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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیThe Dallas Fed’s manufacturing business index improved in February, moving back into positive territory.
Why it matters: a return above zero suggests improving regional factory sentiment, though the Dallas series can be volatile—follow-through matters.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (data as provided)
U.S. manufacturing demand softened on the headline in December as factory orders fell more than expected, even as some core categories held up.
Why it matters: the headline misses cooling goods demand, but resilience in ex-transport prints suggests the slowdown isn’t uniform across categories.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Factory Orders/Durable Goods data as provided)
President Donald Trump’s planned new import levies are rooted in a separate, rarely used—and largely untested—legal authority: Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The statute allows a temporary, across-the-board import surcharge of up to 15%, but it comes with a built-in time limit that could quickly turn the policy into a new political and legal battleground.
Key details:
Source: Trade Act of 1974 (Section 122); White House fact sheet; Reuters; CFR; legal analysis notes
Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s broad emergency-power tariffs were not legally justified, striking down a key pillar of his trade agenda. Markets initially read the decision as a potential cooling of trade frictions and a marginal positive for global growth sentiment.
The relief didn’t last. President Donald Trump responded by announcing a new global tariff under Section 122 of U.S. trade law—10% on imports for 150 days—then lifting the rate to 15%, the maximum allowed under that provision.
This pivot complicates the outlook for Asian exporters that depend heavily on U.S. demand. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, and several regional economies had previously negotiated trade arrangements or tariff exemptions with Washington—leaving investors to reassess how protected (or temporary) those frameworks really are.
Source: U.S. Supreme Court ruling; U.S. administration statements; Section 122 of U.S. trade law
The University of Michigan’s February readings showed slightly weaker sentiment, while inflation expectations cooled. Consumer sentiment came in at 56.6 (vs 57.3 expected; prior 56.4). 1-year inflation expectations eased to 3.4% (vs 3.5% expected; prior 4.0%), while 5-year expectations held at 3.3% (vs 3.4% expected; prior 3.3%). Current conditions were 56.6 (vs 58.3 expected; prior 55.4) and consumer expectations printed 56.6 (vs 56.6 expected; prior 57.0).
Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
U.S. new home sales printed 745K in December (vs 732K expected; prior 656K) but the monthly pace flipped negative, with sales down -1.7% MoM after +15.5% MoM in November. November sales were reported at 758K (prior 737K).
Market lens: Levels remain elevated versus prior months, but the MoM drop suggests the post-spike momentum is cooling as rates/affordability stay in focus.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau & HUD (New Residential Sales).
The U.S. flash February PMI set cooled and came in below expectations, though it stayed in expansion territory. Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.2 (vs 52.4 expected; prior 52.4), Services PMI slipped to 52.3 (vs 53.0 expected; prior 52.7), and the Composite PMI eased to 52.3 (vs 53.0 expected; prior 53.0).
Source: S&P Global (Flash PMI).
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model nudged its Q1 growth tracking estimate up to 3.1%, from 3.0% previously—signaling a slightly firmer near-term growth nowcast.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (GDPNow).
The Dallas Fed PCE measure printed 2.20% for December, up from 1.50% previously—pointing to firmer inflation dynamics in that gauge.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The latest revision showed a much softer U.S. growth pulse in Q4, with inflation still elevated in the GDP deflator. GDP (QoQ, annualized) was revised down to 1.4% (vs 2.8% expected; prior 4.4%). Underlying demand also cooled sharply: GDP Sales / Final Sales (Q4) came in at 1.2%, down from 4.5% previously.
Inflation in the national accounts stayed firm: the GDP Price Index (QoQ, annualized) printed 3.7% (vs 2.8% expected; unchanged from 3.7% prior).
Market lens: This is a “stagflation-leaning” mix—growth cooling fast while the deflator remains sticky—supportive of the “higher-for-longer” debate even as recession-risk chatter can pick up.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP (advance/second/third estimate revisions where applicable).
Updated Q4 data showed a firmer inflation profile alongside slower consumption growth. Core PCE Prices (Q4) were revised up to 2.70% (vs 2.60% expected; prior 2.90%), signaling underlying inflation remained sticky. Headline PCE Prices (Q4) printed 2.9% (vs 2.8% expected; prior 2.8%). Meanwhile, Real Consumer Spending (Q4) was 2.4%, down sharply from 3.5% previously—pointing to cooling demand momentum into year-end.
Market lens: This “hotter inflation / softer demand” mix can complicate the Fed narrative—keeping inflation concerns elevated while growth indicators lose some heat.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP/PCE revisions.
U.S. inflation re-accelerated at year-end, with the Fed’s preferred gauge coming in hotter than expected. Core PCE rose +0.4% MoM in December (vs +0.3% expected; prior +0.2%) and climbed to 3.0% YoY (vs 2.9% expected; prior 2.8%). Headline PCE inflation also ran hotter: +0.4% MoM (vs +0.3% expected; prior +0.2%) and 2.9% YoY (vs 2.8% expected; prior 2.8%).
The income-and-spending mix was steady but not booming. Personal income rose +0.3% MoM (in line with expectations; prior +0.4%). Personal spending increased +0.4% MoM (in line; unchanged from prior +0.4%), while real personal consumption slowed to +0.1% MoM (prior +0.2%).
Market lens: A hotter core PCE print strengthens the “higher for longer” case and can keep rate-cut expectations restrained—especially if services inflation stays sticky.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Personal Income and Outlays / PCE price index.