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The US Construction Spending (MoM, Jul) fell -0.1%, matching expectations and improving from June’s steeper decline (-0.4%). The data shows a modest slowdown but signals ongoing weakness in construction activity.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; while the decline is smaller than the prior month, persistent softness in construction may weigh on growth momentum.

Historical context: The -0.1% reading is below the 12-month average of ~+0.3%, marking the second straight monthly drop, which highlights a soft patch in the sector after a stronger H1.

The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug) came in at 53.0, just below expectations (53.3) but well above July’s 49.8, confirming a solid return to expansion.

Market impact: Supportive for USD and US equities, as factory activity shows resilience, though the small miss may temper hawkish bets on the Fed.

Historical context: At 53.0, PMI is well above the 12-month average (~50.5) and marks the strongest reading since mid-2022, underlining robust recovery momentum in the manufacturing sector.

Michigan survey data for August painted a mixed picture: the Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 58.2 from 61.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index fell to 55.9, signaling softer optimism about the year ahead. On the other hand, respondents judged Current Conditions a touch stronger at 61.7, surpassing the consensus. Inflation expectations were uneven — the 1-year outlook eased slightly to 4.8%, but the 5-year expectation rose to 3.5%, suggesting shorter-run price concerns have moderated a touch even as longer-run anchoring remains a little firmer. Overall, households appear less upbeat about prospects while still seeing the present economy as relatively stable.

What it is (short):

The University of Michigan survey gauges household sentiment, near- and medium-term inflation expectations, and spending intent — a leading read on consumer demand.

Possible effect:

Cooling sentiment could weigh on discretionary spending and equities; elevated 1-year inflation expectations and a firmer 5-year view keep policymakers cautious and may limit how quickly markets price Fed rate cuts.

The U.S. federal budget swung into a substantial deficit in July, with the monthly balance showing a −$150.85 billion shortfall versus a $48.75 billion surplus previously. Such a large monthly reversal typically reflects timing effects — big outlays or delayed receipts — but raises short-term financing needs for the Treasury. A wider-than-expected deficit increases bill and note issuance in the near term, can push up short-term yields if demand is thin, and may nudge markets to reassess U.S. funding conditions. Policymakers will stress seasonality and one-off items, but investors will watch the cash trajectory into the autumn to judge whether borrowing needs remain elevated.

What it is (short):)

The monthly budget balance equals government receipts minus spending for the period — a negative number means outlays exceeded revenues.

Possible effect:

A sudden deficit spike typically boosts near-term Treasury supply, which can lift short-term yields and pressure funding markets; if sustained, larger deficits can weigh on the dollar and long-term bond markets as investors demand higher compensation for increased supply.

U.S. inventories showed modest gains in July as retail inventories ex-auto rose 0.1% (versus a -0.1% view) and wholesale inventories climbed 0.2% (ahead of ~0.1% forecasts). The small builds point to measured restocking by retailers and distributors after earlier draws, suggesting firms are cautiously rebuilding shelves and supply lines rather than aggressively hoarding stock. From a GDP perspective, inventory accumulation adds to output in the quarter, while for companies, it may reflect improved order visibility or preparation for seasonal demand. Because increases are minor, the signal is neutral-to-slightly positive for near-term activity — supportive of production but raising a watch item on whether sales will keep pace with the replenishment.

What it is (short):

Inventory metrics track changes in goods held by retailers and wholesalers — a timely gauge of supply-chain dynamics and demand expectations.

Possible effect:

Modest restocking can lift GDP and industrial activity if sales follow, but if inventories outpace demand, firms may slow orders, which would cool manufacturing and cap price pressure.

U.S. inflation held a steady course in July as the Core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-on-month (2.9% YoY) and the headline PCE increased 0.2% m/m (2.6% YoY). At the same time household income and outlays edged higher: personal income rose 0.4% m/m and personal spending increased 0.5%, while real personal consumption grew 0.3%. The pattern — sticky but decelerating core inflation alongside resilient consumer demand — suggests disinflation is progressing without a sharp demand collapse. Policymakers will likely view the mix as a reason to stay data-dependent: price pressures are easing, yet solid spending keeps the door open to a cautious policy stance.

What it is (short):

PCE and Core PCE measure consumer-price changes (Core strips volatile food & energy); personal income/spending track households’ cash flows and outlays.

Possible effect:

Easing PCE supports expectations for eventual policy normalization toward easier settings, while strong consumption mutes how quickly markets price rate cuts — a mildly positive backdrop for equities and mixed for bonds (yields may fall but only gradually).

U.S. corporate profits rebounded in Q2, rising 2.0% quarter-on-quarter after a prior −3.3% decline. The turnaround points to recovering corporate earnings momentum—firms appear to have regained margin relief from lower costs, stronger pricing, or a rebound in activity following a weak patch. While the gain is encouraging, analysts will probe whether the improvement reflects broad-based revenue strength or one-off factors such as tax timing, inventory swing, or sector-specific gains. If sustained, firmer profits would support investment, dividends, and buybacks, helping equity sentiment. However, durability matters: renewed cost pressures or demand softness could quickly temper the upside.

