EconoTicker

Mexico’s economic activity rose 0.5% MoM in April—well above the 0.2% forecast and reversing March’s 0.2% contraction. On an annual basis, activity fell 1.5%, shallower than the 2.0% decline expected and after a 2.5% gain last year. Meanwhile, retail sales slumped 2.0% YoY in April, reversing growth seen earlier, and dipped 1.0% MoM following a 0.5% rise, underscoring cooling consumer demand.

Israel’s unemployment rate climbed to 3.10% in May, above the 3.00% forecast and up from April’s 3.00%, signalling a modest cooling in the labour market.

India’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI jumped to 58.4 in June—well above the 57.7 forecast and up from May’s 57.6—signalling robust factory expansion. The Services PMI leapt to 60.7, beating the 58.6 estimate and rising from 58.8, underscoring accelerating growth in the service sector.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept its one-week repo rate at 46.00%, the overnight borrowing rate at 44.50%, and the overnight lending rate at 49.00% in June, maintaining its monetary stance amid efforts to stabilize inflation and the lira.

Tel Aviv—The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange plunged 3% on June 19 after being hit in overnight strikes, wiping out $475 billion in market value, Russian political expert Boris Rozhin said. He added that Iran seeks to prolong the conflict to inflict maximal economic damage on Israel while guarding its internal stability, warning that Tehran’s main vulnerability lies in potential domestic destabilization.

The Central Bank of Brazil increased its benchmark Selic interest rate by 25 basis points to 15.00% (previous: 14.75%; forecast: 14.75%), marking its latest move to combat persistent inflation.

Pretoria—South Africa’s core consumer price index (CPI) held at 3.0% year-on-year in May, matching consensus, while the month-on-month core rate was flat at 0.0%, below the 0.1% forecast. Headline CPI rose 2.8% annually, in line with expectations, and 0.2% on the month, softer than the 0.3% predicted.

Turkey’s current account deficit widened to USD 7.86 billion in April (March: USD 4.09 billion). The central bank trimmed its end-2025 CPI forecast to 29.86% in June (previous: 30.35%). Retail sales jumped 11.5% year-on-year in April (March: 9.2%) and rose 2.8% month-on-month (March: –1.4%), underscoring robust consumer spending.

In May, India’s WPI inflation slowed to 0.39% year-on-year (forecast: 0.80%; April: 0.85%), marking the weakest increase in over a year. Wholesale food prices plunged 1.56% YoY (April: –0.86%), while fuel deflation deepened to –2.27% (April: –2.18%). Excluding volatile items, manufacturing inflation eased to 2.04% YoY (April: 2.62%), underscoring broad-based price softness across the economy.

South Korea’s exports fell 1.3% year-on-year in May (April: +3.7%), marking the first annual decline in several months. Imports also slid 5.3% year-on-year (April: –2.7%), reflecting weak domestic demand. Despite the export slowdown, the trade surplus widened to USD 6.94 billion in May (from USD 4.88 billion in April), as lower import volumes outpaced the decline in exports.

Brazil’s retail sales rose 4.8% year-on-year in April (forecast: 3.4%; March: –1.0%), marking the first annual gain in several months. However, on a month-on-month basis, sales fell 0.4% (forecast: –0.8%; March: +0.8%), signaling a modest pullback in consumer spending.

Brazil’s Consumer Price Index rose 5.32% year-on-year in May (April: 5.53%), marking a further deceleration in inflation. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.26% in May (April: 0.43%), indicating moderating price pressures.