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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیIndia’s HSBC/S&P Global services PMI rose to 60.5 in July, up from 60.4 in June and well above the flash estimate of 59.8. The reading marks the highest level in 11 months and signals that the sector has expanded continuously for four years. Survey data showed export orders accelerating at the second-fastest pace in a year as demand from Asia, Europe, North America and the Middle East strengthened. Overall new business remained robust, aided by marketing and new client wins, though domestic order growth eased slightly. Finance and insurance led the gains, while real estate and business services lagged. Despite strong sales, firms slowed hiring to a 15‑month low and reported rising costs for food, freight and labour, passing some of those increases on to customers. The combination of buoyant demand and heightened price pressures suggests India’s services sector remains a key engine of growth, but it may keep the Reserve Bank of India cautious about lowering interest rates.
South Korea’s consumer prices rose 2.1% year‑on‑year in July, easing from 2.2% in June. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.2%, reversing a flat reading in June and matching market expectations. The modest slowdown suggests inflation remains above the Bank of Korea’s 2% target but is losing momentum. A weak won and higher prices for industrial goods and services—including processed food and certain fruits—drove the gains, while some agricultural prices eased. The consumer price index (CPI) tracks changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services consumed by households and is a key gauge of inflation. Stable readings near target may encourage the central bank to keep interest rates steady, balancing support for growth with vigilance against renewed price pressures.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Broad-based gains in manufacturing, retail, and services indicate a synchronized uptick in domestic demand and production after spring’s slowdown, underscoring tentative resilience in Korea’s recovery.
MARKET REACTION
The Korean won strengthened modestly against the dollar and KOSPI futures edged higher as investors welcomed signs of a pickup in economic momentum.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will watch upcoming export data, CPI readings, and the Bank of Korea’s next policy meeting for clues on whether the recovery will sustain and influence monetary policy.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
The Banco Central do Brasil kept its benchmark Selic rate unchanged, signaling ongoing caution toward inflation while acknowledging signs of slowing economic activity.
MARKET REACTION
The Brazilian real was little changed against the dollar and government bond yields moved marginally as investors digested the decision.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will watch upcoming IPCA inflation data and the minutes of the BCB meeting for hints on whether the central bank will maintain its restrictive stance or begin easing.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Annual growth slowed sharply to 0.1%, reflecting lingering drag from external headwinds, while quarter-on-quarter expansion of 0.7% highlights a rebound in domestic activity and consumption.
MARKET REACTION
The Mexican peso traded little changed against the dollar and local equity futures edged higher as investors balanced the mixed growth signals.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will look to upcoming inflation data and Banxico’s policy minutes for clues on whether the central bank will adjust its stance to support the nascent recovery.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
July’s drop in the Economic Confidence Index signals growing caution among households and businesses, and the uptick in unemployment points to a loosening labour market.
MARKET REACTION
The Turkish lira was little changed and BIST 100 futures slipped modestly as investors weighed weaker sentiment alongside mixed economic signals.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will focus on upcoming CBRT policy minutes and next week’s inflation data for clues on the central bank’s likely stance.
KEY FIGURES
M3 Money Supply YoY (Jun): 7.27% (prev: 6.86%)
Private Sector Credit YoY (Jun): 4.98% (prev: 4.98%)
WHAT IT MEANS
The uptick in M3 indicates rising liquidity in the economy, while unchanged private sector credit growth suggests banks are maintaining steady lending to households and businesses.
MARKET REACTION
The rand was little changed against the US dollar, and government bond yields held near recent lows as investors digested the data.
OUTLOOK
Market participants will focus on next week’s SARB policy decision and upcoming CPI figures to gauge whether the surge in money supply will translate into higher inflation.
KEY FIGURES
• One‑Week Repo Rate (Jul): 43.00% (est: 43.50%; prev: 46.00%)
• Overnight Borrowing Rate (Jul): 41.50% (est: 43.50%; prev: 44.50%)
• Overnight Lending Rate (Jul): 46.00% (prev: 49.00%)
• Gross FX Reserves (Jul, USD bn): 83.30 (prev: 81.55)
• Net FX Reserves (Jul, %): 62.80% (prev: 59.79%)
WHAT IT MEANS
The CBRT cut its one‑week repo, overnight borrowing, and overnight lending rates by more than expected—underscoring a persistent easing bias despite high inflation—while FX reserves edged higher over the month.
MARKET REACTION
The Turkish lira strengthened modestly against the US dollar, and local government bond yields eased following the rate cuts.
OUTLOOK
Investors will watch upcoming inflation prints and the CBRT’s next policy meeting for clues on the pace of further easing.
Israel’s factory production surged in May, posting a 7.3% month‑on‑month gain, well above April’s 0.5% rise.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
The sharp increase likely reflects base‑year effects and catch‑up production in key sectors. While a positive sign for manufacturing momentum, markets will watch if the spike proves sustainable beyond one‑off factors.
India’s industrial sector showed a moderate year‑to‑date gain but softer annual growth, even as manufacturing rebounded sharply month‑on‑month.
🔹 Key Data (June):
📊 What it Means:
While cumulative output growth remained steady, annual production fell short of expectations, suggesting lingering headwinds in utilities and mining. However, the strong monthly rebound in manufacturing suggests factories are regaining momentum, which could help lift overall industrial performance if sustained.
India’s private sector activity remained robust in July, with the manufacturing sector regaining momentum while services growth held near multi-year highs.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
The data indicate resilient domestic demand and improving factory output, keeping India among the world’s fastest-growing major economies.
South Korea’s economy grew 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, recovering from a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 0.5%, slightly above expectations.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
The rebound reflects gradual improvement in domestic demand and exports. However, the modest annual growth rate signals ongoing challenges in sustaining momentum amid global uncertainties.