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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیRussia’s PPI continued to decline on a monthly basis in June, while annual producer inflation slowed to near stagnation, reflecting subdued cost pressures across industries.
🔹 Key Data:
📉 What it Means:
The sustained monthly drop in producer prices and near-zero annual growth highlight weak industrial cost momentum. This may reflect lower energy prices, muted domestic demand, and stable input costs—factors that could limit upward pressure on consumer inflation in the months ahead.
Israel’s economy expanded at a 3.5% annualized pace in Q1, a notable improvement from the previous reading, though slightly below market expectations.
🔹 Key Data:
📈 What it Means:
The upward revision signals stronger-than-expected domestic activity early in the year, supported by resilient consumption and investment. However, the slight miss versus forecasts may reflect emerging headwinds from geopolitical uncertainty and slowing global demand.
South Korea saw deeper declines in both export and import prices in June, reflecting global disinflation pressures, while the jobless rate edged lower.
🔹 Key Data:
📉 What it Means:
Falling trade prices highlight continued external deflationary forces—likely driven by lower energy and raw material costs. However, the steady improvement in employment signals domestic resilience, giving the Bank of Korea room to focus on growth risks without immediate labor market concerns.
Inflation in Israel matched expectations in June, while a steep contraction in money supply signals tight financial conditions and waning liquidity.
🔹 Key Data:
📉 What it Means:
June’s inflation data shows price pressures are stable but not easing meaningfully, keeping the Bank of Israel cautious. However, the sharp drop in M1 money supply may raise concerns about slowing credit creation and household spending, especially amid heightened geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.
South Africa’s mining sector showed signs of stabilization in May, with gold production returning to growth after consecutive declines.
🔹 Key Data:
📈 What it Means:
After months of sharp contractions, South Africa’s mining sector posted flat but positive growth in May. The recovery in gold production was a key contributor. However, overall output remains weak by historical standards, and persistent power shortages and logistics constraints continue to weigh on the industry.
India’s June inflation data shows a significant divergence between wholesale and consumer prices, reinforcing expectations of policy space for the RBI.
🔹 Key Data:
📉 What it Means:
India’s wholesale prices continued to decline, with food and fuel costs dragging WPI deeper into deflation territory. Meanwhile, headline CPI also cooled more than expected to 2.10%, nearing the lower bound of the RBI’s 2–6% inflation target. This soft inflation profile could open the door for a more dovish stance by the Reserve Bank of India in upcoming policy meetings.
Brazil’s service sector grew just 0.1% month-over-month in May, decelerating from 0.4% in April, reflecting a slower pace of expansion in domestic demand and activity.
However, on an annual basis, the sector expanded by 3.6% year-over-year, a notable acceleration from 1.8% in April, suggesting that the broader trend remains positive and supported by sectors like transportation, IT, and professional services.
Mexico’s industrial production rose by 0.6% month-over-month in May, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% decline and reversing the 0.2% increase in April. This improvement was mainly driven by stronger performance in manufacturing and construction sectors.
However, on a yearly basis, industrial output contracted by 0.8%, though this was less severe than April’s 1.9% drop, indicating that the sector remains under pressure compared to last year’s performance.
Turkey’s retail sales rose 1.6% month-over-month in May, bouncing back from a downwardly revised 2.9% contraction in April. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales growth accelerated sharply to 17.7%, up from 11.7% in the previous month, signaling robust domestic demand despite ongoing inflationary pressures.
This rebound in consumer spending could reflect increased household resilience, a stabilization in credit conditions, or a frontloading of purchases ahead of expected price hikes.
Brazil’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.24% month-over-month in June, slightly above expectations of 0.20%, though easing from 0.26% in May. On a yearly basis, inflation accelerated to 5.35%, just above forecasts of 5.32%, and remaining well above the central bank’s 3% target.
Additionally, the seasonally adjusted IPCA index climbed 0.31%, nearly in line with the prior 0.32%, signaling persistent price pressures, particularly in services and food. The data may temper hopes for aggressive monetary easing by Brazil’s central bank despite recent rate cuts.
Turkey's industrial sector rebounded sharply in May, with monthly industrial production jumping 11.4%, a dramatic turnaround from the -5.3% contraction recorded in April. On an annual basis, output rose 4.9%, exceeding the previous 3.1% growth.
The strong monthly gain reflects a recovery in manufacturing and energy output following temporary disruptions earlier in the year. Despite persistent inflationary pressures and tight monetary conditions, the industrial sector appears to have regained momentum, potentially supporting GDP growth in Q2.
These figures could ease some concerns over domestic demand weakness and signal improving confidence among Turkish producers.
🏦 Official Rate: 2.50%
✅ The Bank of Korea kept its base rate steady at 2.50%, as widely expected, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing global uncertainties and moderate domestic inflation.
💬 The central bank reiterated that while inflation is gradually easing, geopolitical risks and weak exports remain downside factors, warranting a wait-and-see approach.