EconoTicker

Brazil’s central bank kept its policy rate (Selic) unchanged at 15.00%, matching expectations (15.00%) and the prior level (15.00%). The steady decision signals policymakers remain focused on anchoring inflation expectations, keeping financial conditions tight while they assess whether disinflation is durable.

Brazil’s foreign exchange flows came in at -$0.638B, still in net outflow territory but less negative than the prior -$1.696B. The improvement suggests reduced near-term capital pressure on the real, though persistent negative prints would still signal an ongoing drain of foreign currency liquidity.

Elon Musk lashed out at Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski after Sikorski urged him to stop Russians from using Starlink to target Ukrainian cities and warned that “making money on war crimes” could damage Musk’s brand. Musk replied that Sikorski “doesn’t even realize” Starlink is “the backbone of Ukraine military communications,” escalating the public dispute over how Starlink is used in the war and sharpening the political and reputational pressure around the service.

Elon Musk shared new footage of SpaceX testing its Super Heavy booster, showing dozens of methane-fueled Raptor engines firing at once—essentially a near-full cluster for the 33-engine first stage of Starship. At full throttle, Super Heavy is designed to deliver more than ~16 million pounds of thrust (≈7,300 tons-force), making it the most powerful booster stage by thrust and a key step toward SpaceX’s rapid-reuse launch cadence.

Mexico’s December trade data showed a stronger external position, with the headline trade balance posting a surplus of 2.430B (vs 1.640B expected, 0.663B prior). The separate USD trade balance line printed -0.860B versus -0.340B expected—a divergence that likely reflects a different series definition/coverage (or seasonally adjusted vs not), but taken together the release points to a net improvement in goods trade into year-end.

Brazil’s mid-month CPI (IPCA-15) rose 0.20% m/m in January, slightly below 0.22% expected and down from 0.25% prior, pointing to a modest cooling in near-term price momentum. However, the y/y rate ticked up to 4.50% (vs 4.52% expected, 4.41% prior), keeping inflation above target and underscoring that disinflation remains uneven—even as the monthly print eased.

Brazil’s FGV consumer confidence fell to 87.3 in January from 89.1 previously, signaling a deterioration in household sentiment. The decline suggests consumers are becoming more cautious around spending and the economic outlook—an important flag for domestic-demand momentum if weakness persists.

South Africa’s leading indicator increased to 118.40 in November from 116.80 previously, suggesting a modest improvement in the economy’s forward-looking momentum. While a single print doesn’t confirm a trend, the uptick points to slightly better conditions ahead—supportive for growth expectations if followed by improving hard activity data.

South Korea’s consumer confidence rose to 73.0 in January from 70.0 previously, indicating a modest improvement in household sentiment. However, the level remains deeply below the 100 mark (which typically signals neutral conditions), suggesting consumers are still broadly pessimistic—an important headwind for discretionary spending unless the uptrend continues.

A cluster of Nipah virus cases in West Bengal (Kolkata/Calcutta area) has triggered stepped-up regional surveillance, with authorities emphasizing that while the virus can be severe, sustained spread is typically limited without close contact. Thailand says it has begun targeted screening for travelers arriving from West Bengal at major airports, while Nepal has raised alert levels and intensified checks at its main airport and key land crossings with India. Nipah—linked to fruit bats—can progress from flu-like symptoms to encephalitis, and past outbreaks have shown a high fatality range; there is no specific antiviral cure or licensed vaccine, so treatment is mainly supportive as investigations continue into sources and contacts.

Mexico’s non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2.40% in December (vs 2.60% expected, 2.70% prior), while the seasonally adjusted rate eased to 2.60% from 2.70%. The print reinforces a picture of a tight labor market into year-end, which can support household demand but may also keep the bar higher for rapid disinflation—especially in services—depending on wage dynamics.

Brazil’s current account deficit narrowed to $3.36B in December, beating expectations (-$5.30B) and improving from -$4.94B previously, pointing to a better near-term external balance. However, the foreign direct investment (FDI) figure printed -$5.25B, a sharp downside surprise versus +$1.00B expected and +$9.82B prior, indicating a sudden deterioration in longer-term capital inflows (or a shift to net outflows), which could reintroduce sensitivity for the real if sustained.