EconoTicker

Brazil recorded a significant foreign exchange outflow of –$4.129 billion, a sharp deterioration from the previous –$1.219 billion. The larger outflow reflects weaker portfolio inflows, softer commodity revenues, and increased demand for foreign currency amid global risk aversion and domestic uncertainty.

The data underscores ongoing pressure on Brazil’s external accounts as investors turn cautious and capital flows remain volatile.

Market impact: Bearish for BRL; stronger outflows weaken currency support and highlight external vulnerability.

South Africa’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI inched up to 49.0 in November, improving from 48.8 previously. The modest rise signals stabilizing conditions in the factory sector, but the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating continued contraction amid weak demand, load-shedding disruptions, and persistent cost pressures.

Market impact: Neutral for ZAR; slight PMI improvement offers limited support as the sector remains in contraction.

Turkey’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of easing in November.

Annual PPI came in at 27.23%, slightly above expectations of 27.00% but broadly stable compared with recent months.

Monthly PPI increased 0.84%, softer than the previous 1.63%, indicating moderating cost pressures for manufacturers amid weaker domestic demand and easing energy prices.

While producer inflation remains high, the slowdown in monthly gains is a positive signal for future consumer inflation trends.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bullish for TRY; softer month-on-month PPI supports the broader disinflation narrative.

Turkey’s November inflation data showed a broad-based easing across headline and core measures.

The CPI (YoY) fell to 31.07%, well below expectations of 31.60% and sharply lower than the previous 32.87%, marking one of the strongest disinflation signals in months.

Month-on-month CPI rose 0.87%, also softer than expectations of 1.25% and far below the previous 2.55%, reflecting weaker food prices and more moderate consumer demand.

Core inflation (CPI Ex E, F, B, T & G):

• YoY: 31.6%, slightly below the previous 32.0%
• MoM: 1.2%, significantly lower than the previous 2.4%

The data suggest that tighter monetary policy and slowing domestic demand are beginning to ease price pressures across the Turkish economy.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for TRY; softer inflation strengthens confidence in the disinflation path and supports expectations for continued monetary discipline.

India’s services sector continued to show impressive momentum in November.

The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 59.8, beating expectations of 59.5 and improving from 58.9, signalling strong demand, robust new orders, and resilient business activity.

However, the Manufacturing & Services Composite PMI eased slightly to 59.70, below expectations of 59.90 and down from 60.40, indicating a modest cooling in overall private-sector growth—though still firmly in expansion territory.

The data underscores India’s position as one of the fastest-growing major economies, supported primarily by a strong services engine.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for INR; strong services activity supports growth sentiment, though slight composite slowdown tempers enthusiasm.

South Korea’s economy expanded solidly in the third quarter.

Quarter-on-quarter GDP grew 1.3%, beating expectations of 1.2% and accelerating from 0.7% previously, reflecting stronger exports, resilient consumption, and improved investment activity.

Year-on-year GDP rose 1.8%, slightly above expectations of 1.7%, and well above the prior 0.6%, signalling a meaningful pickup in annual growth.

Overall, the data highlight a firming recovery as easing inflation and stable external demand support South Korea’s economic outlook.

Market impact: Bullish for KRW; stronger-than-expected GDP reinforces confidence in economic momentum.

South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves increased to $430.66 billion in November, up from $428.82 billion previously. The rise reflects valuation gains and steady foreign asset inflows, helping the Bank of Korea maintain stability in currency markets during ongoing global volatility.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for KRW; higher reserves strengthen the country’s external buffer and support currency stability.

In terms of portfolio outflows, India is one of the worst-hit markets globally, with foreign investors’ net selling of its stocks amounting to nearly $17 billion so far this year.

The weakness in portfolio investment has also coincided with a slowdown in foreign direct investment, adding to the pressure.

Net foreign direct investment (FDI) turned negative for a second consecutive month in September, fuelled by a rise in outward FDI and repatriation of investments, the central bank, the Reserve Bank of India said in its November bulletin.

Brazil’s industrial sector showed clear signs of cooling in October. Industrial Production fell 0.5% year-on-year, missing expectations of 0.2% and dropping sharply from the previous 2.0%, marking a notable loss of momentum in factory output.

Monthly production inched up 0.1%, below expectations of 0.4%, and only a modest recovery from the prior –0.4% decline, highlighting fragile short-term activity.

The data underscores weakening domestic and external demand, alongside tighter financial conditions weighing on industrial growth.

Market impact: Bearish for BRL; softer production figures dampen growth outlook and investor sentiment.

South Africa’s economy expanded 0.5% on a quarterly annualised basis in Q3, below the previous 0.9%, signalling slower short-term momentum amid ongoing power constraints and weak industrial output.

However, GDP grew 2.1% year-on-year, a noticeable improvement from the prior 0.9%, reflecting recovery in services, agriculture, and select export sectors. The divergence shows that while near-term activity remains pressured, structural recovery is beginning to take shape on a yearly basis.

Market impact: Mixed for ZAR; softer quarterly growth weighs on sentiment, but stronger annual data provides some support.

Brazil’s IPC-Fipe inflation index rose 0.20% month-on-month in November, easing from the previous 0.27%. The moderation reflects softer price pressures in food and transportation, while household-related costs remain relatively contained. The slowdown supports expectations that Brazil’s disinflation trend is continuing, aligning with the central bank’s gradual easing cycle.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bullish for BRL; softer inflation reinforces the case for controlled monetary easing.

South Korea’s headline CPI remained unchanged at 2.4% year-on-year in November, matching the previous reading and suggesting stable inflation conditions. However, monthly CPI fell 0.2%, a sharper decline than expected (–0.3% expected but +0.3% previous), reflecting lower energy prices and softer food and goods demand.

The data indicate easing price pressures, supporting expectations that inflation will continue trending toward the Bank of Korea’s target in early 2024.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for KRW; softer monthly inflation reinforces expectations for a more dovish policy stance.