EconoTicker

Donald Trump’s pick for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, served on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors from 2006–2011 and—at 35—was the youngest Fed governor ever appointed. During the 2008 financial crisis, he became a key liaison between the Fed and Wall Street, and he also represented the central bank at G20 meetings while acting as the Board’s emissary to economies in Asia. Before the Fed, he served in the White House National Economic Council (2002–2006) and earlier worked in M&A at Morgan Stanley & Co.—credentials now under Senate scrutiny as he’s slated to replace Jerome Powell when Powell’s term ends in May 2026.

President Trump announced he has nominated Warsh as the next Fed chair, set to replace Jerome Powell when Powell’s term ends in May 2026, pending Senate confirmation. In a post on Truth Social, Trump praised Warsh as “central casting,” saying he “will never let you down,” and added he expects Warsh to be one of the “GREAT Fed Chairmen.”

President Donald Trump said on January 30, 2026, he will nominate former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair when Powell’s term ends in May, a pick widely read as an attempt to calm investor nerves after weeks of tension over Fed independence. Earlier this month, the Justice Department opened an investigation tied to Powell, and Powell responded with an unusual public pushback—arguing the legal threat was effectively punishment for not setting rates to match the president’s preferences—a backdrop that helped fuel a safe-haven rush into gold before the Warsh headline shifted sentiment.

The Chicago PMI jumped to 54.0 in January, crushing expectations of 43.5 and rising from 42.7 previously. The move back above 50 signals a return to expansion in regional manufacturing/business conditions and points to a materially stronger start to the year than markets were pricing—potentially supportive for near-term USD and risk sentiment if confirmed by broader national ISM/PMI data.

US producer prices surprised sharply to the upside in December. Headline PPI rose 0.5% m/m (vs 0.2% expected; 0.2% prior), while core PPI jumped 0.7% m/m (vs 0.2% expected; 0.0% prior), signalling a clear re-acceleration in underlying pipeline inflation. On a yearly basis, PPI held at 3.0% y/y (vs 2.7% expected; 3.0% prior), but core PPI climbed to 3.3% y/y (vs 2.9% expected; 3.1% prior). The “supercore” style measure PPI ex food/energy/transport also firmed at 0.4% m/m (prior 0.2%) and stayed 3.5% y/y. Net: this print is hawkish for near-term Fed pricing and can push USD and front-end yields higher if markets read it as sustained input-cost pressure.

Democrats and the White House have agreed to split Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from the broader government funding package and extend DHS funding for two weeks, buying time to negotiate potential limits and oversight on the Trump administration’s expanded immigration enforcement (including ICE). The compromise is designed to avert a near-term partial shutdown, though lawmakers still warned a brief funding lapse is possible given House timing, with the main fight now shifting to what guardrails (if any) Congress will attach to DHS/ICE operations.

The U.S. Treasury’s 7-year note auction cleared at 4.018%, up from 3.930% previously—signaling a firmer term-premium tone and/or softer demand at the long-intermediate point of the curve. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet edged up to $6.588T (from $6.585T). Still, reserve balances fell to $2.883T (from $2.957T), pointing to a notable liquidity drain in the banking system even as the headline balance-sheet level was roughly steady.

The U.S. Treasury’s short-end auctions were essentially stable: the 4-week bill cleared at 3.630%, unchanged from 3.630% previously, while the 8-week bill edged up to 3.635% from 3.630%. The small move suggests steady front-end funding conditions and little change in near-term rate expectations.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model cut its Q4 growth estimate to 4.2%, down from 5.4% previously (and below the 5.4% reference). The downgrade signals softer real-time tracking for late-year activity—often driven by weaker net exports, inventories, or consumption inputs—as incoming data reshapes the model’s components.

U.S. wholesale trade sales rose 1.3% m/m in November, a sharp rebound from -0.4% previously, pointing to stronger distribution demand into month-end. Meanwhile, wholesale inventories increased 0.2% m/m, matching expectations (0.2%) but slowing from 0.5% prior. The combination is constructive: sales accelerating while inventories build more modestly implies a healthier inventory-to-sales balance and reduces near-term overhang risk.

U.S. durables excluding defense rose 6.5% m/m in November, essentially matching the prior 6.6% surge and signaling that momentum in big-ticket demand stayed strong. Durables excluding transportation increased 0.4% m/m, only slightly softer than the 0.5% prior, indicating underlying capital-goods and equipment demand remains constructive even after stripping out the most volatile categories.

U.S. factory orders rose 2.7% m/m in November, beating 1.7% expected and rebounding sharply from -1.2% previously signaling a clear pickup in goods demand/order flow. Stripping out transportation, orders still increased 0.2% m/m, improving from -0.1% prior, suggesting the strength wasn’t solely driven by big-ticket aircraft/auto swings. The combination supports a firmer near-term manufacturing backdrop.