EconoTicker

South Africa’s unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in May, beating expectations of 6.4% and improving from April’s 6.6% reading. This marks the lowest unemployment level since before the pandemic, suggesting modest gains in job creation across some sectors.

The improvement likely reflects hiring in services, retail, and parts of mining, though structural challenges remain, including youth unemployment, skills mismatches, and weak business confidence. Economists caution that sustained progress will require structural reforms and stable policy environments to support long-term employment growth.

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 2.7% in May, up from 2.6% in April, reflecting a modest softening in labor market conditions.
• The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate also climbed to 2.7%, higher than expectations (2.5%) and April’s 2.5%.

The uptick suggests growing slack in Mexico’s labor market, possibly linked to weaker hiring in manufacturing and services amid slowing domestic and external demand. While the jobless rate remains low by historical standards, further increases could signal rising headwinds for household income and consumption, adding to pressure on economic growth.

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 8.00% at its June 2025 policy meeting, as widely expected. The move marks the second rate cut this year, reinforcing the bank’s measured easing cycle in response to steadily declining inflation.

The decision brings the rate down from 8.50%, reflecting Banxico’s growing confidence that price pressures are under control, while also acknowledging slowing domestic economic activity. However, the central bank emphasized that it will proceed cautiously, with future cuts dependent on core inflation dynamics, external volatility, and financial stability risks.

Markets viewed the cut as dovish but measured, with expectations for another potential reduction later this year if inflation stays on track.

Mexico recorded a trade surplus of MXN 1.029 billion in May, far exceeding market expectations of MXN 0.370B and sharply reversing April’s deficit of MXN -0.088B. The improvement reflects stronger export performance, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors, alongside moderated import growth.

However, in U.S. dollar terms, the trade balance showed a slight deficit of USD -0.059 billion, contrasting with April’s small surplus of USD 0.074B. The divergence underscores the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and valuation effects on external balances.

Despite the mixed reading, the overall trend points to resilience in Mexico’s trade sector, supported by nearshoring and stable demand from the U.S.

India’s M3 money supply — a broad measure of liquidity in the economy — rose 9.8% year-over-year, up from the previous reading of 9.5%. The increase reflects continued expansion in bank deposits and currency in circulation, supported by resilient credit demand and sustained capital inflows.

While the growth remains below pandemic-era highs, the acceleration may draw attention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as it balances liquidity management with inflation control, especially ahead of upcoming monetary policy decisions.

Israel’s industrial output rose 0.2% MoM in April, rebounding modestly after a sharp -0.8% decline in March. The positive figure suggests tentative stabilization in manufacturing and industrial activity, though momentum remains weak amid lingering regional uncertainty and sluggish export demand.

This slight improvement may offer short-term support to economic forecasts, but broader challenges in energy costs and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on overall industrial sentiment.

South Africa’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose only 0.1% year-over-year in May, well below expectations of 0.7% and a marked slowdown from April’s 0.5%. On a monthly basis, PPI declined 0.3%, reversing the previous +0.5% increase.

The data points to rapidly cooling cost pressures at the factory gate, reflecting easing input costs across energy, food, and basic materials. This low inflation print could influence the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain a dovish bias, especially amid weak domestic growth.

Brazil recorded a current account deficit of USD 2.93 billion in May, wider than expectations of -2.80B and more than double April’s -1.35B. The deterioration reflects higher income outflows and a weaker trade surplus, adding pressure to Brazil’s external balance.

Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) totaled USD 3.66 billion, down from 5.49B in April and below the forecast of 4.50B — a sign of cooling investor appetite despite long-term structural interest in Brazil's economy.

The widening gap between the current account and FDI inflows may intensify pressure on the Brazilian real (BRL) if the trend persists.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

Mexico’s first half-month Core CPI for June rose by 0.22%, exceeding expectations of 0.18% and above the previous 0.16%, indicating persistent underlying inflationary pressures.

The headline CPI increased 0.10% in the same period, slightly below expectations (0.12%) but above the previous 0.09%, suggesting a mild pickup in overall consumer prices.

These figures could influence Banxico’s monetary policy stance, especially as the central bank weighs inflation risks against sluggish growth.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence Index declined to 85.9 in June, down from 86.7 in May, indicating a dip in household sentiment amid persistent inflation concerns and political uncertainty.

The reading remains well below the neutral 100 mark, reflecting continued caution among Brazilian consumers, particularly regarding personal finances and future economic conditions.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

South Africa’s Leading Business Cycle Indicator fell to 112.80 in April, slightly below the previous reading of 113.16.

The decline suggests moderating forward momentum in the South African economy amid persistent challenges such as power outages, weak consumer demand, and global uncertainty.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

Turkey’s Capacity Utilization Rate declined to 74.6% in June, down from 75.0% the previous month, signaling a slight cooling in factory output.

Meanwhile, Manufacturing Confidence also dipped to 100.3, compared to 101.4 in May, suggesting that industry sentiment remains cautious amid currency pressures and uncertain global demand.