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Turkey’s end-year CPI forecast declined to 31.17% in December, down from the previous 32.20%. The downward revision signals improving inflation expectations, supported by tighter monetary policy earlier in the year and easing demand-side pressures.

Despite the improvement, inflation expectations remain elevated, underscoring the need for continued policy discipline.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for TRY; easing inflation expectations help stabilize sentiment but do not eliminate underlying risks.

Turkey recorded a current account surplus of $0.46B in October, slightly above expectations of $0.40B but lower than the $1.11B surplus seen previously. The moderation reflects softer external inflows and seasonal dynamics, even as the balance remains in positive territory.

Market impact: Neutral for TRY; the surplus supports external stability, but the narrower figure limits upside impact.

South Korea’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) edged down to 47.26 in December, from 47.49 previously. The marginal decline points to mildly weaker household confidence amid ongoing concerns around cost pressures and a cautious economic outlook.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for KRW; the modest dip in sentiment suggests subdued consumer momentum.

South Korea’s export price index rose 7.0% YoY in November, up sharply from 4.8% previously, reflecting higher global prices and improved pricing power for Korean exporters.

Meanwhile, the import price index increased 2.2% YoY, accelerating from 0.5%, pointing to rising input costs driven by energy prices and currency effects.

The divergence suggests improving external terms for exporters, though higher import costs may pressure margins for domestic producers.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for KRW; stronger export prices help offset rising import cost pressures.

Turkey’s gross FX reserves rose to $76.76B, up from $75.61B previously, reflecting continued accumulation by the central bank and improving external liquidity conditions.

Net FX reserves also strengthened, rising to 77.58%, compared with 72.12% earlier, indicating an improvement in the central bank’s underlying reserve buffer after months of volatility.

The rise in reserves is supportive of financial stability and may help temper pressure on the lira despite recent policy easing.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for TRY; stronger reserves enhance confidence in Turkey’s external position.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reduced its one-week repo rate to 38.00%, below expectations of 38.50% and down from 39.50%, signaling a shift toward easing after an extended tightening cycle.

The overnight borrowing rate was lowered to 36.50% from 38.00%, while the overnight lending rate fell to 41.00%, down from 42.50%.

The coordinated rate cuts reflect policymakers’ assessment that inflation has started to decelerate and that financial conditions are sufficiently restrictive. However, inflation remains high, leaving the policy path sensitive to incoming data.

Market impact: Slightly negative for TRY; rate cuts ease monetary conditions and may increase pressure on the currency.

Turkey’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) edged down to 34.9 in December, from 35.2 previously. The slight decline reflects continued pressure on household confidence amid elevated inflation, tighter financial conditions, and weakened purchasing power.

Market impact: Slightly negative for TRY; softer sentiment underscores ongoing strain on domestic demand.

Turkey’s retail sales rose 15.0% YoY in October, slightly above the previous 14.3%, reflecting continued strong annual consumer demand despite high inflationary pressures.

However, on a monthly basis, sales increased only 0.2% MoM, a steep slowdown from the prior 2.2%, signaling weakening short-term momentum as tighter financial conditions weigh on household spending.

Market impact: Neutral for TRY; strong yearly data is offset by a significant monthly deceleration, keeping sentiment balanced.

Brazil’s retail sector showed firmer momentum in October.

Retail sales rose 1.1% YoY, well above expectations of -0.5% and stronger than the previous 0.8%, signaling improved consumer spending conditions.

On a monthly basis, sales increased 0.5% MoM, reversing the prior -0.2% decline and outperforming forecasts for another contraction.

The improvement reflects resilient household demand supported by easing inflation and stabilizing labor-market conditions.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL; stronger retail data reinforces confidence in domestic economic activity.

South Africa’s manufacturing sector delivered a mixed performance in October.

On a monthly basis, manufacturing production rose 1.0% MoM, outperforming the prior 0.3% and signaling short-term momentum in factory activity.

However, annual growth slowed sharply, rising just 0.2% YoY, compared with 1.0% previously, reflecting persistent structural pressures on the sector—including weak demand, energy disruptions, and higher operating costs.

Market impact: Neutral for ZAR; monthly improvement is encouraging, but subdued annual growth keeps the broader outlook constrained.

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South Africa’s business confidence index surged to 132.3 in November, up from 121.1 previously, signaling a great improvement in corporate sentiment. The sharp increase reflects expectations of stabilizing economic conditions, firmer activity in key sectors, and easing supply-side pressures.

Market impact: Supportive for ZAR; rising confidence points to a more constructive outlook for investment and economic momentum.

South Africa’s mining industry recorded a solid expansion in October, with overall mining production rising 5.8% YoY, a sharp improvement from the previous 1.4% gain. The rebound reflects stronger output across key minerals and improved operational stability.

However, gold production fell 1.2% YoY, reversing the prior 5.9% increase, highlighting ongoing challenges in the gold sector, including declining grades and operational disruptions.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for ZAR; strong mining growth offsets weakness in gold output and points to improving industrial momentum.