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Argentina’s November data pointed to a sharper slowdown in real activity and household financing. Industrial production fell -8.7% y/y (prior -2.8%), signaling a deepening contraction in the industrial sector. At the same time, consumer credit dropped to 4.23B (10.10B expected, 9.24B prior), a major downside surprise that suggests tighter financial conditions and weaker credit impulse for consumption.

Market impact: Negative for Argentina’s growth outlook—deeper industrial contraction and weaker consumer credit typically increase recession risk and can keep pressure on local assets. For ARS, the near-term effect depends heavily on FX controls, policy credibility, and external financing dynamics rather than these prints alone.

Brazil’s industrial sector lost momentum in November. Industrial production was flat at 0.0% m/m (0.2% expected, 0.1% prior), while output fell -1.2% y/y (-0.1% expected, -0.5% prior), a clear downside surprise that signals a deeper contraction on an annual basis. The print suggests Brazil’s growth mix is becoming more uneven, with industry lagging even if services remain more resilient.

Market impact: Mildly negative for BRL at the margin and supportive for local bonds—softer activity can reinforce a slower-growth narrative and strengthen the case for a more accommodative policy bias if inflation allows, though BRL remains heavily influenced by commodities and fiscal headlines.

Mexico’s December inflation data came in softer than expected, reinforcing a gradual disinflation narrative. Headline CPI rose 0.28% m/m (0.40% expected, 0.66% prior) and slowed to 3.69% y/y (3.80% expected, 3.80% prior). Core inflation was only slightly below forecasts: core CPI rose 0.41% m/m (0.42% expected, 0.19% prior) while core CPI eased to 4.33% y/y (4.34% expected, 4.43% prior). Producer prices were mixed but broadly benign: PPI increased 0.50% m/m (prior 0.40%) while PPI eased to 2.10% y/y (prior 2.40%).

Market impact: Mildly supportive for Mexican bonds and slightly MXN-negative at the margin—softer inflation can strengthen the case for a more accommodative Banxico path, though peso direction remains heavily driven by global risk sentiment and rate differentials.

Turkey’s reserve position weakened while the fiscal cash position deteriorated sharply in December. Gross FX reserves fell to $74.56B (from $76.98B), and net FX reserves dropped to 76.89% (from 79.77%), indicating a modest erosion in buffers. The bigger headline was the fiscal swing: the Treasury cash balance printed a -₺333.150B deficit versus a +₺56.200B surplus previously, implying a significant year-end cash outflow—consistent with seasonal spending, debt-service timing, and/or one-off transfers.

Market impact: Mildly negative for TRY at the margin—lower reserves plus a sharp cash deficit can raise sensitivity to funding and policy credibility. Local rates and FX will remain highly reactive to CBRT communication, inflation trajectory, and any signs of renewed reserve drawdown or FX-market intervention.

South Africa’s manufacturing output contracted in November, reinforcing the downbeat signal from recent PMI readings. Manufacturing production fell -1.1% m/m (prior +1.0%) and -1.0% y/y (+0.2% expected, +0.4% prior), a clear downside surprise that points to weakening industrial momentum into year-end.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ZAR at the margin and supportive for local bonds—softer production data strengthens the soft-growth narrative and can heighten sensitivity to fiscal and external-balance headlines, although the rand remains primarily driven by global risk appetite and commodity prices.

Brazil’s IGP-DI inflation index rose 0.10% m/m in December, up from 0.01% previously, indicating a mild firming in wholesale/producer-linked price pressures at the margin. The move is small in absolute terms, but it signals inflation impulses in the IGP complex are not fading further into year-end.

Market impact: Largely neutral for BRL—a modest upside in IGP-DI alone is unlikely to shift policy expectations materially. Local rates and FX will remain more sensitive to broader inflation measures, fiscal headlines, and global risk/commodities.

South Africa’s manufacturing conditions weakened further in December. The Manufacturing PMI fell to 40.5 (prior 42.0), moving deeper into contraction territory and indicating a sharper deterioration in factory activity into year-end. A reading this low typically aligns with falling output and orders, and highlights ongoing headwinds for industrial momentum.

Market impact: Mildly negative for ZAR at the margin and supportive for local bonds—softer activity can reinforce a weaker growth narrative and increase sensitivity to fiscal and external-financing risks, though the rand will still be driven primarily by global risk appetite and commodity moves.

South Africa’s external buffers improved in December. Gross foreign reserves increased to $75.89B (from $72.07B), while net FX reserves rose to $71.144B (from $70.024B). The higher reserve levels suggest a stronger liquidity cushion against external shocks, reflecting valuation effects and/or improved inflows.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for ZAR at the margin—stronger reserves can reduce near-term vulnerability. That said, rand direction remains more sensitive to global risk appetite, commodity prices, and local policy/fiscal headlines than to a single reserves print.

Brazil’s foreign-exchange flow data showed continued net outflows, but the pace improved. FX flows came in at -$4.127B, compared with -$5.047B previously, indicating capital/FX demand pressures remain, though slightly less intense than the prior reading.

Market impact: Mildly negative for BRL at the margin—ongoing net outflows can keep the currency vulnerable, especially if global risk appetite softens. The smaller deficit is a modest positive, but BRL direction will still be dominated by commodities, domestic fiscal headlines, and local rate expectations.

South Africa’s auto market showed stronger year-on-year momentum in December. Total vehicle sales rose 19.2% y/y (prior 12.5%), signaling firmer demand versus a year earlier. In level terms, 48.98K vehicles were sold in December (prior 54.90K), indicating the monthly count was lower than the previous month—likely reflecting typical seasonal patterns and year-end timing effects even as annual growth improved.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for South Africa’s domestic-demand narrative and consumer-linked equities, but limited direct impact on ZAR, which remains more sensitive to global risk appetite, commodity prices, and local rates/fiscal headlines.

Israel’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $229.484B in December from $231.425B previously, marking a modest decline in headline buffers. The move could reflect valuation effects and/or intervention and liquidity operations, but reserves remain substantial in level terms.

Market impact: Largely neutral for ILS—reserve levels are a secondary driver versus the dominant catalysts of geopolitical risk, domestic financial conditions, and Bank of Israel policy expectations. A sustained downtrend would matter more than a single monthly dip.

Brazil’s trade balance posted a larger-than-expected surplus in November, coming in at $9.63B ($6.39B expected, $6.65B prior). The stronger surplus suggests net exports provided more support to the external account than markets anticipated—either via firmer exports, softer imports, or both—helping underpin Brazil’s balance-of-payments backdrop into year-end.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for BRL at the margin—an improved trade surplus strengthens external fundamentals and can reduce near-term FX vulnerability. However, BRL direction remains more sensitive to global risk appetite, commodities, and domestic fiscal/policy headlines than to a single trade print.