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Turkey’s tourism revenues fell to $15.15B in Q4, down sharply from $24.30B previously, pointing to a weaker quarter for tourism inflows in headline terms. At the same time, foreign arrivals rose 4.99% y/y in December (vs 2.61% prior), showing momentum in visitor numbers improved. The divergence suggests the key question is spend-per-visitor and seasonal mix—whether higher volumes are translating into comparable hard-currency receipts.

Turkey’s December trade balance posted a -$9.30B deficit, slightly better than the -$9.40B forecast but wider than the prior -$7.98B, indicating the external gap expanded again. Exports rose to $26.40B (in line with expectations and up from $22.50B previously), showing a strong headline improvement, but the wider deficit implies imports increased even faster, keeping external financing sensitivity and FX attention elevated.

South Africa’s private sector credit growth rose to 8.74% y/y in December (prior 7.79%), signalling firmer lending momentum. M3 money supply eased slightly to 8.16% y/y (prior 8.26%), pointing to marginally softer liquidity growth. Meanwhile, the budget balance flipped to a 38.44B surplus in December from a -14.99B deficit previously—an abrupt swing that could influence near-term ZAR rate and bond sentiment.

South Korea’s December activity data showed a broad-based rebound. Retail sales rose 0.9% m/m, swinging sharply from -3.3% previously, pointing to a recovery in consumer spending after a weak prior month. On the supply side, service sector output increased 1.1% m/m (up from 0.7%), while industrial production climbed 1.7% m/m (vs 0.5% expected, 0.6% prior), signaling a stronger manufacturing/output pulse. Even so, the y/y industrial production rate remained slightly negative at -0.3%, though it improved meaningfully versus -2.1% previously and -1.4% prior reference—suggesting momentum is improving, but the annual trend is not fully back to growth yet.

Brazil’s CAGED net payroll jobs fell by -618.16K in December, a much larger contraction than the -478.00K expected and a dramatic swing from +85.86K previously. The weak print signals a sharp year-end deterioration in formal hiring, likely reflecting seasonal layoffs and slower momentum. This outcome can weigh on near-term growth sentiment and temper rate-cut expectations if confirmed by broader labor indicators.

South Africa’s central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% in January, matching expectations (6.75%) and the prior level (6.75%). The prime rate also remained steady at 10.25%, signaling no change in near-term borrowing conditions as policymakers balance inflation risks against growth and currency sensitivity.

Turkey’s gross FX reserves increased to $86.20B from $84.15B, indicating a modest improvement in the central bank’s external liquidity buffer. Net FX reserves also strengthened to 97.37 from 91.01, pointing to a clearer rebuilding trend. The reserve uptick is generally supportive for TRY sentiment as it reduces near-term external financing stress—though markets will still watch sustainability, swap-adjusted measures, and the policy mix.

Brazil’s bank lending rose 1.8% m/m in December, up from 0.9% previously, signaling a clear acceleration in credit expansion into year-end. The stronger lending pace can support domestic demand, but it also bears watching for its implications on inflation persistence and the central bank’s “higher-for-longer” stance.

Brazil’s IGP-M inflation index rose 0.41% m/m in January, exactly in line with expectations (0.41%) and a clear rebound from -0.01% previously. The swing back into positive territory signals renewed upstream price pressure at the margin—worth watching given IGP-M’s role in rent and contract indexation in Brazil.

South Africa’s producer price inflation held at 2.9% y/y in December, unchanged from the prior 2.9%, while the m/m rate ticked up to 0.2% from 0.0%. The data suggest factory-gate inflation remains contained overall, with only a mild month-end increase—supportive for a stable inflation backdrop unless cost pressures re-accelerate.

Turkey’s Economic Confidence Index edged down to 99.40 in January from 99.50 previously, a marginal softening that keeps sentiment essentially flat. With the index still just below the 100 thresholds (often viewed as “neutral”), the reading suggests confidence remains steady but not decisively upbeat.

Turkey’s unemployment rate fell to 7.7% in December, down from 8.5% previously, signaling a notable improvement in labor-market conditions into year-end. The decline suggests hiring held up despite tight financial conditions and inflation pressures—supportive for household demand, though markets will watch whether the drop is sustained and how participation trends evolve.