EconoTicker

South Africa’s retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in September, accelerating from the prior 2.2%. The improvement reflects firmer consumer spending momentum despite ongoing pressures from high inflation, elevated borrowing costs, and weak overall economic growth.

Market impact: Mildly positive for ZAR; stronger retail activity supports near-term confidence in domestic demand.

South Africa’s inflation data for October showed mild price pressures. Core CPI rose 0.1% MoM, below the prior 0.3%, while annual core inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.2%, reinforcing a softer underlying trend.

Headline CPI increased 0.1% MoM, slightly below the previous 0.2%, while annual CPI edged up to 3.6%, compared with 3.4% earlier. The small uptick was largely driven by food and administered-price categories.

Overall, the data continues to point to contained inflationary pressures, offering the South African Reserve Bank room to maintain its cautious stance.

Market impact: Neutral for ZAR; mixed but generally soft inflation signals limited change in policy expectations.

Argentina recorded a budget surplus of ARS 824 million in October, up from ARS 697 million previously. The improvement reflects tighter fiscal management and stronger revenue performance, even as broader economic conditions remain challenging.

Market impact: Mildly positive for ARS; a stronger fiscal balance supports confidence in short-term government financing.

Israel’s labor market remained stable in October, with the quarterly unemployment rate unchanged at 3.0%. The data reflects continued tightness in the job market, despite broader economic volatility, suggesting resilient employment conditions.

Market impact: Neutral for ILS; steady unemployment underscores labor-market stability.

India’s trade deficit widened significantly in October to $41.68B, far above the previous $29.40B and well above the earlier $32.15B level. Exports fell to $34.38B from $36.38B, while imports jumped to $76.06B from $68.53B, reflecting stronger demand for energy and capital goods. The sharp deterioration highlights renewed pressure on India’s external balances.

Market impact: Mildly negative for INR; wider deficit raises concerns over import-driven FX pressure.

Turkey’s budget balance improved in October, posting a deficit of TRY 223.2B, significantly smaller than the previous month’s TRY 309.6B shortfall. The data signals a notable month-on-month fiscal recovery, though overall budget pressures remain elevated amid high spending and ongoing economic adjustments.

Market impact: Mildly positive for TRY; narrowing deficit supports sentiment but broader fiscal challenges persist.

South Korea recorded a solid trade surplus in November, posting $6.00B, only slightly below the previous $6.06B. October exports rose 3.5% YoY, just under the prior 3.6%, while imports fell 1.5%, matching the previous decline. The data reflects steady external momentum driven by tech shipments, although export growth shows mild signs of cooling.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for KRW; stable trade surplus supports sentiment but softer export growth limits upside.

Israel’s economy posted a sharp rebound in the third quarter, with annualized GDP surging 12.4% after a steep 4.3% contraction previously. October trade data showed exports rising to $4.66 billion from $4.41 billion, while imports eased slightly to $7.44 billion from $7.87 billion. As a result, the trade deficit narrowed to $2.78 billion, compared with $3.46 billion a month earlier — signaling a mild improvement in external balances.

Market impact: Positive for ILS in the short term; stronger GDP and narrowing deficit support investor sentiment.

Israel’s consumer price index (CPI) increased 2.5% year-on-year in October, slightly above expectations of 2.4% and matching the prior reading. Monthly CPI rose 0.5%, a sharp rebound from the 0.6% decline seen previously, driven by higher housing, food, and transportation costs.

The pickup in monthly inflation suggests renewed price pressures despite a still-moderate annual rate.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ILS; stronger monthly inflation may delay policy easing and raise concerns over near-term price stability.

India’s bank loan growth eased to 11.3%, down from 11.5%, indicating a mild cooling in credit demand after months of strong expansion. Deposit growth rose 9.7%, slightly higher than 9.5% previously, suggesting improving liquidity in the banking system.

India’s foreign exchange reserves edged down to $687.03 billion from $689.73 billion, though still near record-high levels, reflecting stable external conditions.

Market impact: Neutral for INR; steady credit and deposit trends combined with resilient FX reserves signal continued macro stability.

Brazil’s IGP-10 inflation index rose 0.2% month-on-month in November, up from 0.1% previously. The slight acceleration reflects higher prices in agricultural and industrial components, though overall inflation pressures remain contained compared with earlier in the year.

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; the mild uptick does not significantly alter the inflation trajectory or expectations for monetary policy.