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• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 52.0, above expectations (50.9) and July (50.1), marking a stronger expansion.
• Business Activity: 55.0, up sharply from 52.6, signaling robust demand.
• New Orders: 56.0, a strong rebound from 50.3, showing renewed growth momentum.
• Employment: 46.5, slightly below forecasts (46.7) but steady vs. July (46.4), pointing to continued labor softness.
• Prices: 69.2, just under July (69.9) and expectations (69.5), keeping inflation pressures elevated.

Market impact: Positive for USD and US equities, as stronger demand and orders confirm services resilience, though sticky prices may keep Fed cautious.

Historical context: The 52.0 PMI is the highest since mid-2023 and above the 12-month average (~51.0), confirming steady services-led growth despite weak hiring.

• Exports (Jul): $280.5B, slightly higher than June’s $277.3B, showing modest external demand.
• Imports (Jul): $358.8B, up strongly from June’s $337.5B, reflecting firm domestic demand.
• Trade Balance (Jul): -78.3B, wider than expectations (-77.7B) and June’s -59.1B, marking the largest deficit since late 2022.

Market impact: Negative for USD, as a widening trade gap signals weaker net exports’ contribution to GDP. Supportive for global risk sentiment given strong US import demand.

Historical context: The -78.3B deficit is well above the 12-month average (~-67B) and near the widest levels since 2022, underscoring the ongoing structural trade imbalance in the US.

• Challenger Job Cuts (YoY): +13.3%, sharply down from July’s +139.8%, signaling fewer announced layoffs.
• Challenger Job Cuts (Aug): 85.98K, higher than July’s 62.08K, showing layoffs remain elevated in absolute terms.
• ADP Nonfarm Employment (Aug): +54K, well below expectations (+73K) and July (+106K), pointing to cooling private payroll growth.
• Initial Jobless Claims: 237K, slightly above forecasts (230K) and July’s 229K, showing mild labor market softening.
• Continuing Claims: 1.94M, steady vs. 1.96M forecast and 1.944M prior.
• 4-Week Avg. Claims: 231K, modestly above last week’s 228.5K.
• Nonfarm Productivity (Q2): +3.3%, above expectations (+2.8%) and Q1 (+2.4%).
• Unit Labor Costs (Q2): +1.0%, lower than forecast (+1.2%) and Q1 (+1.6%).

Market impact: Mixed — softer ADP hiring and higher jobless claims weigh on USD, while strong productivity and easing labor costs support disinflation and could reinforce dovish Fed expectations.

Historical context: The +3.3% productivity growth is the strongest since mid-2020, while +1.0% labor cost growth is the lowest in two years. Jobless claims remain historically low (<250K), but hiring momentum clearly slowed from 2023 peaks.

The US JOLTS Job Openings (Jul) fell to 7.181M, below expectations (7.380M) and June’s 7.357M, marking a continued cooling in labor demand.

Market impact: Negative for USD, as softening job openings support a more dovish Fed outlook and weigh on yields.

Historical context: The 7.18M figure is the lowest since early 2021 and below the 12-month average (~8.2M), confirming a clear downtrend in labor market tightness.

• Factory Orders (MoM, Jul): -1.3%, matching expectations and easing from June’s steep -4.8% drop.
• Factory Orders ex-Transportation (MoM, Jul): +0.6%, better than forecasts (+0.4%) and stronger than June, showing resilience outside the volatile transport sector.

Market impact: Neutral-to-positive for USD — headline weakness reflects transport volatility, but firm core orders support business investment outlook.

Historical context: The +0.6% core orders is above the 12-month average (~+0.3%), marking the strongest since early 2024, while the headline decline is much softer than June’s sharp fall, signaling stabilization.

• Durables Excluding Defense (MoM, Jul): -2.5%, matching expectations and unchanged from June’s -2.5%, showing continued weakness in defense-related orders.
• Durables Excluding Transport (MoM, Jul): +1.0%, just below the initial estimates of +1.1%, highlighting resilient core demand despite transport volatility.

Market impact: Neutral for USD — headline weakness limits optimism, but firm core orders suggest underlying business investment is holding up.

Historical context: The +1.0% core durables growth is slightly above the 12-month average (~+0.8%), showing steady demand, while the defense-driven decline keeps headline figures volatile.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.64%, slightly lower than last week (6.69%), but still elevated.
• Mortgage Applications (WoW): -1.2%, a deeper decline vs. -0.5% prior.
• Purchase Index: 158.7, down from 163.8.
• Mortgage Market Index: 272.5, lower than 275.8.
• Refinance Index: 902.5, slightly up from 894.1, as some borrowers take advantage of marginally lower rates.

Market impact: Negative for USD and US housing sentiment — elevated borrowing costs continue to weigh on demand, despite a small pickup in refinancing.

Historical context: The 6.64% mortgage rate remains near its 12-month average (~6.7%), while the Purchase Index is trending at multi-year lows, reflecting persistent affordability pressures in the housing market.

The US Redbook Retail Sales (YoY) grew +6.5%, unchanged from the previous reading. The data shows stable momentum in consumer spending.

Market impact: Neutral for USD and equities; steady retail activity suggests household demand remains firm but shows no acceleration.

Historical context: The +6.5% growth is slightly above the 12-month average (~+6.2%), indicating resilience in consumer spending despite tighter financial conditions.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate (Q3) was revised down to 3.0%, below both the prior forecast (3.5%) and market consensus (3.5%). The adjustment reflects softer-than-expected incoming data.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as cooling growth expectations may reinforce dovish Fed sentiment.

Historical context: The 3.0% estimate remains above the US 10-year average growth rate (~2.1%), but the downgrade marks the second consecutive downward revision this quarter, signaling momentum is easing from earlier strength.

• 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.045%, lower than the prior 4.100%.
• 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.880%, down from 3.915%.
• 52-Week Bill Auction: 3.660%, also lower than the previous 3.760%.

Broad declines reflect easing short-term funding costs as market expectations for Fed policy tilt dovish.

Market impact: Negative for USD, supportive for equities and bonds, as falling bill yields signal softer rate expectations.

Historical context: Current levels remain below the 12-month averages (3M ~4.3%, 6M ~4.1%, 1Y ~3.9%), marking a steady decline in yields since mid-2024 as rate cut bets strengthen.

The US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Sep) dropped to 48.7, well below expectations (51.8) and August’s 50.9, slipping into pessimistic territory (<50).

Market impact: Negative for USD and equities, as weakening sentiment signals consumer caution ahead of the fall season.

Historical context: The 48.7 print is the lowest since late 2023 and below the 12-month average of ~50.5, highlighting renewed concerns about growth momentum and inflation pressures.

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug): 48.7, below 50 and expectations (49.0), up from 48.0 → continued contraction.
• Employment Index: 43.8, weaker than forecast (45.0) but slightly above July (43.4) → labor market strain persists.
• New Orders Index: 51.4, well above expectations (48.0) and July (47.1) → first expansion in demand in months.
• Prices Index: 63.7, lower than forecast (65.1) and July (64.8) → input cost pressures easing slightly.

Market impact: Mixed for USD — headline PMI contraction is negative, but stronger new orders provide a silver lining. Bond yields may soften on weaker headlines, while equities could find support from improving demand and softer prices.

Historical context: The 48.7 PMI marks the 5th straight sub-50 reading, with the 12-month average near 48.5. The New Orders jump to 51.4 is the highest since mid-2022, suggesting demand conditions may finally be stabilizing.