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Brazil’s activity indicators strengthened sharply in December, led by services. The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 53.7 (prior 50.1), while the Composite PMI climbed to 52.1 (prior 49.6), moving both measures firmly back into expansion territory. The rebound points to improved demand conditions and a stronger end-of-year growth pulse, reversing the prior month’s near-stall/soft patch.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL and Brazil risk assets at the margin—stronger activity can reduce near-term growth concerns, though it may also keep markets attentive to inflation persistence and the path of policy easing. Local rates could see a modest headwind if investors price a slower disinflation trajectory.

Mexico’s consumer confidence improved modestly in December. The headline index rose to 44.7 (prior 44.2), while the non-seasonally adjusted measure increased to 44.8 (prior 44.0). The uptick suggests household sentiment firmed at the margin into year-end, consistent with steady domestic demand conditions, though confidence levels remain moderate in absolute terms.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for MXN and local consumer-linked equities at the margin, but the FX impact is typically limited. Peso direction remains more sensitive to global risk appetite, U.S. rates, and Banxico policy expectations than to this single sentiment print.

Brazil’s IPC-Fipe inflation index rose 0.32% m/m in December, accelerating from 0.20% previously. The uptick points to slightly firmer near-term price pressures at the margin, consistent with a less straightforward disinflation path and keeping attention on how quickly inflation converges in early 2026.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL via a firmer inflation backdrop, but potentially a headwind for local bonds if markets price a slower easing cycle. In practice, BRL remains highly sensitive to global risk appetite, commodity prices, and Brazil’s fiscal/policy headlines.

Turkey’s external trade data showed a strong rise in exports alongside a wider deficit. Exports climbed to $26.40B in December (prior $22.50B), pointing to a notable pickup in outbound shipments into year-end. However, the trade balance deteriorated to -$9.40B (prior -$7.98B), implying imports likely rose as well and/or energy and intermediate goods costs kept the import bill elevated, offsetting the export improvement.

Market impact: Mixed for TRY—stronger exports are supportive, but a wider deficit can keep external financing needs in focus. For rates, a larger trade gap can reinforce sensitivity around FX stability and disinflation credibility, leaving CBRT messaging and reserve dynamics as key market drivers.

South Africa’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in December (prior 49.0), signaling a deeper contraction in factory activity into year-end. The decline suggests weaker demand and softer output/order dynamics, keeping the manufacturing sector under pressure and reinforcing the broader theme of uneven growth momentum.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ZAR at the margin—softer manufacturing can weigh on growth sentiment and reinforce risk sensitivity. However, currency direction will remain more driven by global risk appetite, commodity prices, and domestic policy signals than by this single PMI print.

South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves fell to $428.05B in December from $430.66B previously, indicating a modest drawdown. The level remains substantial by historical standards, suggesting Korea still has a strong liquidity buffer even as markets remain sensitive to global dollar cycles and risk sentiment.

Market impact: Largely neutral for KRW—a small monthly decline is not a stress signal on its own. FX direction will remain more driven by global risk appetite, U.S. rate expectations, and Korea’s trade/semiconductor cycle than by this reserve move.

Analysts arguing Elon Musk could reach $1 trillion net worth are increasingly pointing to his private-asset stack—especially SpaceX—rather than relying on any new Tesla compensation. Recent reporting puts SpaceX around an $800 billion valuation after a tender offer, with separate coverage suggesting a potential 2026 IPO could seek a valuation north of $1 trillion—a step-change that would dominate Musk’s wealth math given his large stake. The thesis remains highly valuation-sensitive: private marks can move quickly, and execution, regulatory and market conditions will determine whether lofty IPO/secondary valuations translate into durable, realizable wealth.

Market impact: Mostly sentiment-driven for TSLA near term (headline risk vs. fundamentals), but potentially constructive for space/defense supply chains and private-market “IPO optionality” narratives if SpaceX’s valuation trajectory is validated by real capital raising and public-market demand.

The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate at 4.00% in January, below market expectations for 4.25% and down from the prior 4.25%. The decision signals a more cautious policy stance amid a still-uncertain macro backdrop, suggesting policymakers are prioritizing growth/financial stability considerations over additional near-term tightening.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ILS at the margin—an easier-than-expected rate outcome can widen the rate differential versus the U.S. and reduce carry support. For Israeli bonds, the surprise is supportive (lower expected policy path), while equities may see a modest tailwind from easier financial conditions.

Turkey’s December inflation print came in a touch softer than expected on the headline, while core dynamics moderated. CPI rose 30.89% y/y (31.00% expected, 31.07% prior) and 0.89% m/m (0.98% expected, 0.87% prior). Core CPI excluding energy, food, beverages, tobacco, and gold slowed to 0.6% m/m (prior 1.2%) and 31.1% y/y (prior 31.6%), suggesting underlying price momentum eased. On the producer side, PPI increased 0.75% m/m (prior 0.84%) and 27.67% y/y (prior 27.23%), indicating pipeline pressures were broadly stable, with a slight firming in the annual rate.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for TRY and local bonds at the margin—headline CPI under consensus and softer core can strengthen the case for gradual disinflation. However, month-on-month inflation remains sticky enough to keep CBRT’s stance sensitive to upcoming inflation and FX dynamics.

Argentina’s tax revenue increased to ARS 16,527.27B in December (prior ARS 15,598.00B), pointing to stronger nominal collections into year-end. In an inflation-heavy environment, higher peso-denominated receipts can reflect both price effects and improved activity/compliance, but the key market question remains whether revenues are keeping pace with expenditure growth and real purchasing-power erosion. The sequential rise strengthens the near-term headline for fiscal intake, though real (inflation-adjusted) performance would determine whether the fiscal stance is genuinely improving.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for ARS at the margin—stronger nominal revenues can help near-term fiscal optics and funding confidence. However, FX sensitivity remains dominated by inflation, monetary policy credibility, and reserve dynamics; markets will look for sustained fiscal consolidation signals rather than a single-month uptick.

Mexico’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.1 in December (47.3 prior), moving deeper into contraction territory and signaling a sharper deterioration in factory activity into year-end. The drop suggests weaker demand conditions and pressure on output, consistent with a cooling industrial cycle and potentially softer spillovers from external demand.

Market impact: Mildly negative for MXN and Mexico-linked risk assets at the margin—deeper contraction can raise growth concerns and keep investors focused on Banxico’s policy path and U.S. demand signals. In rates, weaker activity may support local bonds if inflation remains contained, but FX sensitivity to broader USD moves is likely to remain the dominant driver.

Brazil’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.6 in December (48.8 prior), moving further below the 50 threshold and indicating a deeper contraction in factory activity. The decline suggests weaker demand conditions and softer production momentum into year-end, consistent with tighter financial conditions and cautious business sentiment weighing on the industrial cycle.

Market impact: Mildly negative for BRL and Brazil risk assets at the margin—softer manufacturing momentum can reinforce growth downside concerns and keep investors attentive to the pace of policy easing and fiscal headlines. For rates, weaker activity data can add modest support to local bonds if inflation dynamics allow.