EconoTicker

نرخ تورم سالانه شاخص قیمت مصرف‌کننده (CPI) هند در ماه جولای به ۱٫۵۵٪ کاهش یافت که از ۲٫۱۰٪ در ژوئن کمتر بوده و پایین‌تر از پیش‌بینی ۱٫۷۶٪ است. این کاهش چشمگیر ناشی از افت قیمت مواد غذایی و سوخت بوده و تورم را به زیر محدوده هدف بانک مرکزی هند رسانده است.

India’s annual CPI inflation slowed to 1.55% in July, down from 2.10% in June and below market expectations of 1.76%. The sharp decline reflects softer food and fuel prices, keeping inflation well under the Reserve Bank of India’s target range.

South Africa’s unemployment rate edged up to 33.2% in Q2 from 32.9% in Q1, with the number of unemployed increasing to 8.367 million from 8.228 million. The labor market remains under pressure despite signs of improvement in certain sectors.

South Africa’s gold production rose 3.1% YoY in June, more than double the previous 1.5% growth rate. Overall mining production increased 2.4%, rebounding strongly from May’s modest 0.3% gain, reflecting improved output across key commodities.

Turkey recorded a current account deficit of $2.01B in June, larger than the expected $1.40B and up sharply from the $0.68B deficit in May. Retail sales growth slowed, with annual sales rising 14.7% YoY (down from 17.7%) and monthly sales increasing 1.3%, slightly below the previous 1.6%.

At its August meeting, Mexico’s central bank trimmed its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%, in line with market expectations. Banxico noted that headline inflation has moderated toward its 3% target, with core measures also easing. Officials emphasized the rate cut aims to sustain the economic recovery by lowering borrowing costs while remaining prepared to tighten again if price pressures re-emerge.

Mexico’s headline CPI rose 0.27% month-on-month in July, slightly below the 0.28% forecast and matching June’s pace, while the annual rate slowed to 3.51%, down from 4.32% a year earlier. Core inflation—excluding volatile food and energy—was 0.31% MoM, just above expectations, bringing the annual core rate to 4.23%, its lowest since early 2024. Producer prices fell 0.5% MoM and grew 3.80% YoY, signaling easing cost pressures for manufacturers.

What it is: The CPI tracks consumer‐level price changes for goods and services, and PPI measures prices received by producers.

Possible Effect: Continued disinflation may give the Bank of Mexico room to pause rate hikes or even cut borrowing costs, supporting growth and peso stability, while lower production costs could boost corporate margins.

The Reserve Bank of India maintained its policy corridor in August, keeping the repo rate at 5.50%, the reverse repo rate at 3.35%, and the cash reserve ratio at 4.00%. Governor Shaktikanta Das cited stable inflation expectations and a gradual economic recovery as justifications for holding rates. The steady reverse repo rate continues to incentivize banks to park excess funds with the RBI, supporting liquidity management, while an unchanged CRR ensures ample system-wide cash. By keeping borrowing costs constant, the central bank aims to sustain credit growth and bolster investment without stoking price pressures. Markets have interpreted the decision as a pause to monitor the global outlook and monsoon-driven rural demand before any further policy action.

Brazil’s S&P Global composite PMI fell to 46.6 in July, well below forecasts of 48.7, marking the fifteenth straight month of contraction and the weakest reading since early 2023. The services PMI dropped to 46.3, missing the 49.3 forecast, as consumer demand remained subdued amid high inflation and tighter monetary policy. Survey respondents cited falling new orders, cost pressures and cautious client spending, leading firms to cut back on hours and postpone hiring. The downturn in business activity suggests Brazil’s economic recovery is stalling and may weigh on Q3 growth. Persistent contraction in both manufacturing and services could prompt further policy easing by the central bank if inflation shows sustained signs of cooling.

The South African Reserve Bank cut its repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 7.00% in August, matching market expectations after holding at 7.25% for two months. The bank cited easing inflationary pressures, with headline consumer prices retreating from recent peaks, and slower growth in food and fuel costs. In response, commercial banks lowered their prime lending rates to 10.50%. The move aims to bolster economic activity by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and households. While lower rates should support consumer spending and investment, the central bank stressed it will remain data-dependent, ready to adjust policy if inflation or growth dynamics diverge from forecasts.

Brazil’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% in June, down from 6.2% in May and below the 6.0% forecast. This marks the lowest jobless rate in more than two years, reflecting continued strength in the labour market. Employment gains were driven by growth in services and construction, as companies ramped up hiring ahead of festive season demand. A tighter labour market is likely to boost consumer spending and support household incomes, helping to underpin economic growth. At the same time, easing unemployment may alleviate some inflationary pressures, giving the Central Bank of Brazil room to maintain its current monetary policy stance or consider gradual rate cuts later this year.

Turkey’s exports surged to an all‑time high of $25 billion in July, up from $20.5 billion in June, driven by strong demand for industrial goods. Imports rose more modestly to about $31 billion, shrinking the trade deficit to $6.4 billion, the smallest gap since October 2024. Meanwhile, annual consumer price inflation eased to 33.52%—below expectations and down from 35.05% in June—while monthly CPI rose 2.06%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, beverages, tobacco and gold, slowed to 34.7% year‑on‑year and 1.7% month‑on‑month. Producer prices increased 1.73% on the month and 24.19% on the year, suggesting cost pressures are moderating. CPI measures changes in consumer prices, PPI tracks factory‑gate prices, and the trade balance reflects exports minus imports. July’s data indicate Turkey’s economy is benefiting from booming exports and receding inflation, which may give the central bank room to continue its easing cycle while still working toward long‑term price stability.