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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسی🔹 Headline CPI:
🔹 Core CPI:
📉 Producer Prices (PPI):
Summary:
Inflation in Mexico remained sticky in June, with both headline and core measures ticking slightly above expectations. While headline annual inflation eased slightly, the monthly core figure accelerated, pointing to persistent underlying price pressures. On the producer side, PPI showed monthly deflation, which could signal relief in upstream costs going forward.
Retail Sales (MoM):
Retail Sales (YoY):
The declines were driven by further drops in new business and employment, with survey respondents citing softer domestic demand, tighter financial conditions, and political uncertainty as key headwinds.
Analysts warn that with both PMIs stuck below the 50.0 threshold, Brazil’s private sector is showing renewed signs of contraction, raising concerns that the economy could lose more momentum in the second half of 2025 unless confidence and demand recover.
South Africa’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in June, down from May’s 50.8, signaling near-stagnation in factory activity and the weakest reading since January, as the index hovered just above the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
The slowdown reflects softer growth in new orders, waning business confidence, and persistent supply-side challenges, including intermittent power cuts and logistics bottlenecks, which continue to hamper the manufacturing sector.
Analysts caution that while the PMI remains slightly in expansion territory, the fragile reading highlights vulnerabilities in South Africa’s industrial recovery, raising concerns that sustained structural issues could limit prospects for stronger growth in the second half of 2025.
Analysts caution that although the data shows tentative signs of stabilization, Turkey’s inflation remains among the highest in major emerging markets, keeping pressure on the central bank to maintain tight monetary policy to restore price stability.
India’s S&P Global Services PMI slipped to 60.4 in June, just below expectations of 60.7 and down from May’s 60.7, but still well above the 50.0 threshold, indicating robust expansion in the services sector for a 36th consecutive month.
The slight decline reflects marginally slower growth in new business and employment, but firms continued to report strong demand momentum, especially in finance, business services, and consumer-facing sectors. Input cost pressures remained elevated but showed signs of easing, supporting healthier margins.
Analysts note that despite the small dip, India’s services sector remains a key driver of overall economic growth, and sustained strength could help offset softness in manufacturing, keeping India on track as one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
Analysts note that the strong annual rebound highlights resilience in Brazil’s manufacturing sector, supported by improved demand for durable goods and easing supply chain pressures. But the monthly contraction suggests persistent headwinds, including high interest rates and weak domestic investment, which could limit momentum in the second half of 2025.
The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for India remained unchanged at 58.4 in June, matching both expectations and May’s reading, and marking one of the highest levels globally, signaling continued strong growth momentum in India’s factory sector.
The stable and elevated PMI reflects sustained increases in new orders and output, along with resilient domestic and export demand. Employment and purchasing activity also continued to rise, while cost pressures remained relatively contained, supporting healthy operating conditions.
Analysts highlight that India’s consistently strong manufacturing performance reinforces its role as a key growth driver in Asia, even as other regional economies face softening activity, and suggests the country’s industrial sector is well-positioned to contribute meaningfully to second-half 2025 GDP growth.
The S&P Global South Korea Manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.7 in June, up from 47.7 in May, signaling an easing of the downturn but remaining below the crucial 50.0 threshold that separates contraction from expansion.
The index’s improvement reflects slower declines in new orders and output, alongside stabilizing employment trends. However, ongoing challenges such as weak domestic demand and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh on South Korea’s industrial sector.
Analysts note that while the uptick suggests some relief for manufacturers, the PMI’s continued sub-50 reading highlights persistent headwinds, underscoring the need for sustained export strength and potential policy support to revive broader industrial activity.
The data reflect resilient export momentum in Asia’s fourth-largest economy, driven by tech and automotive demand, while still signaling sluggish recovery in domestic consumption. Analysts note that sustained export strength is vital for offsetting headwinds from high household debt and weak private spending, as Korea navigates the path toward steady growth in the second half of 2025.
Turkey’s unemployment rate dropped to 8.4% in May, down from April’s 8.6%, marking the lowest level since early 2018 and reflecting a modest improvement in labor market conditions.
The decline comes despite persistent economic challenges, including high inflation, tight monetary policy, and lira volatility, suggesting resilience in hiring in sectors like construction, tourism, and services. However, analysts warn that structural issues such as youth unemployment and informal labor remain pressing concerns, and sustaining progress will require broader economic stability.
South Korea’s industrial production fell sharply by 2.9% MoM in May, much worse than expectations for a -0.1% decline and accelerating from April’s -0.6% drop. On an annual basis, industrial output grew just 0.2% YoY, well below forecasts (2.6%) and down sharply from 5.1% growth in April — signaling a sharp loss of momentum in manufacturing.
Meanwhile, retail sales were flat (0.0% MoM), missing expectations of a slight decline but showing no rebound from April’s -0.9% contraction, reflecting continued weakness in consumer spending.
Service sector output also slipped 0.1% MoM, matching April’s decline, indicating stagnation in broader domestic demand beyond manufacturing.
Overall, the data point to broad-based softness across South Korea’s economy, with cooling factory activity, lackluster consumer spending, and stagnant services — factors that could increase pressure on the Bank of Korea to consider further policy support.