EconoTicker

Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15.00%, in line with expectations. The decision reflects policymakers’ continued focus on stabilizing inflation and maintaining tight monetary conditions despite signs of gradual price moderation.

The hold suggests that the central bank remains cautious, waiting for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably easing before considering any policy adjustments.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; a fully expected decision with no immediate shift in monetary policy outlook.

Brazil’s seasonally adjusted IPCA inflation index rose 0.12% MoM in November, up from 0.07% previously. The modest uptick indicates mild firming in consumer price pressures, though inflation overall remains contained and consistent with the central bank’s gradual easing stance.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; slight acceleration is unlikely to alter expectations for steady, cautious monetary easing.

Brazil’s CPI rose 0.18% MoM in November, slightly below expectations of 0.20% but higher than the previous 0.09%, pointing to mild price pressures. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 4.46% YoY, just under the expected 4.49% and down from 4.68% previously, indicating a gradual softening of consumer price dynamics.

The data supports the view that inflation is cooling steadily, allowing the central bank to maintain its cautious easing cycle.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for BRL; softer inflation reinforces expectations for controlled monetary easing.

Turkey’s industrial production fell 0.8% MoM in October, marking another monthly contraction but improving from the deeper -2.1% decline previously. On an annual basis, output grew 2.2% YoY, though slower than the earlier 3.0%, indicating cooling momentum across manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors.

The data reflect softer domestic demand and tightening financial conditions as the government continues its disinflation-focused policy stance.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for TRY; slowing industrial activity reinforces concerns over Turkey’s economic rebalancing process.

South Korea’s unemployment rate rose slightly to 2.7% in November, up from 2.6% previously. The marginal increase suggests a stable labor market, though signs of cooling momentum are emerging as global demand softens and domestic hiring plans moderate.

Market impact: Neutral for KRW; minor uptick in unemployment is not expected to shift policy expectations significantly.

Argentina’s industrial production declined 2.9% YoY in October, a sharper contraction than the previous -0.5%, underscoring deteriorating conditions in the manufacturing sector. The decline reflects persistent macroeconomic instability, weak domestic demand, and ongoing cost pressures faced by producers.

Market impact: Negative for ARS; deeper industrial contraction reinforces concerns over Argentina’s economic outlook.

Mexico’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.40% MoM in November, up from the previous 0.30%, indicating slightly stronger cost pressures at the factory gate. However, annual PPI inflation eased to 2.40% YoY, down from 3.00%, showing that broader producer-level inflation continues to cool even as monthly pressures firm slightly.

Market impact: Neutral for MXN; mixed signals in producer inflation offer limited directional impact for monetary policy expectations.

Mexico’s inflation picked up in November, with headline CPI rising 0.66% MoM, above expectations of 0.56% and sharply higher than the previous 0.36%. Annual inflation climbed to 3.80% YoY, exceeding forecasts and moving further above the central bank’s 3% target.

Core inflation also surprised to the upside: core CPI rose 0.19% MoM, nearly double expectations, while annual core inflation increased to 4.43% YoY, up from 4.28% previously. The data highlights persistent underlying price pressures despite recent signs of stabilization.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for MXN; stronger-than-expected inflation may keep Banxico cautious and delay future rate cuts.

Israel’s budget balance improved significantly in November, with the deficit narrowing to ₪3 billion, compared with a much wider ₪15 billion deficit previously. The sharp improvement reflects stronger revenue collection and moderated spending pressures, offering a temporary easing of fiscal strain despite ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for ILS; a narrower deficit improves fiscal sentiment, though sustainability remains uncertain.

Brazil’s auto industry saw a significant setback in November, with auto production falling 11.6% MoM, reversing the prior 1.8% increase. Auto sales also dropped 8.5% MoM, a steep decline after last month’s strong 7.2% rise. The data signals weakening momentum in the sector as higher financing costs and softer consumer demand weigh on activity.

Market impact: Slightly negative for BRL; sharp declines in production and sales highlight cooling economic conditions.

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that the United States will permit exports of Nvidia’s H200 processors — the company’s second-most powerful artificial intelligence chips — to China. The sales will be subject to a 25% fee, marking a calibrated easing of export restrictions while still maintaining financial controls on advanced semiconductor shipments.

Market impact: Positive for Nvidia and tech sentiment; controlled access for China may support revenues while preserving U.S. oversight.

Turkey recorded a sharp improvement in its fiscal position in November, with the Treasury cash balance posting a ₺56.39B surplus, a major turnaround from the ₺195.97B deficit in the previous month.

The swing reflects stronger revenue collection and tighter spending controls, supported by seasonal tax inflows and improving financial discipline. While monthly figures can be volatile, the surplus provides short-term relief to government financing needs.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for TRY and Turkish bonds; a stronger fiscal balance supports investor confidence.