translate
English
پارسی
English
Englishپارسی
English
Englishپارسی
EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیU.S. January CPI came in cooler than expected on the headline, with CPI (MoM) at 0.2% (vs 0.3% est.) and CPI (YoY) at 2.4% (vs 2.5% est.). Core inflation was steadier: Core CPI (MoM) matched forecasts at 0.3%, while Core CPI (YoY) held at 2.5% (in line, slightly down from 2.6% prior). A notable bright spot was purchasing power: Real Earnings (MoM) jumped 0.5% after -0.5% previously.
Market read: headline disinflation is a dovish tilt, but core sticking at 0.3% MoM keeps the “Fed hold” narrative intact unless subsequent prints re-accelerate.
The latest weekly Fed plumbing data showed a modest increase in system liquidity, with both the headline balance sheet and reserve balances moving higher.
Market takeaway:
A rise in reserves typically signals slightly easier liquidity conditions at the margin, though week-to-week moves can reflect technical factors (Treasury cash balance shifts, settlement dynamics) rather than a durable change in the policy stance.
USD angle:
This is generally second-order for FX day-to-day, but sustained increases in reserves can be mildly USD-negative over time if they coincide with easier overall financial conditions.
Weekly U.S. labor-market data came in slightly softer than expected, with both initial and continuing claims drifting higher—suggesting layoffs remain contained, but rehiring/placement may be a touch less smooth.
What it means:
Initial claims are still in a range consistent with a resilient labor market, but the rise in continuing claims and the higher 4-week average hint at slightly less tight conditions—people may be taking longer to find a new job.
USD angle:
This is mildly USD-negative at the margin if it reinforces a cooling-growth/cooling-labor narrative, but it’s not a “breakdown” signal—claims remain far from recessionary levels.
U.S. existing home sales fell sharply in January, missing expectations by a wide margin and signaling a cooling turn in housing turnover as affordability and mortgage-rate pressure lingered.
The data point to a material slowdown in transaction volume, a key real-economy channel that can spill into related spending (renovation, furnishings) if weakness persists.
USD angle:
Housing data is usually a second-tier FX driver, but a miss of this size can be mildly USD-negative if it reinforces a broader “growth cooling” narrative and nudges rate expectations lower.
U.S. Treasury auctions delivered a split but telling signal: ultra-short bills priced unchanged, while the long bond stopped at a lower yield, hinting at firmer demand for duration.
Market takeaway:
The flat bill prints say front-end funding costs are stable, while the drop in the 30Y stop suggests duration demand is improving—often consistent with a market leaning toward slower growth and/or lower long-run inflation risk.
USD angle:
A lower 30Y yield can be mildly USD-negative at the margin via the long-end rates channel, but FX impact typically depends on whether the broader curve follows through—not just auction pricing.
Rate expectations are leaning heavily toward a Federal Reserve pause. CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 94.6% probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in March, with a still-elevated 78% probability of no change in April.
The setup reinforces a higher-for-longer baseline into early spring—typically supportive for front-end yields and potentially the USD, unless incoming inflation or labor data forces a fast repricing.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright arrived in Venezuela and is expected to meet Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, senior government officials, and representatives from major oil companies—signaling Washington’s highest-level, energy-focused engagement with the OPEC producer in decades.
The visit comes as Venezuela advances sweeping oil-sector reforms aimed at attracting foreign and private investment and weakening PDVSA’s long-standing monopoly—including provisions that expand private control over production/marketing and add legal protections such as independent arbitration to reassure investors wary of past expropriations.
U.S. markets got a mixed but largely low-drama fiscal-and-rates update: the 10-year Treasury auction cleared essentially unchanged, while the January budget deficit narrowed versus last year but came in a touch wider than expected.
The stop was nearly flat, signaling stable demand and pricing around current yield levels.
The deficit improved materially from the prior period, but slightly missed expectations.
USD angle:
With the 10Y auction basically unchanged, the immediate rates impulse is minimal. A modestly wider-than-expected deficit is usually not a day-to-day FX catalyst, but persistent fiscal gaps can matter over time through the supply and term-premium channel.
Bloomberg reports President Donald Trump has been privately asking White House officials why the U.S. shouldn’t withdraw from the USMCA trade pact with Mexico and Canada, a move that would reopen major uncertainty for North American supply chains just months before the agreement’s built-in review milestone.
The timing matters: USMCA’s first “joint review” is scheduled for July 1, 2026 (six years after the pact entered into force on July 1, 2020). Under the review clause, the three countries can table recommendations and decide whether to extend the agreement’s term; the review process is separate from the treaty’s withdrawal provision, which allows exit with six months’ written notice.
Markets will read any credible exit signaling as a tariff / rules-of-origin risk for autos, manufacturing, agriculture, and cross-border energy flows—typically negative for MXN and CAD risk sentiment, even before any formal notice is filed.
U.S. mortgage data showed steady rates and a calmer demand picture, with applications barely down after a sharp drop the week before—though purchase activity softened while refinancing ticked higher.
USD angle:
This is generally a second-tier macro input for FX. Flat rates with stabilizing applications is a “steady housing” signal, but the dollar will still be driven primarily by Fed pricing, growth/inflation data, and risk sentiment.
The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI showed U.S. consumer sentiment essentially unchanged in February, slipping by just a hair.
The near-flat reading suggests households’ mood is stable rather than improving, reinforcing a “steady but cautious” demand backdrop.
USD angle: With no meaningful move, this is typically FX-neutral, unless it’s part of a broader cluster of weakening (or strengthening) consumer indicators.
The January U.S. jobs report landed stronger than expected on hiring and hotter on wages, a combination that can keep the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” narrative in play even as labor-market slack remains contained.
Key prints (Jan):
Under the hood, manufacturing payrolls turned positive (+5K), while government payrolls were a drag (-42K). The report also flagged benchmark-related adjustments (notably negative), which markets will watch for what they imply about the true level of employment over time.
Market takeaway: a beat on jobs + firmer wages is typically USD- and yields-supportive on first read, because it reduces the urgency for near-term easing—even if revisions/benchmarks muddy the longer-run signal.