EconoTicker

Brazil’s IPC-Fipe inflation index rose 0.21% MoM in January, easing from 0.32% previously. The slower monthly pace suggests some near-term cooling in São Paulo’s price pressures—potentially a mild positive for BRL sentiment if confirmed by broader inflation prints.

South Korea’s January inflation data reinforced a cooling trend: CPI rose 2.0% YoY (vs 2.1% expected, 2.3% prior), coming in below forecasts and moving closer to a more comfortable range for policymakers. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.4% MoM (in line with 0.4% expected) after 0.3% previously, indicating some near-term price firming even as the annual rate eased. For KRW, softer YoY inflation can reduce “tight policy” pressure, but the market read-through will depend on how the central bank balances disinflation against growth and the currency backdrop.

South Africa’s total vehicle sales increased to 50.07K in January from 48.98K previously, signaling a firmer month-to-month pickup in dealership activity. However, annual growth slowed to 7.5% YoY from 19.2% prior, showing demand is still expanding but at a much cooler pace than late-2025’s run-rate. For ZAR sentiment, the level improvement is constructive, but the sharp YoY deceleration keeps the focus on whether consumer credit conditions and broader growth momentum can sustain durable-goods demand.

Turkey’s January exports printed at $20.30B, well below $26.40B expected and down from $22.50B previously—signaling a weaker external-sales start to the year than markets had penciled in. Still, the trade deficit narrowed to -$8.40B versus -$9.30B expected, improving from roughly -$9.40B previously (also mirrored in Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Trade’s balance figure). Bottom line: the deficit surprise is supportive on the margin, but the export miss flags softer trade momentum—keeping attention on import compression (especially energy) and financing conditions as key drivers for TRY sentiment.

Brazil’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0 in January from 47.6 previously, signaling manufacturing remains in contraction and deteriorated slightly at the start of the year. With the index still well below 50, the data point to weaker factory conditions—potentially a headwind for BRL sentiment if it persists and feeds into employment and investment expectations.

South Africa’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.7 in January from 40.5 previously, a sizable rebound that signals the industrial downturn eased materially. Even so, the index remains below 50, meaning activity is still contracting—just at a much slower pace than last month. For the ZAR, this is a constructive stabilization signal, but markets will still want to see whether the rebound holds up in output, new orders, and logistics/power reliability.

Türkiye’s Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.10 in January, down from 48.90 previously. Remaining below 50 signals the manufacturing sector is still contracting, and the decline suggests the slowdown deepened slightly at the start of the year—keeping the macro backdrop challenging for TRY sentiment as markets watch demand conditions, costs, and financing tightness.

South Korea’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI printed 51.2 in January, indicating the sector stayed in expansion (above 50) and edged up by 0.1 point from the prior reading. The data suggest a steady improvement in factory conditions—typically supportive for sentiment around the KRW when sustained, especially if export orders and output are doing the heavy lifting.

South Korea’s January exports jumped 33.9% YoY (vs 29.9% expected, 13.3% prior), signaling stronger external demand momentum, while imports rose 11.7% YoY (vs 14.6% expected, 4.6% prior), indicating softer inbound demand growth than markets anticipated. The trade balance posted a $8.74B surplus (vs $4.60B expected, $12.17B prior), meaning Korea still ran a solid surplus but it came in below last month’s stronger print despite the export upside—suggesting the month’s mix (energy/inputs and pricing) likely mattered as much as volumes.

Colombia’s central bank, Banco de la República, raised its benchmark rate by 100bp to 10.25% on Friday, January 30, 2026, marking its first hike in nearly three years and a larger move than most analysts expected. Policymakers cited rising inflation pressures, a jump in inflation expectations, and mounting fiscal and external risks; the decision was split 4–3—four backed the 100bp hike, two voted for a 50bp cut, and one preferred no change.

Mexico’s economy grew 0.8% q/q in Q4, beating expectations of 0.6% and sharply rebounding from -0.3% previously. On an annual basis, GDP rose 1.6% y/y, also above the 1.3% forecast and reversing from -0.1% prior—signalling a clear improvement in growth momentum into year-end. The upside surprise can be MXN-supportive at the margin, especially if it reduces recession risk pricing and supports carry sentiment.

Brazil’s unemployment rate printed 5.1% in December, matching expectations (5.1%) and improving slightly from 5.2% previously. The steady, low reading reinforces a tight labor market backdrop, which can support household demand but also keeps attention on wage/price dynamics as markets assess the pace of disinflation and the policy path in 2026.