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Turkey’s manufacturing confidence index was unchanged at 100.8 in December (prior 100.8), indicating a stable sentiment backdrop in the industrial sector. With no month-to-month movement, the data suggests manufacturers’ expectations around orders, production, and pricing are broadly steady rather than turning decisively more optimistic or pessimistic.

Market impact: Neutral for TRY—stable confidence offers limited directional signal; markets remain focused on CBRT policy stance, inflation path, and external funding conditions.

Turkey’s capacity utilization rate held at 74.4% in December (unchanged from 74.4%), signaling a stable industrial operating rate with no fresh acceleration or slackening at the margin. The flat reading suggests the manufacturing cycle remains steady, and that near-term growth momentum is not shifting meaningfully through industrial utilization.

Market impact: Neutral for TRY—stable capacity use offers little directional signal; FX focus remains on CBRT policy credibility, inflation dynamics, and external financing conditions.

Mexico’s unemployment rate held at 2.70% in November (in line with expectations, up from 2.60%), showing the labor market remains tight even with a slight uptick versus the prior month. The non-seasonally adjusted rate was also 2.70% (prior 2.60%), confirming the increase is not just a seasonal adjustment effect.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for MXN—still-low unemployment underpins the domestic demand story and can temper aggressive Banxico easing expectations, though FX remains highly sensitive to U.S. rates and global risk sentiment.

South Korea’s consumer confidence index fell to 109.9 in December (prior 112.4), signaling a modest deterioration in household sentiment. While the level remains above the 100 threshold—still consistent with broadly optimistic conditions—the decline suggests consumers turned more cautious heading into year-end, which could temper near-term spending momentum if sustained.

Market impact: Slightly negative for KRW at the margin—cooler sentiment can weigh on the domestic demand narrative, though FX is likely to remain more sensitive to global tech-cycle conditions, risk appetite, and USD-rate moves.

Argentina’s current account deficit improved in Q3, narrowing to -$1.580B (prior -$3.016B). The smaller deficit suggests reduced external financing needs versus the previous quarter, potentially reflecting a better trade/income balance or lower import demand—though the durability of the improvement will depend on export performance, FX availability, and domestic demand conditions.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for ARS at the margin—an improving current account can ease near-term external stress, but currency dynamics remain primarily driven by inflation, policy credibility, and capital controls.

Brazil’s mid-month CPI (IPCA-15) came in slightly softer than expected in December. Prices rose 0.25% m/m (expected 0.30%, prior 0.20%), showing only a modest acceleration versus last month and remaining below consensus. On a yearly basis, inflation eased to 4.41% y/y (expected 4.40%, prior 4.50%), keeping inflation close to the mid-4% range and indicating marginal disinflation at the margin.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL rates, neutral-to-positive for BRL—slightly softer inflation can reduce pressure for a more hawkish BCB stance, but with y/y still elevated, policy expectations will stay sensitive to services inflation and fiscal signals.

Mexico posted a November trade surplus of 0.663B (expected 0.500B, prior 0.606B), a modest beat that points to a slightly stronger near-term external position. However, the trade balance reported in USD showed a -0.274B deficit (prior +1.530B), indicating net trade support looks weaker under that measure and suggesting imports may have outpaced exports in dollar terms.

Market impact: Mixed for MXN—an above-expected surplus is supportive for the external accounts narrative, but the USD deficit print can revive concerns around net-exports drag and keeps the peso sensitive to U.S. demand and risk sentiment.

Mexico’s first half-month of December inflation came in softer than expected. Headline CPI rose 0.17% (expected 0.31%, prior 0.47%), confirming a clear deceleration in near-term price momentum. Core CPI increased 0.31% (expected 0.39%, prior 0.04%), indicating underlying inflation remains moderate—firmer than the prior print but still below consensus, which supports the view that disinflation is broadly intact.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for MXN rates, mixed for MXN FX—softer inflation supports the case for continued Banxico easing and can steepen the front-end, while the peso’s spot reaction may depend on whether rate-cut expectations rise faster than risk sentiment improves.

Argentina’s economic activity rose 3.2% y/y in October (expected 3.3%, prior 4.8%), coming in slightly below forecasts and decelerating from the prior month’s pace. The data still points to expansion, but the slowdown suggests momentum is moderating, leaving the growth outlook more sensitive to financial conditions and policy implementation.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ARS at the margin—slower growth can weigh on sentiment and fiscal/financing expectations, though FX dynamics remain primarily driven by policy credibility, inflation, and capital controls.

Turkey’s central government debt stock increased to TRY 13,325.0B in November (prior TRY 13,172.0B), indicating a further build-up in the public debt burden versus the previous month. The increase points to ongoing financing needs and keeps attention on rollover dynamics, funding costs, and the broader fiscal-monetary mix.

Market impact: Mildly negative for TRY at the margin—rising debt stock can reinforce fiscal risk premia and sensitivity to rates, though near-term FX pricing will still be dominated by CBRT policy credibility, inflation trajectory, and external financing conditions.

Brazil’s federal tax revenue increased to BRL 226.75B in October (prior BRL 216.73B), pointing to stronger government intake versus the previous reading. The higher collection can reflect firmer nominal activity and/or improved compliance, offering a marginally better backdrop for fiscal arithmetic at the margin.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL—stronger revenue can ease near-term fiscal stress perceptions, but sustained FX support will still depend on spending discipline, debt dynamics, and inflation/BCB policy expectations.

Mexico’s economic activity strengthened in October, with output up 1.70% y/y (expected 1.00%, prior 0.80%), pointing to a firmer growth backdrop versus both forecasts and the prior month. On a monthly basis, activity rose 1.00% m/m (expected 0.50%, prior -0.40%), signaling a sharp rebound in sequential momentum after September’s contraction.

Market impact: Supportive for MXN—stronger growth data can temper near-term Banxico easing expectations and improve carry appeal, though the peso will still track global risk sentiment and U.S. rates.