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• Core PPI (YoY, Aug): +2.8%, below expectations (+3.5%) and July’s +3.4%, signaling easing underlying pressures.
• Core PPI (MoM, Aug): -0.1%, vs. +0.3% expected and +0.7% prior.
• Headline PPI (YoY, Aug): +2.6%, softer than +3.3% expected and +3.1% in July.
• Headline PPI (MoM, Aug): -0.1%, vs. +0.3% expected and +0.7% prior.
• PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY, Aug): +2.8%, up slightly from +2.7%.
• PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM, Aug): +0.3%, easing from +0.6% in July.

Market impact: Negative for USD, as broad softness in producer prices reinforces Fed easing expectations.

Historical context: August marks the first monthly decline in both headline and core PPI since 2023, underscoring cooling input costs and weaker industrial demand.

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.49%, down from 6.64%, the lowest in three months.

MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): +9.2%, reversing the prior week’s -1.2%, signaling strong pickup in housing demand.

MBA Purchase Index: 169.1, up from 158.7.

Mortgage Market Index: 297.7, rising from 272.5.

Mortgage Refinance Index: 1,012.4, up from 902.5, showing renewed refinancing activity.

Market impact: Positive for housing-related equities; neutral for USD. Lower rates are spurring demand but may also reinforce expectations of Fed easing.

Historical context: The strongest weekly rebound in mortgage activity since mid-2023, suggesting rate-sensitive housing demand is quick to respond to easing borrowing costs.

3-Year Note Auction: 3.49%, down from 3.67% previously, reflecting stronger investor demand for medium-term U.S. debt.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD yields, as softer auction rates align with expectations of Fed easing.

Historical context: The yield marks the lowest level since mid-2023, highlighting a shift from peak rate concerns toward a softer interest-rate environment.

Payrolls Benchmark, n.s.a. (Aug): -911K, a deeper contraction than last year’s -598K, highlighting a softer seasonal labor adjustment.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as the larger-than-usual job drop reinforces concerns of cooling momentum in the U.S. labor market.

Historical context: August payroll benchmarks typically show seasonal declines, but 2025’s drop is among the steepest in the past decade, underscoring fragility in hiring dynamics.

Redbook Retail Sales (YoY): +6.6%, slightly above the prior week’s +6.5%, reflecting steady momentum in chain-store sales.

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as retail activity shows resilience but does not materially shift Fed policy expectations.

Historical context: Annual growth has hovered around 6–7% since mid-2024, signaling consistent consumer spending despite tighter financial conditions.

NFIB Small Business Optimism (Aug): 100.8, slightly above expectations (100.5) and July’s 100.3, showing modest gains in sentiment among small firms.

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for USD, as steady small-business confidence signals resilience in hiring and investment plans.

Historical context: The index remains above the 100-threshold for a third consecutive month, its longest stretch since early 2022, highlighting gradual recovery in business sentiment.

Consumer Credit (Jul): $16.0B, well above expectations ($10.4B) and June’s $9.6B, reflecting stronger borrowing in both revolving and non-revolving categories.

Market impact: Slightly supportive for USD, as resilient credit growth signals ongoing consumer spending power despite higher rates.

Historical context: July marks the fastest pace of credit expansion since early 2024, easing concerns of a sharp slowdown in household demand.

3-Month Bill Auction: 3.94%, down from 4.05% previously, reflecting softer short-term funding costs.

6-Month Bill Auction: 3.73%, easing from 3.88%, showing continued demand for mid-term maturities.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD yields, as lower bill rates suggest firm demand for Treasuries amid expectations of Fed policy easing.

Historical context: Both auctions mark the lowest yield levels since early 2024, highlighting a broader shift from peak rate concerns to easing expectations.

CB Employment Trends Index (Aug): 106.41, down from 107.13 in July, signaling a gradual cooling in labor-market momentum.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as softer labor indicators add to expectations of Fed easing later this year.

Historical context: The index has trended lower since mid-2024, reflecting slower job creation and rising signs of fatigue in the U.S. labor market.

• Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug): +22K, far below expectations (+75K) and July (+79K), marking the weakest job creation in years.
• Private Payrolls: +38K, also well under forecasts (+75K) and July (+77K).
• Government Payrolls: -16K, reversing July’s +2K, dragging headline jobs lower.
• Manufacturing Payrolls: -12K, weaker than expected (-5K) and July (-2K).
• Unemployment Rate: 4.3%, in line with forecasts but up from July’s 4.2%.
• U6 Unemployment: 8.1%, higher than July’s 7.9%, showing broader labor market weakness.
• Participation Rate: 62.3%, slightly above July’s 62.2%, hinting at modest labor supply gains.
• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): +0.3%, steady vs. forecasts and July.
• Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): +3.7%, unchanged from estimates but easing from July’s +3.9%.
• Average Weekly Hours: 34.2, steady vs. July.

Market impact: Negative for USD and yields — very weak job creation and rising broader unemployment bolster the case for Fed rate cuts. Stable wage growth prevents a sharper dovish swing, but inflationary risks look contained.

Historical context: The +22K headline payroll gain is the weakest since the 2020 pandemic disruptions and far below the 12-month average (~+150K). The 4.3% unemployment rate is the highest since October 2021, signaling clear labor market cooling.

• 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.175%, down from the prior 4.245%, signaling slightly lower short-term borrowing costs.
• 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.100%, also below the previous 4.145%, reflecting softer demand for yield at the front end of the curve.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as easing yields suggest investors are comfortable with lower returns, aligning with softer Fed rate expectations.

Historical context: Both yields are near their 12-month averages (4W ~4.20%, 8W ~4.15%) and remain well below last year’s peaks above 5%, underscoring the shift toward a lower-rate environment.

• S&P Global Services PMI (Aug): 54.5, below expectations (55.4) and July (55.7), signaling slower but still solid expansion.
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Aug): 54.6, also under forecasts (55.4) and July (55.1), pointing to steady overall growth.

Market impact: Neutral-to-slightly negative for USD — activity remains firmly in expansion, but softer prints may temper bullish sentiment.

Historical context: Both PMIs remain well above the 12-month averages (~53.0), underscoring resilience in US services and overall business activity despite a slight cooling from July peaks.