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India reported mixed but impactful macro data for October and Q2:

• Federal Fiscal Deficit (Oct): widened sharply to ₹8,251.44B, up from ₹5,731.23B, reflecting higher government spending ahead of year-end and uneven revenue inflows.
• GDP Growth (YoY, Q2): accelerated to 8.2%, beating expectations of 7.3% and improving from 7.8% previously. The strong print underscores robust domestic demand and resilient investment momentum.

The combination shows India’s economy expanding firmly even as fiscal pressures rise.

Market impact: Bullish for INR on strong GDP, but fiscal slippage tempers enthusiasm.

South Africa recorded a budget deficit of 35.83B rand in October, more than double the previous 15.36B rand shortfall.

The deterioration reflects higher government spending and weaker revenue collection, adding to fiscal concerns already weighing on the economy.

Market impact: Bearish for ZAR; widening fiscal deficits increase sovereign risk and pressure the currency.

India’s banking sector showed steady momentum, with bank loan growth rising to 11.4% from 11.3%, signaling continued credit demand across the economy.

Deposit growth also improved, increasing to 10.2% versus 9.7% previously, reflecting stronger liquidity inflows into the banking system.

However, foreign exchange reserves dipped to $688.10B, down from $692.58B, marking a slight drawdown amid ongoing RBI currency management and valuation effects.

Market impact: Neutral for INR; stronger credit metrics balanced by a mild decline in FX reserves.

South Africa’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed dynamics in October:

• PPI (MoM): -0.1%, unchanged from the prior month, indicating stable input cost pressures.
• PPI (YoY): rose to 2.9%, up from 2.3%, reflecting a pickup in annual producer inflation.

The data suggests that while short-term cost pressures remain contained, underlying inflation is gradually firming.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for ZAR; rising annual producer inflation may complicate policy flexibility for the South African Reserve Bank.

Turkey’s exports came in at $23.90B in October, slightly below expectations of $24.00B, though still higher than $22.60B a year earlier.

The trade balance posted a wider-than-expected deficit of $7.58B, compared with a forecast $7.40B and the previous $6.90B gap, reflecting stronger import demand relative to export growth.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for TRY; wider deficit signals ongoing external pressures.

Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index rose to 99.50 in November, up from 98.20 previously. The improvement reflects modest gains in consumer and business sentiment as inflation expectations stabilize and activity shows signs of resilience.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for TRY; improving sentiment signals steadier economic conditions.

A major CME Group outage on Friday halted trading across multiple markets, including FX, commodities, Treasuries, and stock futures, after a cooling failure at a CyrusOne data center disrupted operations.

CME said it was working to fix the issue in the “near term,” while brokers pulled several products as key benchmarks went offline. The exchange also confirmed that its EBS foreign exchange platform was halted due to a related technical problem.

CyrusOne, headquartered in Dallas, operates more than 55 data centers across the U.S., Europe and Japan.

Market impact: Moderate disruption risk; temporary outages can increase volatility once markets reopen.

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.50% in November, matching expectations and maintaining the same level as the previous meeting. The decision reflects policymakers’ continued focus on balancing sticky inflation with signs of softening domestic demand, while avoiding undue pressure on household debt and the Korean won.

Market impact: Neutral for KRW; the hold was fully expected, offering no major policy surprise.

Argentina’s retail sales rose 23.8% YoY in September, easing from 25.1% previously. The slowdown highlights softening consumer momentum amid persistent inflation pressures and weakening household purchasing power.

Market impact: Neutral for ARS; retail activity remains elevated in nominal terms but reflects cooling real consumption.

Brazil’s foreign exchange flows showed a slight net inflow of $0.020B, reversing the $1.219B outflow seen previously. The marginal improvement suggests more balanced currency flows into the local market, supported by steadier trade activity and moderated capital outflows.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; small inflow signals stabilizing FX conditions but no significant shift in sentiment.

Brazil’s Mid-Month CPI showed a slight firming in November:

• Mid-Month CPI (MoM): rose 0.20%, slightly above expectations of 0.18%, and matching the previous month’s 0.18% pace.
• Mid-Month CPI (YoY): came in at 4.50%, marginally above the expected 4.49%, but easing from 4.94% previously.

The data indicate that while inflation is stabilizing, underlying price pressures remain contained, supporting the view that Brazil’s rate-cut cycle can proceed gradually.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; inflation remains aligned with central bank expectations.

Brazil’s bank lending (MoM) rose 0.9% in October, easing from 1.1% previously. The slowdown reflects slightly softer credit expansion, suggesting moderating demand for loans amid higher borrowing costs and cautious consumer sentiment.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; lending growth remains steady but shows signs of cooling.