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SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 carrying the classified NROL-105 mission for the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) from Vandenberg Space Force Base (SLC-4E) on Jan. 16, 2026, deploying an undisclosed number of reconnaissance satellites into low Earth orbit. The payload is widely believed to support the NRO’s “proliferated architecture” (often linked to Starshield, SpaceX’s government-focused offering built on Starlink-derived technology), designed to improve coverage, resilience, and revisit rates through large numbers of smaller satellites. The first-stage booster B1100 returned to land at Landing Zone 4 about 7.5 minutes after liftoff.

Market impact: Reinforces strong U.S. national-security demand for rapid-launch capacity and LEO reconnaissance networks—supportive for the listed defense/space supply chain (launch services, payload manufacturing, satellite components) and a constructive signal for contract momentum in the broader space economy.

Brazil’s November data sent a clear pro-growth signal while upstream inflation remained soft. The IBC-Br economic activity index rose 0.70% m/m (0.30% expected, -0.20% prior), a strong upside surprise that points to firmer momentum in the real economy. Meanwhile, Brazilian PPI remained in deflation, falling -0.37% m/m (vs -0.47% prior), indicating producer-price pressures are still negative even as activity improves.

Market impact: The mix is broadly BRL- and risk-supportive (stronger growth), while still bond-friendly at the margin given negative PPI. For policy expectations, stronger activity can temper aggressive easing bets, but soft pipeline inflation helps keep the disinflation narrative intact.

Brazil’s IGP-10 inflation index rose 0.3% m/m in January, up from 0.0% previously, signaling a modest re-acceleration in wholesale/producer-linked price pressures. As IGP measures are more sensitive to commodities and FX, the pickup can reflect firmer input costs even if consumer inflation remains more stable—making it a useful “pipeline” signal rather than a direct read on household prices.

Market impact: Mildly BRL-supportive if it reinforces a higher inflation floor, but rates-bearish at the margin as it can temper expectations for aggressive easing. The broader reaction will depend on whether CPI measures confirm the move and whether it’s driven by tradables/FX or domestic pricing.

Turkey’s end-of-year CPI forecast fell sharply in January to 23.23%, down from 31.17% previously. The move signals a meaningful improvement in inflation expectations—either reflecting a better disinflation outlook, tighter financial conditions, and/or reduced FX pass-through concerns—though expectations can remain volatile and highly sensitive to currency dynamics and administered prices.

Market impact: Mildly TRY-supportive and bond-positive at the margin, as falling inflation expectations can lower required risk premia. For policy, a sustained downtrend in expectations strengthens the case for keeping a restrictive stance long enough to lock in disinflation, but credibility will still be judged by realized inflation prints and FX stability.

South Korea’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI declined to 44.81 in January from 47.26, signaling a notable deterioration in consumer sentiment at the start of the year. The level remains well below 50, consistent with households staying cautious—often a headwind for discretionary spending—especially amid currency weakness, higher living-cost sensitivity, and growth uncertainty.

Market impact: Mildly KRW-negative at the margin and a potential drag for domestic-demand equities if sentiment weakness persists. For rates, softer sentiment can support a more dovish bias over time, though the BoK’s near-term focus may remain on financial stability and FX conditions.

Brazil’s December auto data sent a mixed signal: auto production fell 15.8% m/m (vs -11.6% prior), while auto sales jumped 17.1% m/m (rebounding from -8.5% previously). The gap suggests a demand-side rebound at year-end, even as output lagged—potentially reflecting inventory drawdowns, supply-chain/holiday effects, or manufacturers calibrating production amid still-uneven domestic conditions.

Market impact: Mildly BRL-supportive at the margin via stronger domestic demand (sales), but the production slump is a near-term growth offset. For equities, it’s supportive for dealers/consumer cyclicals, while industrial/auto manufacturing sentiment may stay more cautious until production stabilizes.

Brazil’s November retail sales surprised to the upside, pointing to firmer household demand. Retail sales rose 1.0% m/m (0.3% expected, 0.5% prior) and 1.3% y/y (0.2% expected, 0.9% prior), indicating consumption momentum improved both sequentially and versus last year. The beat fits with a broader stabilization in consumer conditions—helped by sentiment gains and easing inflation stress—though durability will depend on credit conditions and real wage trends.

Market impact: Mildly BRL-supportive and constructive for Brazil domestic cyclicals (retailers, banks) if follow-through data confirm strength. For rates, stronger activity can be mildly DI-bearish at the margin by reducing urgency for aggressive easing.

South Africa’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI improved to 49.27 in January from 47.78, signaling a firmer consumer mood at the start of the year. While the index remains just below the 50 mark—implying households are still cautious—the rebound suggests easing pressure on confidence, potentially helped by better inflation expectations, real-income perceptions, or improved near-term outlook.

Market impact: Mildly ZAR-supportive at the margin and constructive for domestically exposed equities if sentiment translates into spending. Standalone impact is usually limited, but sustained improvement can reinforce a “stabilizing demand” narrative alongside retail and inflation data.

The Bank of Korea kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.50% in January (in line, unchanged from 2.50%). With the won under pressure and financial-stability concerns elevated, the steady decision reinforces a “hold longer” stance—suggesting policymakers are prioritizing currency and stability risks over near-term growth support.

Market impact: Mildly KRW-supportive (less easing risk), bond-bearish at the margin (cuts priced out), and potentially a headwind for rate-sensitive domestic equities if the hold extends.

South Korea’s December trade data remained strong, led by exports. Exports rose 13.3% YoY (vs 13.4% expected, 8.4% prior), while imports increased 4.6% YoY (in line, vs 1.1% prior). The trade surplus printed $12.17B (vs $12.18B expected, $9.74B prior), underscoring continued external support for growth, likely tied to the semiconductor cycle and resilient regional demand.

Market impact: Modestly KRW-supportive and constructive for Korean risk assets, especially exporters. However, FX follow-through can be capped if global risk sentiment deteriorates or if domestic rates policy stays stability-focused amid won weakness.

South Korea’s central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.50% and signaled an end to the current easing cycle, prioritizing financial stability as the won hovered near multi-year lows. Governor Rhee Chang-yong said FX conditions were “an important factor” behind the decision, noting recent stabilization steps briefly strengthened the won but the currency has weakened again—prompting the BoK to stay on alert amid geopolitical risk and fund outflows.

Market impact: KRW-supportive at the margin (less near-term cut risk), bond-bearish (reduced easing expectations), and potentially a headwind for rate-sensitive domestic equities if the “stability-first” stance persists.

Brazil reported foreign exchange flows of -$1.696B, still negative but a clear improvement from the prior -$4.127B outflow. The smaller drain suggests reduced capital leakage in the latest period—potentially reflecting better risk sentiment, improved carry appeal, or less corporate/seasonal demand for dollars—though flows remain a key watchpoint for BRL stability.

Market impact: Mildly BRL-supportive at the margin versus last week, given the smaller outflow, but still a caution flag. If outflows persist, BRL upside can be capped despite strong carry; a turn to inflows would be a more durable bullish signal.