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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیIsrael’s economy staged a dramatic recovery in the fourth quarter, with annualised GDP surging 12.4%, a sharp reversal from the –4.3% contraction recorded previously.
The rebound reflects a pickup in consumption, investment, and exports following earlier disruptions tied to geopolitical tensions and domestic uncertainty.
While the headline surge is impressive, analysts caution that volatility remains high and that sustained momentum will depend on stabilisation in security conditions and continued policy support.
Market impact: Bullish for ILS and Israeli equities; strong GDP data boosts confidence, though sustainability remains a key question.
India’s foreign exchange reserves edged lower in the latest weekly data, slipping to $686.23B from $688.10B previously.
The modest decline reflects routine valuation adjustments and mild dollar demand, but overall reserve levels remain near record highs, providing a strong external buffer for the economy.
The RBI continues to maintain a stable FX environment as markets digest recent policy easing and shifting global rate expectations.
Market impact: Neutral for INR; reserves remain robust enough to limit currency volatility.
Mexican households turned more cautious in November, with sentiment indicators showing a clear pullback.
The decline reflects softer household expectations around income, economic conditions, and major purchases, signalling cooling consumer momentum heading into year-end.
Market impact: Mildly bearish for MXN; weaker confidence points to slower domestic demand.
Brazil’s wholesale-focused IGP-DI inflation index inched back into positive territory in November, rising 0.01% after a –0.03% decline in the previous month.
The small uptick reflects mild price pressures in industrial and agricultural components but remains broadly consistent with a low-inflation environment.
The index continues to show contained upstream inflation, supporting expectations that Brazil’s monetary easing cycle can proceed gradually.
Market impact: Neutral for BRL; inflation remains subdued, giving the central bank room to maintain its rate-cut path.
South Korea posted a much smaller current account surplus in October, signalling weaker external momentum.
The current account surplus narrowed to $6.81B, sharply lower than the prior $13.47B, reflecting softer export performance and higher import costs compared with the previous month’s unusually strong surplus.
While still positive, the steep decline highlights growing pressure on Korea’s trade-driven economy amid slowing global demand and currency volatility.
Market impact: Mildly bearish for KRW; a shrinking surplus reduces external support for the won.
South Africa’s foreign currency reserves saw a modest increase in November, signalling steady external stability.
The rise reflects valuation gains and stable inflows, offering some support to the rand amid global market volatility.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for ZAR; improving reserves strengthen external buffers.
Brazil’s economy expanded modestly in the third quarter, showing slower momentum but slightly outperforming forecasts.
GDP (YoY) grew 1.8%, above expectations of 1.7%, though lower than the 2.4% recorded previously, reflecting a cooling in annual growth.
On a quarterly basis, GDP (QoQ) rose 0.1%, missing the 0.2% forecast and easing from 0.3% in Q2, highlighting softer domestic activity and external demand.
Despite the slowdown, Brazil continues to show resilience supported by agriculture, services, and easing financial conditions.
Market impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for BRL; softer quarterly growth tempers sentiment despite beating yearly expectations.
Turkey’s foreign-exchange reserves saw a slight decline in the latest weekly data.
Gross FX reserves fell to $75.61B, down from $76.24B, indicating mild outflows or intervention-related adjustments.
Meanwhile, net FX reserves improved to 72.12%, up from 69.37%, reflecting stronger underlying reserve adequacy after accounting for liabilities and swaps.
The mixed data suggest the central bank continues to manage FX liquidity carefully amid fluctuating market conditions and external financing needs.
Market impact: Neutral to mildly bullish for TRY; stronger net reserves support sentiment, though softer gross reserves limit upside.
South Africa’s external position improved in the third quarter, with the current account deficit narrowing to –ZAR 57.0B, better than the previous –ZAR 72.2B.
As a share of GDP, the deficit also improved to –0.70%, compared with –1.00% earlier, reflecting stronger goods exports and a smaller shortfall in services and income flows.
The data suggest easing pressure on South Africa’s external balances, though the deficit remains a vulnerability amid global financing uncertainty.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for ZAR; a narrower current account deficit supports currency stability.
Turkey’s trade position weakened in November, with the Trade Ministry reporting a deficit of –$7.80B, larger than the previous –$7.40B.
Exports fell to $22.70B, down from $24.00B, reflecting softer external demand and continued pressure on Turkey’s export-oriented sectors.
The broader trade balance, also at –$7.80B, widened from –$7.58B, underscoring worsening monthly trade dynamics.
Market impact: Mildly bearish for TRY; weaker exports and a wider deficit increase external financing pressures.
Mexico’s investment contraction moderated in September.
Gross Fixed Investment (YoY) fell 6.70%, better than expectations of –7.70% and an improvement from the sharp –10.40% drop previously, suggesting that the investment downturn may be easing.
On a monthly basis, Gross Fixed Investment (MoM) declined 0.30%, also better than the expected 1.40% and above the prior –2.70%, indicating a slower pace of decline.
The data point to tentative stabilization in Mexico’s investment environment as construction and machinery spending show signs of bottoming out.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for MXN; slower contraction in investment supports hopes for a gradual economic recovery.
Brazil’s private-sector activity strengthened in November, led by a rebound in services.
The S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 49.6, up from 48.2, signaling a move closer to the expansion threshold as business conditions stabilize.
The Services PMI improved more decisively, rising to 50.1 from 47.7, marking a return to expansion territory driven by firmer demand and recovering new business inflows.
The data suggest that while the overall economy remains near stagnation, momentum is improving, particularly in the services sector.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for BRL; a return to expansion in services boosts confidence in Brazil’s short-term growth prospects.