynamics, CBRT policy, and broader risk sentiment.

South Africa’s monetary and credit indicators strengthened in November, with M3 money supply growth rising to 8.26% y/y (prior 7.52%) and private sector credit expanding 7.79% y/y (prior 7.26%). The pickup suggests a firmer liquidity and lending impulse heading into year-end, which can support activity but may also keep policymakers attentive to inflation and financial conditions.

Market impact: Neutral-to-mildly supportive for ZAR—stronger credit growth can underpin domestic demand and bank earnings, but could also temper aggressive rate-cut expectations if it feeds into inflation pressures.

South Korea’s CPI held at 2.3% y/y in December, matching expectations and easing slightly from 2.4% previously. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% m/m, above the 0.2% forecast and rebounding from -0.2% prior, pointing to some short-term price firming while overall inflation remains broadly controlled.

Market impact: Neutral for KRW—stable year-on-year inflation keeps policy expectations steady, though the firmer monthly print may temper near-term easing expectations at the margin.

Mexico’s fiscal balance posted a -200.52B deficit in November, a significant deterioration versus the -16.75B prior reading. The sharp swing points to heavier spending and/or weaker revenues late in the year, raising near-term questions around budget execution and financing needs, even as broader EM sentiment has been supportive.

Market impact: Mildly negative for MXN and local rates at the margin—wider deficits can lift risk premia and borrowing costs unless offset by strong growth, credible consolidation plans, or favorable external conditions.

Brazil’s CAGED net formal payroll jobs increased by 85.86K in November, above the 75.0K expectation and slightly higher than the 85.15K prior reading. The print signals steady labor-market resilience and continued hiring momentum in the formal sector, supporting the view that domestic activity remains firm.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL—solid employment can underpin growth sentiment and limit aggressive rate-cut pricing if it feeds into wages and services inflation.

Argentina emerged as a standout market amid sharp, politically driven volatility. Assets sold off heavily after President Javier Milei suffered a decisive regional election defeat in September, only to surge weeks later after a reported $20 billion pledge from U.S. President Donald Trump bolstered confidence and helped Milei secure a strong victory in national midterm elections. The reversal underscored the market’s sensitivity to political backing and external funding signals.

Market impact: Argentine assets remain highly volatile, with rallies driven by political support and financing prospects rather than fundamentals, keeping risk premia elevated.

Global markets in 2025 delivered unusually sharp divergences. South Korean equities surged around 70%, while defaulted Venezuelan bonds generated near-100% returns, reflecting aggressive risk-taking in distressed assets. Precious metals were standout performers, with silver up roughly 165% and platinum gaining about 145%, supported by dollar weakness and safe-haven demand. In bond markets, a combination of three U.S. rate cuts, President Donald Trump’s repeated criticism of the Federal Reserve, and growing concerns over sovereign and fiscal debt reshaped yield dynamics and volatility across global fixed income.

Market impact: The scale of these moves underscores elevated risk appetite, weakening confidence in fiat currencies, and rising sensitivity to U.S. monetary and fiscal policy credibility.

Brazil’s unemployment rate declined to 5.2% in November, below 5.4% expected and improving from 5.4% previously. The stronger labor-market reading points to tighter employment conditions and resilience in domestic activity, even as markets remain attentive to inflation and fiscal signals.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL on the margin—tighter labor conditions can be interpreted as growth-resilient and potentially inflation-relevant, which may temper aggressive rate-cut pricing if reinforced by wages and CPI.