What it is (short):

Corporate profits measure after-tax earnings of companies—key for investment, hiring, and financial-market valuations.

Possible effect:

A profit rebound is generally positive for equities and business investment; it can lift risk appetite and be dollar-supportive, but markets will watch next quarter for confirmation before fully repricing risk and policy expectations.

U.S. GDP surged 3.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, rebounding sharply from a prior -0.5%, driven by a strong 6.8% rise in GDP sales. The expansion suggests demand and domestic spending proved resilient in the quarter, with businesses and consumers lifting output. At the same time, the GDP price index slowed to 2.0% QoQ from 3.8%, indicating that inflationary pressure inside the national accounts has cooled. The combination — solid real growth with easing price momentum — is a constructive backdrop: growth supports risk assets, while softer GDP inflation reduces immediate pressure on the Fed. Markets will parse the upcoming monthly data to judge whether the twin trend of growth with moderating inflation persists.

What it is (short):

GDP measures total economic output; the GDP price index captures inflation within that output.

Possible effect:

A positive growth surprise is risk-on and dollar-supportive. Still, weaker domestic inflation may temper expectations for tighter Fed action — a mixed signal that could boost equities while keeping bond yields and Fed bets finely balanced.

U.S. inflation measures slowed sharply in Q2: Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred gauge) softened to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (down from 3.5%), while headline PCE slowed to 2.0% (from 3.7%). At the same time, real consumer spending surprised on the upside, rising 1.6% (vs. 0.5% previously). The mix — markedly lower inflation readings alongside resilient household spending — signals disinflation is progressing even as demand remains solid. For markets, it’s a nuanced print: price pressure appears to be easing, but strong consumption keeps growth intact, meaning policymakers will weigh slower inflation against durable demand when assessing the path and timing of rate moves.

What it is (short):

PCE and Core PCE measure consumer-price changes (Core strips volatile food/energy); real consumer spending shows inflation-adjusted household outlays.

Possible effect:

Lower PCE is dovish for rate outlooks and can support equities and lower bond yields, but robust spending may limit how quickly yields fall and could keep the Fed data-dependent on cutting.

Initial U.S. jobless claims declined to 229,000 last week from 231,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.954 million, signaling a modest easing in unemployment flows. The headline weekly drop suggests fewer fresh layoffs, but the 4-week moving average rose to 228.5k from 226.0k, tempering the upbeat read and highlighting the residue of volatility in weekly figures. Overall, the labour market still looks resilient: layoffs remain low by historical standards and the stock of continued claims is gradually easing. Policymakers will treat the print as a mixed-but-stable datapoint — consistent with a labour market that is cooling only slowly rather than collapsing.

What it is (short):

Initial claims = new unemployment benefit filings (weekly); continuing claims = people still on benefits; the 4-week average smooths weekly noise.

Possible effect:

A modestly positive sign for growth and risk assets, but the rise in the 4-week average keeps markets cautious — the Fed remains likely to stay data-dependent on any change to policy expectations.

The U.S. mortgage market showed a mixed picture: the MBA 30-year mortgage rate inched to 6.69% (from 6.68%), while weekly applications fell 0.5%, an improvement from the prior week’s 1.4% drop. The MBA Purchase Index rose to 163.8 (from 160.3), signaling firmer home-buying demand, even as the Mortgage Market Index edged slightly lower to 275.8. Refinance activity cooled — the Refinance Index slid to 894.1 from 926.1 — reflecting elevated rates versus a year ago. Overall, purchase demand appears resilient despite still-high borrowing costs, while refinancing remains subdued as homeowners weigh the economics of higher rates.

What it is (short):

MBA data tracks weekly mortgage applications and implied borrowing costs — an early barometer of housing demand and refinancing activity.

Possible effect:

Stronger purchase activity could support housing-sensitive sectors and local economic activity; persistent high rates and weak refinance flows, however, cap mortgage refinancing, keep housing affordability pressured, and may limit a swift boost to consumer spending.

The Richmond Fed’s regional indicators point to a cooling but stabilising manufacturing sector in August: the Richmond Manufacturing Index improved to -7 (from -11), while manufacturing shipments narrowed their decline to -5 (from -18). Though still below zero, the smaller negative readings indicate firms are seeing fewer downside pressures on orders and output than in prior months. Meanwhile, the Richmond Services Index rose to +4 (from +2), signalling modest expansion in services activity across the region. Together, the prints suggest a mixed regional economy — manufacturing slowly recovering from a softer patch while services continue to provide a limited growth cushion.

What it is (short):

Richmond Fed indexes are regional diffusion surveys of manufacturers and service firms; readings above 0 indicate expansion, below 0 contraction.

Possible effect:

Improving manufacturing metrics alongside steady services may ease downside growth worries, be mildly supportive for regional industrial stocks, and temper safe-haven demand; policymakers will watch for confirmation before revising growth or policy expectations.