EconoTicker

U.S. January S&P Global PMIs were largely stable. Services PMI printed 52.5 (vs 52.9 expected, 52.5 prior), a small downside miss but still in expansion. Manufacturing PMI held at 51.9 (in line with expectations, up from 51.8), while the Composite PMI edged up to 52.8 (from 52.7). Overall, the data point to continued moderate growth momentum with little change in the near-term activity picture.

Market impact: Mostly neutral for Fed pricing—supports a “soft-landing/steady growth” narrative; modestly supportive for risk assets, with USD and yields still more sensitive to inflation and labor-market surprises.

The White House said the United States has formally completed its withdrawal from the World Health Organization, following a one-year notice period triggered by President Trump’s withdrawal order. U.S. officials and multiple reports describe the exit as effective as of Jan. 22, 2026, ending decades of U.S. membership and participation in WHO governance and technical coordination.

Market impact: Limited immediate macro impact, but the move can raise tail-risk around global disease surveillance/vaccine coordination and policy uncertainty—relevant to healthcare supply chains, travel/airlines sensitivity in outbreak headlines, and broader risk sentiment if future public-health shocks emerge.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet edged higher to $6,585B from $6,582B, while reserve balances fell sharply to $2.957T from $3.062T. The move suggests a notable week-to-week drain in system reserves even as the headline balance sheet was little changed—often reflecting shifts in Treasury cash balances, reverse repos, or other liability-side dynamics.

Market impact: Lower reserves can tighten short-term liquidity at the margin, but this is typically rates-market plumbing unless the trend persists; watch front-end funding conditions and SOFR/OIS spreads for signs of stress.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model kept its Q4 2025 real GDP growth estimate unchanged at 5.4% (forecast 5.4%, prior 5.4%), reinforcing a strong late-year growth signal in the nowcast.

Market impact: Mildly hawkish at the margin—supports USD and front-end yields, while keeping duration-sensitive assets (long Treasuries, high-multiple equities, gold) more exposed to real-yield repricing.

U.S. Treasury auction yields moved up at the front end, with the 4-week bill clearing at 3.630% (vs 3.595% prior) and the 8-week bill also at 3.630% (vs 3.600% prior). In inflation-linked supply, the 10-year TIPS auction stopped at a 1.940% real yield, higher than the 1.843% expected, suggesting investors demanded more real yield compensation than anticipated.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for Treasuries at the margin (higher bill and TIPS yields), supportive for the USD via yield differentials; higher real yields can be a headwind for gold and long-duration equities if the move extends.

The KC Fed Manufacturing Index ticked up to -2 in January (from -3 previously), signaling a modest easing in regional factory weakness, though activity remains slightly contractionary. The KC Fed Composite Index held at 0 (unchanged), pointing to broadly flat overall business conditions across the district.

Market impact: Limited market mover, but mildly supportive for a “stabilising manufacturing” narrative; unlikely to shift Fed pricing unless echoed by broader regional and national surveys.

November core PCE inflation held at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations and unchanged from prior), but the y/y rate rose to 2.8% (matching forecasts, up from 2.7%). Headline PCE was steady at 0.2% m/m (in line, down from 0.3%) with the y/y rate at 2.8% (unchanged, in line). On activity, personal spending rose 0.5% m/m (in line, up from 0.4%) and real consumption increased 0.3% m/m (up from 0.1%). Personal income came in at 0.3% m/m, missing 0.4% expectations and down from 0.4% previously. The mix signals sticky inflation with resilient demand, while income growth softened at the margin.

Market impact: Slightly hawkish for Fed pricing because core inflation is firmer y/y and spending is solid; supportive for USD and front-end yields, while keeping long-duration assets sensitive to “higher-for-longer” repricing.

October core PCE inflation came in steady-to-softer: 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations) and 2.7% y/y (down from 2.8%). Headline PCE also printed 0.2% m/m (down from 0.3%) and 2.7% y/y (down from 2.8%). On the growth side, personal spending rose 0.5% m/m, beating the 0.3% prior, while personal income increased just 0.1% m/m (down from 0.4%). The mix suggests easing inflation pressure alongside resilient consumption, though income softness implies spending may be drawing more on savings/credit at the margin.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for Fed pricing on the inflation side (supports duration), but the strong spending print offsets some of that dovishness by keeping the “growth is holding up” narrative intact; overall reaction often depends on rates positioning.

U.S. corporate profits rose 4.7% q/q in Q3, beating expectations (4.4%) and sharply higher than the prior 0.2% gain. The upside suggests improved margin dynamics and operating leverage through the quarter, even as input costs and rates stayed elevated.

Market impact: Generally equity-supportive (earnings backdrop improves) and can reinforce “resilient growth” pricing; however, stronger profits alongside firm inflation can also keep yields supported, which matters for valuation-sensitive segments.

U.S. Q3 core PCE prices (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose 2.9%, matching expectations but up from 2.6% previously—signaling firmer underlying inflation. Headline PCE prices increased 2.8% (in line with forecasts, up from 2.1%), while real consumer spending remained strong at 3.5% (unchanged vs expected, up from 2.5%). The mix underscores a “hotter prices + resilient demand” combination for the quarter.

Market impact: Hawkish at the margin for rate expectations—supports higher yields/stronger USD and can be a headwind for long-duration assets if markets lean toward “higher for longer.”

The U.S. 20-year Treasury auction cleared at 4.846%, up from 4.798% previously signaling higher required yield (weaker pricing) versus the last sale and suggesting investors demanded more compensation for duration and supply. In the current backdrop, long-end auctions are especially sensitive to term-premium and fiscal headlines.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for long-duration Treasuries (upward pressure on long yields), supportive for the USD at the margin via higher yields, and a potential headwind for rate-sensitive equities if the move extends.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 edged higher to 5.4%, up from 5.3% previously (and above the prior 5.3% reading). The uptick reinforces a strong end-of-year growth signal in the model, though GDPNow can move quickly as new data land.

Market impact: Slightly hawkish for rates at the margin (supports the “resilient growth” narrative), potentially supportive for USD and a headwind for duration-sensitive assets if confirmed by broader data.