EconoTicker

• Export Price Index (YoY, Aug): +3.4% (vs. +2.4% prior)
• Import Price Index (YoY, Aug): 0.0% (vs. -0.2% prior)
• Import Price Index (MoM, Aug): +0.3% (vs. -0.2% prior, +0.2% expected)

Market impact: Slightly supportive for USD, as firmer trade prices suggest improving external demand and mild cost pressures feeding into imports.

Historical context: Export prices rose at the fastest annual pace in nearly two years, while import prices stabilized after months of contraction, marking a shift in trade-related inflation dynamics.

• Core Retail Sales (MoM, Aug): +0.7% (vs. +0.4% prior & expected)
• Retail Sales (MoM, Aug): +0.6% (vs. +0.2% prior, +0.6% expected)
• Retail Control (MoM, Aug): +0.7% (vs. +0.4% prior, +0.5% expected)
• Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM, Aug): +0.7% (vs. +0.3% expected)
• Export Price Index (MoM, Aug): +0.3% (vs. -0.1% prior, +0.3% expected)
• Retail Sales (YoY, Aug): +5.0% (vs. +4.09% prior)

Market impact: Positive for USD, as strong retail figures point to resilient consumer demand, bolstering the case for sustained economic momentum despite high rates.

Historical context: Retail sales growth has accelerated to its fastest pace since early 2023, highlighting consumer strength as a key driver of the U.S. economy.

• 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.905% (vs. 3.940% prior)
• 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.715% (vs. 3.730% prior)

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as lower bill yields point to easing short-term funding costs and shifting expectations for Fed policy.

Historical context: Despite the small pullback, yields remain near multi-decade highs, reflecting the Fed’s restrictive stance and strong demand for safe-haven assets.

• NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep): -8.7 (vs. +4.3 prior, +11.9 expected), signaling a sharp downturn in regional factory activity.

Market impact: Negative for USD and risk sentiment, as the surprise contraction highlights weakening demand and production in the manufacturing sector.

Historical context: This is the lowest reading since May, marking a swift reversal from recent gains and underscoring the sector’s continued vulnerability to high rates and softer orders.

• Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations (Sep): 4.8%, unchanged from August and well above the Fed’s target.
• Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations (Sep): 3.9%, higher than both forecasts (3.4%) and August (3.5%), signaling sticky long-term concerns.
• Consumer Sentiment (Sep): 55.4, below forecasts (58.2) and August (58.2).
• Consumer Expectations (Sep): 51.8, weaker than August (55.9).
• Current Conditions (Sep): 61.2, broadly steady vs. August (61.7).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as weaker sentiment highlights fragile consumer confidence, while high inflation expectations may keep the Fed cautious on policy easing.

Historical context: Sentiment has fallen back near mid-2023 levels, underscoring households’ pressure from elevated borrowing costs and persistent price concerns.

• Federal Budget Balance (Aug): -345.0B, wider than expectations (-305.7B) and July’s -291.0B, reflecting higher outlays.
• Fed’s Balance Sheet: $6.606T, little changed from $6.602T a week earlier.
• Reserve Balances with Fed Banks: $3.151T, slightly lower than $3.168T, pointing to tighter liquidity.

Market impact: Negative for USD bonds, as the larger deficit highlights funding needs; neutral for USD overall given steady Fed balance sheet trends.

Historical context: August marks one of the largest monthly deficits of 2025, underscoring fiscal pressures, while Fed assets remain ~15% below their 2022 peak.

• 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.06%, down from 4.18%.
• 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.00%, down from 4.10%.
• 30-Year Bond Auction: 4.65%, easing from 4.81%.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for USD yields, as softer auction rates reflect strong demand amid Fed easing expectations.

Historical context: The 30-year bond yield is at its lowest since early 2024, highlighting a broader downward shift in long-term borrowing costs.

• Core CPI (MoM, Aug): +0.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from July.
• Core CPI (YoY, Aug): +3.1%, steady vs. July, signaling stable underlying inflation.
• Headline CPI (MoM, Aug): +0.4%, above forecasts (+0.3%) and July’s +0.2%.
• Headline CPI (YoY, Aug): +2.9%, matching expectations but up from +2.7% in July.
• CPI Index (NSA, Aug): 323.98, up from 323.05 in July.
• CPI Index (SA, Aug): 323.36, vs. 322.13 prior.

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD bonds and positive for USD, as the upside surprise in headline CPI keeps Fed rate-cut bets cautious.

Historical context: August’s annual CPI of 2.9% is the highest since early 2024, showing sticky inflation pressures even as core measures remain stable.

• Initial Jobless Claims: 263K, above expectations (235K) and last week’s 236K, marking the highest level in three months.
• Continuing Claims: 1.94M, in line with prior week and forecasts, suggesting steady unemployment rolls.
• 4-Week Avg.: 240.5K, up from 230.8K, showing a clear upward trend.
• Real Earnings (MoM, Aug): -0.1%, reversing July’s +0.1%, pointing to weaker household purchasing power.

Market impact: Negative for USD, as rising claims and softer real earnings reinforce signs of cooling in the labor market.

Historical context: Jobless claims remain below recessionary levels but are trending higher, while real wage growth has stagnated after improving earlier in 2024.

10-Year Note Auction: 4.03%, down from 4.26% previously, reflecting strong demand for long-dated U.S. debt.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for USD yields, as lower auction rates align with expectations of Fed easing. Supportive for equities and risk assets.

Historical context: The yield is the lowest since mid-2023, marking a significant shift from last year’s cycle highs above 4.5%.

• Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI (Sep): 52.37, down from 53.43 in August, signaling slightly weaker consumer confidence.

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as sentiment remains comfortably above the 50 threshold, suggesting households are still cautiously optimistic.

Historical context: The index has trended above 50 for 10 straight months, marking the longest stretch of positive sentiment since 2019.

• Wholesale Inventories (MoM, Jul): +0.1%, matching June and slightly below forecasts (+0.2%), showing cautious stockpiling.
• Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM, Jul): +1.4%, doubling June’s +0.7%, highlighting stronger demand momentum.

Market impact: Slightly positive for USD, as faster sales relative to inventories point to healthier supply-demand balance.

Historical context: The inventory-to-sales gap narrowed in July, reinforcing signs of stabilization in wholesale channels after a volatile 2023.